YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 2/10/2012

2012-02-11T08:48:00.000-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

As major stock indexes approached the key resistance level, stocks had the first down week since the beginning of the year. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1342 down 0.17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.47%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.06%.

From the weekly chart of S&P 500, we can see that this rally has been very strong, and its trending slope is similar to the rally we had in September 2010. The last rally ran into several head wind in 2011, struggled to consolidate above its trend line and ended up giving back all the gain it had. Without man made economic crisis and natural disaster, I expect this rally to last longer than the last one as economy picking up steam. However, the way up is not always a straight line, we will see some bumps along the way.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/3/2012

2012-02-04T07:51:00.004-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Economy added 243000 jobs in January more than the 150000 jobs predicted by economists and the unemployment decreased to 8.3% from 8.5% in December. Boosted by the strong economy data, DJIA and NASDAQ reached their highest level in 3 years. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1344 up 2.17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.59%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 3.16%.

As US economy getting stronger, financial and basic material sectors are moving up in the sector fund ranking tables while Housing and Biotec sectors remain on the top. For global regions, Brazil and China have moved up fast and are holding the top ranks. S&P is approaching the resistance level of 1350-1360 in the coming weeks. It will be interesting to see how the index reacts to this key resistance level.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/27/2012

2012-01-28T08:10:00.000-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Company earnings have been strong, but 4th quarter US GDP came in at 2.8% less than the 3.1% predicted by the economists. Stocks were mixed with the SP 500 index closed this week at 1316 up 0.07%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.47%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 1.07%.

With the global economy backdrop, performance of US stocks has been stronger than the other global regions/countries. S&P 500 index is well above its trend line with high momentum, indicating that the rally will last for a while. Weekly chart shows a resistance around 1360 and we may see some consolidation at that level in the coming weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/20/2011

2012-01-21T09:38:00.001-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIUIX, Buy FRESX
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell CASH, Buy IOO.

Stock market has a good start so far for the year with major indexes going up for the third week. Tech company earnings announcements this week have been strong, with Intel, IBM and Microsoft beating street expectation despite Google's miss. SP 500 index closed this week at 1315 up 2.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.4%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 2.8%. We are in the midst of earning report season. Apple, Yahoo, Ford, McDonald, and Netflix are due to report their quarterly earnings next week. It will be interesting to see how markets react to them.

With the trading signals this week, our model portfolios are all in offensive positions. US market and its sectors have been strong for a while and the international regions which have been lagging the US are turning around. There is quite a room to grow if we can sustain the momentum through out the year.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/13/2012

2012-01-14T08:49:00.001-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42535, Buy 05087(LSV LGE CP VALUE EQ).

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IDU, Buy IBB.
Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Rating downgrade of the euro zone countries dampened investors' confidence on Friday, but all major indexes still managed to post a small gain for the week. SP 500 index closed this week at 1289 up 0.88%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 1.36%.

Trading signals have turned positive one by one in our ranking tables as momentum of growth stock funds outpace the defensive utility or bond funds. This week, RSP model portfolio is moving from defensive PIMCO REAL RETRUN fund to a more aggressive large cap value stock fund, and in the ETF ranking table, signal was generated to move from utility sector fund to biotech sector fund. For our FEMKX timing model, which use STO as trading signal, a buy signal was trigger as its STO climb above the threshold of 50 (see chart below). The system has stayed away from the market for about 5 months since the last trade in August. The chart shows that the momentum indicator has climbed above 50 but the price is still below the trend line. A reversal of the trend will need the price to climb above the trend line for confirmation. Trading with this signal then is a bit risky, and a conservative trade will be to wait for the price to climb above the trend line. However, the FEMKX timing signals have been robust until the last trade in July-August so we shall see how this one performs.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/6/2012

2012-01-07T08:10:00.001-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IDU, Buy ITB.

Economy added more than 200,000 jobs in December exceeded market expectation, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.3%. As economy picking up steam, so is investors' confidence. All Major indexes ended the week higher than last week. SP 500 index closed this week at 1277 up 1.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.17%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 2.65%.

Following the footstep of SELECT model portfolio, the sETF model portfolio issued a signal to move position from defensive utility sector (IDU) to a more aggressive housing/construction sector(ITB). The weekly chart below shows its upward price movement and high momentum indicator.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/30/2011

2011-12-31T09:55:00.000-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell IUTIX, Buy NSVAX.

Investors' mind are still focused on the festivity of the holidays and not on the tradings in the last trading week of the year. Major indexes ended the week about where they were in the beginning of the week. SP 500 index closed this week at 1257 down 0.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.62%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.52%.

After holding Columbia treasury index fund, IUTIX, for 6 months, trading signals occurs in our HSA model portfolio as more stock funds gaining momentum and push the rank of IUTIX out of the top five funds. The holding has been replaced with a more aggressive small cap value fund, NSVAX.

S&P 500 started this year at 1257 and ended at 1257 with no gain for the year. In the beginning of the year, economy recovery was gaining traction, more new jobs were created and the index went up for January, February, March and reached the height of 1363 on April 29. At that time it appeared we were going to have another blockbuster year for stock markets. But suddenly the economy landscape changed: first, Japan hit by tsunami which caused nuclear scare and auto parts shortage, and quenched the manufacturing activity. Following the natural disaster was the human political gridlock at Washington D.C., where politician stuck to their party ideology and failed to reach agreement on raising government debt ceiling to keep it running. The action shattered investors' confidence and cost the triple A standing of the US government debt. Not to be outdone by United States, the European national debt crisis came to limelight and became a bigger problem, insolvency concern spread from Greece to Span, Ireland, and even Italy. With these speed bumps, manufacturing slowed, consumer tighten and company stopped hiring. Sensing the weakness in the economy, the S&P 500 index stopped its climb and headed south. It plummeted 220 points in six weeks from July 11 to August 22, and reached the low of the year on October 3 at 1099, 19% below the high of 1363. US economy has since then performed better than the rest of the world. Its economy growth is still slow but steady, jobless claim were down and consumers seemed to come back to the market place, and S&P 500 index has climbed to end at where it was at the start of the year.

Weekly chart shows that S&P 500 index is still above its trend line and gaining momentum. Hopefully it will stay there and slowly change the direction of the trend line from downward slope to a positive one next year. As for the global regions, I think they will still under perform US markets at least for the first half of next year due to the lingering of European debt concern. Happy New Year and Happy Trading!

Fund Rankings Update, 12/23/2011

2011-12-24T09:45:00.001-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Just I said last week that Santa is not coming to Wall Street, miracle happened. SP 500 index went up four straight days and closed this week at 1265 up 3.74%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.60%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 2.48%.

Without a clear market direction, most of our holdings in the model portfolios are in funds with defense natures. However, US economy growth, albeit slow, is currently leading the the global economy. From SELECT ranking table, we can see quite a few industrial sectors with positive momentum indicators. Our current holding, FSHOX, still hold the number one rank and has stayed there for four weeks. Its weekly chart shows that the price is above the trend line and is gaining momentum. Hopefully this trade will turn into a profitable one.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Fund Rankings Update, 12/16/2011

2011-12-17T10:28:00.001-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FOCPX, Buy FIUIX
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSRPX, Buy FSHOX

European debt crisis is still the big elephant in the room, and it seems that Santa is not coming to Wall street this year. SP 500 index closed this week at 1219 down 2.83%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.61%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 3.46%. S&P 500 index is still dancing around its 28 week moving average. It failed to stay above the trend line this week and showed a lower high formation. There is a strong resistance at 1250 level and we may stuck in the trading channel of 1150 - 1250 for a while.

Since the rally in early October fails to turn into a sustainable up-trend, the SSPP and SELECT model portfolios switch their holdings to more defensive funds, FIUIX and FSHOX respectively this week and incur some loss.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/9/2011

2011-12-10T08:37:00.001-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Investors were encouraged by the progress coming from European summit to solve their debt crisis. SP 500 index closed this week at 1255 up 0.88%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.37%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 0.76%. S&P 500 index is right at the top of the trading channel. It will be interesting to see how it behave this time.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/2/2011

2011-12-03T08:45:00.001-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Good retail sales from Black Friday and Cyber Monday as well as gleams of hope for European debt crisis propelled stocks to have the best week in two years . SP 500 index closed this week at 1244 up 7.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 7.01%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 7.59%.

We have experienced dramatic volatility in the past few weeks. Major stock indexes went up and down for more than 4% in a week. From the weekly chart, S&P 500, after failing to hold above the trend line in October, dipped to 1150 and bounced back above the trend line again. Short term, there is a support at 1120 level, and there seems to be a resistance at around 1250 which is where we are right now. It will be very interesting to see if the index will hold up and break the resistance this time.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/25/2011

2011-11-26T11:34:00.001-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

After failing to stay above the trend line last week, all the major indexes collapsed on the downside. SP 500 index closed this week at 1158 down 4.69%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.78%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 5.09%.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/18/2011

2011-11-18T18:56:00.001-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Fear of European debt crisis come back to haunt the Wall Street. All three major indexes closed this week above their 28 week moving average. SP 500 index closed this week at 1215 down 3.81%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.94%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 3.97%.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/11/2011

2011-11-12T07:15:00.001-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Stocks succesfully tested the support after breaking the trend line. All three major indexes closed this week above their 28 week moving average. SP 500 index closed this week at 1263 up 0.85%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.42%, while the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.28%.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/4/2011

2011-11-05T10:33:00.000-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell CASH, Buy FOCPX

Just as we thought the European debt crisis may be behind us, it came right back to haunt the investors' again. SP 500 index closed this week at 1253 down 2.48%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.03%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.86%.

In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, we can see the index is testing the support line after breaking above it last week. The rally will be sustained if the test is successful, and we will find that out in the next couple of weeks.

Due to seasonal effect, technology sectors have shown stronger momentum than the other sectors during this rally. The technology laden OTC portfolio, FOCPX, grab the number one rank in the SSPP ranking table and a trading signal was issued to sell Cash and buy FOCPX. Note that this is the second week that we are taking a more aggressive position (We issued signal to sell FSLXX and buy FSRPX in SELECT model portfolio last week).

Fund Rankings Update, 10/28/2011

2011-10-29T09:52:00.001-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSLXX, Buy FSRPX

European countries' action to tackle their debt crisis boosted investors confidence. Stocks continued their rebound with all major indexes breaking their downward trend line. S&P 500 index closed this week at 1285 up 3.78%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.58%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 3.78%.

In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the momentum indicator is climbing above 50, and the price is breaking above the 28 week moving average trend line. We need to wait for the confirmation signal to validate that this rally can turn into a sustainable up trend.

The US sector funds have quickly regained their momentum after this strong market rebound. In the SELECT ranking table the money market fund has been pushed down below the7th rank. Accordingly, a trading signal is issued to sell FSLXX and buy the top ranked fund FSRPX for our SELECT model portfolio.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/21/2011

2011-10-22T09:45:00.002-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Strong company earning overcame the profit taking in the beginning of the week and kept the stock rally going. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 1238 up 1.12%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.41%, while the Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.14%.

It is encouraging to see S&P 500 index stay above the top of the trading channel at 1220 after breaking it last week. However, the downward trend line provide a stronger resistance at 1257 as seen from the weekly chart below. The index is at the critical juncture as its momentum indicator, STO, is trying to break above 50 and the price is attacking to the trend line.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/14/2011

2011-10-15T09:49:00.001-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell CASH, Buy IDU.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell CASH, Buy IDU.

Technical rebound and better than expected economy news propelled the major stock indexes to the top the their trading channel. S&P 500 index closed this week at 1224 up 5.98%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.88%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 7.6%.

In two weeks, S&P 500 index has climbed from the bottom of the trading channel at 1120 to the top of the channel at 1220. It will be interesting to see which way index is heading next week. Will the expected good company earnings help the index to break the resistance or traders will take profits and capped the its upward movement.

After one month in cash position, ETF and sETF model portfolios have moved to Utility sector due to its positive AMI. Since Utility sector is very defensive in nature, I would stay with cash position and skip this trade.

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Fund Rankings Update, 10/7/2011

2011-10-08T09:54:00.000-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Economy added more than 100,000 jobs in September, which eased a bit the investors' fear of double dip recession in US. Stocks rebounded from the key support level at 1120 of S&P 500 index. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1155 up 2.12%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.74%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 2.65%.

I have not discussed our FEMKX timing model for a while and would like to give an update this week. The model has been very consistent in issuing trading signals at the right time (see trading log in Select_Log page). The model uses STO[15,1] as trading signal. It will buy into the fund if the STO climbs above 50 and sell the fund if STO falls down below 75. In the last trade, the model bought FEMKX when its STO climbed above 50 in July. After the buy signal, the STO never reached above 70 and fell back below 50. The model then move to cash position after holding the fund for more than a month with 14% loss. This was a failed "buy" signal in action and it cost more than a regular buy and sell signal. FEMKX closed this week at $20.15, 10.3% below our selling price of $22.46. From the weekly chart, there seems to be a support level at $19-$20, and it is currently trying the find comfort in that area. If it finds the support at this level, it will still take some time to consolidate and build a bottom there. In 2008, it moved to cash position for 290 days and finally move to long position at the end of March 2009. We have held cash for only 46 days right now and need to patiently wait for the "buy" signal.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/30/2011

2011-10-01T08:53:00.001-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FNMIX, Buy CASH.

September finally came to an end. With European debt crisis and weak US economy impacting investors' confidence, stocks experience the worst quarter since 2008. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1131 down 0.44%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.73%.

Due to negative AMI, SSPP model portfolio issued a trading signal to move to cash position. Looking back its trading records, only twice in the last 7 years had SSPP model portfolio trading moved to a cash position.The last time it moved to side line is at the end of July 2008. The S&P 500 kept falling afterwards and the portfolion stayed in cash position for more than 8 months before it enter the next trade. The economy condition may be different this time around but caution is always the best policy during uncertain time.

Fund rankings update, 9/23/2011

2011-09-24T08:39:00.002-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

After hitting the top of the trading channel, stocks came right down to the bottom this past week. The sell off started on Wednesday after the Fed released the statement pointing significant risk to the economy and stirred investors' fear of double dip recession. The sell off continued to Thursday and handed stock markets the worst week since October 2008. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1136 down 6.54%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.41%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 5.3%.

The weekly chart of S&P 500 index shows that we are at the critical 1120 support level. The index fell to 1123 five weeks ago, and rebounded to top of the trading channel at 1216 last week. The silver lining is that at the same support level, the momentum indicator(STO) is higher right now than five weeks ago. I hope the index can successfully test this support, forms a classical double bottom, and slowly reverses the trend.

Fund rankings update, 9/16/2011

2011-09-16T21:58:00.001-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

After a few weeks in over sold condition, stocks finally had a nice technical rebound. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1216 up 5.35%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.7%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 6.25%. Notice that S&P 500 index is still trading within the range of 1120 and 1250. The first step to reverse the down trend is for S&P 500 index to break the upper bound of 1250.

From the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the momentum index, STO, is moving up and the price is trading in the rising channel. These are all good signs, however, one week up does not make the trend. Before the STO climbing above 50, we will wait patiently on the sideline.

Fund rankings update, 9/9/2011

2011-09-09T21:53:00.000-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FDLSX, Buy FSLXX.
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell EWJ Buy CASH.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWM Buy CASH.

President Obama's plan failed to jolt the stock markets while European debt crisis is still haunting investors. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1154 down 1.68%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.21%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.5%.

Our model portfolios have either moved to income oriented funds or to cash position due to negative AMI's. In this kind of market conditions, defensive positions will let you sleep better at night. We just have to patiently wait for the market uptrend to comeback.

PS. If you would like to have a google+ account (don't need to add me to your circle), you can click the invitation below:
https://plus.google.com/_/notifications/ngemlink?path=%2F%3Fgpinv%3DNHHXnAtegY4%3ARUaA-zeGxXI

Fund Rankings Update, 9/2/2011

2011-09-02T22:28:00.002-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEZ Buy CASH.

The upward momentum at the start of the week turned sour as consumer confidence is at its worst level since April 2009, and the economy did not generate any job growth in August. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1173 down 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.39%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 0.02%.

Technically there is a resistance around 1250 in weekly chart of S&P 500 index. The index closed at 1220 on Wednesday and failed to broke the resistance in the subsequent attempts because of the weak momentum. From the price action in the past few weeks, we may see the index stay in the trading range of 1120 and 1250.

PS. If you would like to have a google+ account (don't need to add me to your circle), you can click the invitation below:
https://plus.google.com/_/notifications/ngemlink?path=%2F%3Fgpinv%3DNHHXnAtegY4%3ARUaA-zeGxXI

Fund Rankings Update, 8/26/2011

2011-08-26T23:14:00.006-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FRESX Buy FNMIX.

Stock markets, trying to build a bottom, turned in a nice rebound from their support level this past week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1176 up 4.74%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.32%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 5.89%.

Last week I pointed out that there is a support at 1100-1120 for S&P 500 index, and I am glad to see the support held up well and the index had a nice technical rebound. However, judging from the severity of this correction and the weakness of the investor's sentiment, the index will stay below the trend line for a while and the support may be tested again in the future.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/19/2011

2011-08-19T22:29:00.005-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash.

Fear prevailed on Wall street and the major stock indexes plunged again. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1123 down 4.69%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.01%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 6.62%. Technically S&P 500 index is at the short term support level around 1100-1120. I hope the support level can hold and the index can stabilize at this level.

Our FEMKX timing model has issued a sell signal. Its momentum indicator, STO[15,1], has failed to reach beyond 70 after climbed above 50 a month ago and dipped below 50 again 2 weeks ago. After holding the fund for 32 days, we will take the loss for this trade and move to the side line.

Fund Rankings Updates, 8/12/2011

2011-08-12T23:27:00.006-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

S&P 's downgrade of US debt triggered stormy reactions from investors. Stock markets went though a wildest ride this past week which can be illustrated by Dow Jones Industrial Average's triple-digit swing every day. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1178 down 1.72%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.53%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.96%.

After violently fell through the trend line, S&P 500 index is looking for a support level to build the base as shown in the weekly chart. Right now we are just in the initial phase when the index abruptly fell below the trend line and the momentum indicator headed downward rapidly. It will take a while for the index to find a comfort zone and stabilize there. So the questions are, where is the base and how long will it stay there. From the weekly chart, the index bounced off the intra-week low of 1100 indicating that there may be a short term support. From the past two similar situations in September 2008 and April 2010, it took markets about 6 -7 months to recover from the initial collapse and that may give us some idea about the duration. Fundamentally, the support level and duration are determined by whether we are already in a economic recession, heading toward a recession, or if we can avoid the recessionary path and return to the growth.

The intensity of this market collapse can also be observed in the ranking tables. The AMI indicator has turn negatives for number one rank funds in several ranking tables which do not contain bond or income funds. This only happened once during January-March time frame in 2009, but that time markets had stayed in the bottom for a while and poised for a rally. No doubt that the market volatility have increased greatly in the recent years due to trading technology advancement. Sell-offs are getting more abrupt and intense while rallies are gradual and slow. By using weekly closing prices, smoothing algorithm, and holding periods, I have tried to reduced the effect from market volatility. But no strategy is hundred percent as human psychology is erratic and unpredictable. We just have to accept that loss is part of the stock/fund tradings.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/5/2011

2011-08-05T19:10:00.005-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42627, Buy 42635.
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBIOX, Buy FDLSX.
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy EWJ.
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWY, Buy EWM.

Investors' fear of recession coupled with frustration towards politician's inability to resolve US long term debt issue have finally dragged the market down big time, and delivered Wall Street the worst week in two years. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1199 down 7.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.75%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 8.13%!

The weekly chart of S&P 500 index shows the severity of the selling. The index has struggled above the trend line in the past few weeks, and fallen sharply below the support with momentum indicator fell from 70 to 40 in one week. The broad based intensive selling has dramatically changed the momentum rankings in our ranking tables. Almost all the ranking tables have issued trading signals and moved to safer positions. Looking back at our trading history, the last time this happened is in August 2008 before the financial breakdown. Although economic conditions are quite different then and now, stock chart pattern provided similar technical concerns. It is important to follow through whatever the investing strategies you have especially during these kind of periods as they can prevent emotional tradings out of fear.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/29/2011

2011-07-30T04:57:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IHF, Buy IEZ.

As we approach the August 2 deadline for debt ceiling and still have no resolution in sight, investors' confidence starts crumpling. Making matter worse, the second quarter GDP number released Friday is lower than expect and the first quarter GDP was revised down to 0.4%, indicating that economy was barely growing in the first half of the year. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1292 down 3.92%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.24%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 3.58%. Good corporate earnings have been offset by poor economy data and stalemate in Washington. Hopefully next week, politicians can stop playing games to reach an agreement and move the country forward.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/22/2011

2011-07-23T08:28:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIUIX, Buy FRESX.

Good company earnings lifted the stock markets. The S&P 500 index closed this wee

k at 1345 up 2.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.61%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.47%. All major indexes rebounded from their support this week, indicating continuation of the rally (see chart below). However, with politicians in Washington still can not reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling as August 2 deadline is around the corner, we do not know how stocks will react next week.

GM has modified the fund lineup in its retirement plan again. Quite a few Fidelity mutual funds have been phased out and replaced with privately managed funds. The RSP fund ranking table has now been updated with the 32 funds in the program. The momentum indexes of the new funds will not be accurate for a while since no history prices are available for calculation. The RSP model portfolio was not affected by this change as the holding fund, SSGA REIT INDEX, stays with the program.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/15/2011

2011-07-15T20:51:00.009-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell CASH, Buy FEMKX

Investors turned their attention to the August 2 deadline for US to raise it debt limit. With political bickering going on in Washington, the uncertainty dragged down the stock markets. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1316 down 2.06%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.4%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.45%. After breaking the trend line on the upside, all major indexes came back down to test their support this week. The rally will continue, if the trend lines are successfully tested in the next couple of weeks.

After staying at the side line for 2 months, the FEMKX timing model has issued a buy signal again. The system uses the technical indicator, slow STO[15,1], as trading signals. The model will buy FEMKX when its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold the fund for at least 30 days and sell the fund if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. The trading record of FEMKX timing model can be seen in the Select_Log page. FEMKX recently broke its trendline an its slow STO[15,1] went up to 53, above our buying threshold. Our last trade produced a minor loss due to market volatility. Hopefully this trade will be profitable.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/8/2011

2011-07-09T09:22:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Friday's ugly job report for June poured cold water to the enthusiasm of investors. In the report, economy only added 18,000 jobs in June far less than the 154,000 jobs that was expected, and unemployment rate ticked up to 9.2%. With demand still growing, economists think that the recovery although weak is still intact and should pick up steam in the second half of the year. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1343 up 0.31%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.59%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 1.55%.

Last week, all the three major indexes climbed above their trend lines, and this week, all of their momentum indicators broke above 50. Based on these signals, I think the correction has ended and the intermediate up trend will continue.

Canadian Rockies, 7/1 - 7/7

2011-07-08T13:43:00.020-04:00

We went to Canadian Rockies for a 7 day trip from July 1 to July 7. More pictures from the trip are posted on Facebook. Here are some highlight from our trip:

7/1, Flew to Calgary and drive to Banff. Explore the towns site and watch Canada Day Parade.

7/2, Drive to Lake Louise and hike to Lake Agnes. Went to Moraine Lake and took Gondola at Lake Louise ski area.

7/3, Drove around scenic Lake Minnewanka Loop Drive, headed up Bow Valley Parkway to Johnston Canyon. It rained for an hour (the only rain during our trip). Went back to Banff, and visit Fairmont Banff Hotspring Resort.

7/4, Drove up Ice Filed Parkway to Jasper. Stopped at Columbia Ice Field Center and took snocoach tour to Athabasca Glacier.

7/5, Took boat tour at Maligne Lake, walked trail at Maligne Canyon. Drove to Mt. Edith Cavell for a close up view of Angel Glacier.

7/6, Stopped at Athabasca Falls en route back to Lake Louise and Banff.

7/7. Drove to Calgary and flew back home.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/1/2011

2011-07-02T00:39:00.002-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Ease of Greece debt crisis and the surprising good US manufacturing data in June gave the over sold market reasons to rally. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1339 up 5.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.43%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 6.15%. It is a good sign that all the three major indexes climbed above their trend lines and their momenta are turning upwards. Hopefully this signals the end of the correction and stock market will go back to its upward trajectory.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/24/2011

2011-06-24T21:41:00.003-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CLSPX, Buy IUTIX

Uncertainty about European debt crisis and robustness of US economy still depress investors' confidence. In a move to drag down the oil price and boost economy, the international community decided to release their strategic reserve of petroleum at the same time. This government intervention also did not bode well for investors. Commodity prices and stock prices all went down since the announcement. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1268 down 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.58%, while the over-sold Nasdaq composite index got a technical rebound and increased 1.39%.

In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, we can see the divergent between its price movement and momentum indicator in April. While the price was making a new high in April, its momentum indicator was actually declining. I have pointed out my concern about this divergence in the blog dated 5/27. Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 index fell below its trend line and its momentum indicator was falling fast. Since then, the index has been trying to find a support while the momentum indicator fell to oversold area this week. The correction will not be over before the momentum indicator changes its direction and the price goes back up above the trend line. Only at that time, we will know the length (last time, the index stayed below the trend line for about 4 months before it resumed its up trend) and the intensity of this correction.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/17/2011

2011-06-17T22:40:00.002-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average finally stopped 6 week of loosing steak but NASDAQ composite index still kept marching downward. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1271 up 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.44%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.03%. Fear of the ripple effect from Greece debt crisis and uncertainty about the end of QE2 which will happen at the end of June kept investors on the side line. In this bearish environment, defensive funds such as utility and healthcare have risen in the ranking tables, and some of our model portfolios also have moved to defensive positions to reflect this market correction. We do not know when the market will finish this correction phase and turn around. We can only hope the end of the tunnel is near.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/10/2011

2011-06-11T07:15:00.005-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDSCX, Buy FIUIX

Fear of economy slow down weighed on the markets this week and stocks suffered the sixth week of loss since end of April. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1270 down 2.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.64%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 3.26%. The weekly chart of S&P 500 index below shows that the index has decisively fallen below its support at 1300, and its momentum is getting worse. As discussed last week, the next support level is around 1220, and this correction will last for a while. Note that, the 1300 level becomes a resistance now.

Withe the correction in progress, the SSPP model portfolio has issued a trading signal. It rotates out of the more aggressive small cap fund, FDSCX, and move to a more defensive utility fund, FIUIX.

While reviewing the ranking tables, I also found that, the fund prices for SSGA REIT index, SSGA mid/small cap index and SSGA emerging market index in the RSP ranking tables are not very up-to-date for the past few weeks. As a result, their AMI rankings may not be very accurate. Since these funds are not public traded, I have no other sources to obtain the quotes other than logging into my 401k plan website to manually retrieve them every week. In a month, more fidelity funds will be phased out in RSP and new private funds will be added due to plan change . Rankings of the new funds will be even more difficult at that time.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/3/2011

2011-06-03T21:02:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

All the economy data (consumer confidence, manufacturing activities, jobs report, .etc.) came out weak this week suggesting that the economy recovery has hit a soft patch in the month of May. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1300 down 2.32%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.33%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.29%.

As shown in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index below, the index is falling right on the trend line and the momentum index is heading downward. It is critical to see if the index can bounce back from this support level. If the current 1300 support fails to hold, the next level will be around 1220.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/27/2011

2011-05-28T07:11:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Mixed bag of economy data this week provided little direction for stock markets. Stocks drifted lower for the fourth week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1331 down 0.16%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.56%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.23% for the week. Weekly chart of S&P 500 index shows that the index is testing the trend line. The concern I have from technical point of view is that the momentum indicator is drifting downward and is showing divergent pattern with the price movement. Anyway, we will know the outcome of this test in a few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/20/2011

2011-05-20T22:21:00.002-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42632 (Small CAP growth), Buy 42627 (REIT index).

Stocks drifted lower this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1333 down 0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.66%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.89% for the week. Stocks are moving side way and it looks like this side way movement will last for another few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/13/2011

2011-05-14T11:18:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYE, Buy IBB.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEZ, Buy IHF.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH.

With dollar gets stronger, the emergent markets and commodity markets faltered. US stock market, on the other hand, fared better. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1337 down 0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.34%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased 0.03% for the week.

This week with the volatility in oil prices, we've seen the money rotated out of the oil related sectors into healthcare/biotech sectors and trading signals were issued in ETF and sETF model protfolios respectively. The stronger dollars also caused the momentum indicator of FEMKX to drop down to 71, below the selling threshold of 75 and a sell signal is issued for FEMKX timing model.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/6/2011

2011-05-07T07:13:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSESX, Buy FBIOX.

Silver price crashed first and the Oil price followed. Collapes of these commodity prices put pressure on the stock market. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1340 down 1.72%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.34%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.60% for the week.

The months of May and June are usually "cool" months for stock markets, and the action of major indexes in this first week of May kind of validate that. The good company earning news and stronger than expected job growth in April failed to inspired investors. However, I do not see any disruption to the up-trend from technical point of view. Momentum of The S&P 500 index is still high and the prices is still above the trend line as observed in the weekly chart below.

Sharp drop in the oil price triggered the selling signal in our SELECT model portfolio. We will sell energy service sector fund, FSESX and buy the current top rank fund, FBIOX (bio technology).

Fund Rankings Update, 4/29/2011

2011-04-23T12:49:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWC, Buy EWY.

Strong company earnings bostted stocks market again. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1363 up 1.96%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.44%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased 1.89% for the week.

From May 2, some funds in our Health Saving Account (HSA) program will be retired, and more funds will be added to the program. Some of the remaining funds also have changed their symbols. To reflect these changes, I have revamped the HSA ranking table, and HSA model portfolio. I have selected 20 funds out of the 23 funds in the program for momentum ranking. The funds with symbol changes are:

CBSAX-->>CLSPX

COVAX-->>NSVAX

NAESX-->>NAESX

VIMSX-->>VIMSX

CMUAX-->>NAMAX

NLGIX-->>NGPAX

NBIAX-->>NBGPX

NLFAX-->>CLGZX

Fund Rankings Update, 4/22/2011

2011-04-22T10:06:00.009-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Led by strong company earnings from technology companies, stocks went up broadly this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1337 up 1.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.33%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased 2.01% for the week.

To continue and conclude my analysis of APPLE and GOOGLE from last week, here is what transpired this week: On Monday, Apple's price did a intra day reversal. It went down to a low of 320 but came right back and ended the day up at 332. From then on, the price went up non-stop and closed this week at 350. From the weekly chart, we can see its price bounces above the trend line and the momentum is turning upward. Resumption of the up trend will be confirmed when it breaks the previous high of 360. A conservative investor will take position after the confirmation while a more risk tolerant investor will take position now. Now, turning our attention to Google. With deteriorating momentum, its price went down 1.0% this week at a time when technology companies are leading the stock market higher. It may look like there is a temporary support around 525 for Google but I think 500 is a better bet from the weekly chart.

Fund Rankings Update, 4/15/2011

2011-04-15T22:17:00.007-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks were in a consolidation mode. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1319 down 0.64%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 031%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.57% for the week. A lot of companies will report earnings in the next 2 weeks. How stocks react to these announcements will tell us whether they are going up or going down.

Although I mainly focus on analyzing price charts of ETF and mutual funds, sometimes I come across some interesting stock charts that I woule like to share. Due to poor earning report Google's stock price went down $48 (8.26%) today. Google and Apple are the two major tech companies competing in the smart phone and tablet area. Let's compare the weekly charts of these 2 companies. Apple has been going higher an higher since March 2009. Every time the price touch the trend line and the momentum indicator fell below 50, it came right back and resume its up trend. Currently, its price touches the trend line and the momentum indicator falls below 50 again. It will be interesting to see if it can repeat its previous pattern to resume the up trend. On the other hand, Google's 2009 rally has been interrupted in March 2010. After six months, its price went back above trend line, but failed to go higher. The price went side way for 5 months, went down below the trend line in March this year and failed to break above it at the end of March. Its momentum is going downward and I suspect the price will go down to 500 - 450 level.

Fund Rankings Update, 4/8/2011

2011-04-08T21:34:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks were mostly flat this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1328 down 0.32%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.03%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.33% for the week.

Technically, S&P500 index is still hovering above the trend line in the weekly chart, and its momentum indicator has climbed back above 80 after went down to 70 two weeks ago. It looks like the index is moving side way before it breaks above the previous high of 1343.

Fund Rankings Update, 4/1/2011

2011-04-01T21:11:00.007-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks boosted by good job report continued their march upward. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1332 up 1.42%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.28%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased 1.7% for the week.

After staying at the side line for 2 months, our FEMKX timing model has issued a buy signal again. The FEMKX timing model is different than the momentum ranking system. It uses the technical indicator, slow STO[15,1], as trading signals. The model will buy FEMKX when its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold the fund for at least 30 days and sell the fund if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. The trading record of FEMKX timing model can be seen in the Select_Log page. In the weekly chart of FEMKX below, we can see that after we sold FEMKX at the end of January, the fund has successfully tested the support (tend line) 3 times and recently broke the previous high of $26.64. In addition, its slow STO[15,1] shot up from 39 to 65 this week. This price action and the upswinging momentum bode well for a bullish argument for FEMKX.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/25/2011

2011-03-25T23:35:00.003-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWG, Buy EWC

Better economy news and strong company earnings helped stocks rebound from their support levels. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1313 up 2.70%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.05%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased3.76% for the week.

There was not much change in the sector trend. The energy related sectors still hold top momentum rankings among US domestic sectors, while global regions are still struggling to find a major theme. Our holding of EWG in iETF model portfolio has dropped below 7th rank and is replaced by EWC.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/18/2011

2011-03-18T20:04:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Uncertainty due to Japan's nuclear crisis dragged down the stock market for another week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1279 down 1.92%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.54%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index suffered a loss of 2.65% for the week.

In the last blog post, I pointed out that stock market is due for a technical consolidation or correction. If you look at the weekly chart of S&P 500 index below, you can see that the price is heading down toward the trend line and its momentum (STO[15,1]) is declining fast. Holding at the support will be the key to keep this rally going and we shall see how things develop in the next few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/11/2011

2011-03-12T07:02:00.004-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Market was affected not by economy new but by political development in the middle east and the earthquake and tsunami hitting Japan early Friday morning. Technically, I think the market is due for a consolidation or a correction. Stocks ended this week on the downside, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 1304 down 1.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.03%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 2.48% for the week.

While the overall market is heading toward consolidation or maybe even a correction, there was no change in sector leadership and regional leadership. Energy related sectors still dominate the SELECT and sETF ranking tables while Canada and west European countries are still leading the pack in iETF ranking table.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/4/2011

2011-03-04T22:13:00.005-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYM, Buy IYE.

Private sectors added more jobs in February and push the employment below 9%. This provides the final indicator that the economy recovery is in a sound footing. However, the unrest in the middle east which push the oil price to the highest level since 2008 may threaten the economy growth. Stocks ended this week almost flat, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 1321 up 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.33%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.13% for the week.

Energy related sectors still led the way in the US markets due the rising oil prices. In the ETF ranking table, IYM is pushing out of the top 10 ranking and causing our model portfolio to sell the fund and replace it with top ranked IYE. In global regions, Canada and Germany hold the top two momentum rankings.

Here is an update of our FEMKX timing model (I have not done this for a while), which trades only Fidelity Emergent Market Fund, FEMKX. The system will buy FEMKX if its technical momentum indicator, slow STO[15,1], climbs above 50, hold the fund at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. We sold FEMKX on 1/31/2011 and held cash on the side line since then. The STO[15,1] of FEMKX as shown in the chart below, went down to the low of 22 two weeks ago and bounced back afterwards. I am watching closely the price movement of FEMKX as its STO[15,1] currently stands at 40, and we will buy back FEMKX when its STO[15,1] climbs above 50. The trading record for the FEMKX timing model can be found in the "SELECT_Log" page.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/25/2011

2011-02-26T06:45:00.002-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSAVX, Buy FSESX.

Stocks' winning steak came to an end this past week. Unrest in Libya caused big volatility in oil price and sent stocks into the negative territory. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1319 down 1.72%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.1%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 1.87% for the week.

Small cap, and energy related sectors still led the way in the US markets. Oil price has been trending up and exhibited great volatility since "Jasmine revolution" in the middle east. In SELECT ranking table, automotive sector fund, FSAVX has fallen below 7th rank and is replaced with the current top ranked energy service fund, FSESX. Global markets still underperformed US markets. In the iETF ranking table the top ranked fund has been changed hands several times in the past three months, indicating that there is major investment theme in the global market.

This rally has been going on since last September, and it may need to take a break as investors re-assessing their portfolios in lieu of the political development in the middle east. We don't know where the market is heading until we get there. In the meantime, we can stick to our investment strategies and ride this uncertainty out.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/18/2011

2011-02-18T21:29:00.004-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWT, Buy EWG.

Stocks went up for the third week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1343 up 1.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.96%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.87% for the week.

Small cap, and energy related sectors are leading the way in the US markets, while Korea, and Taiwan lost their shine in global regions and replaced by Germany and Austria. Stocks in global regions still underperformed their US counterparts. Comparing the weekly charts of S&P500 index and FEMKX, we can see that S&P 500 index is still in the up trend with high momentum while FEMKX has been in the consolidation mode with falling momentum since last November.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/11/2011

2011-02-11T22:46:00.003-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks continued their climbing. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1329 up 1.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.5%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 1.45% for the week.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/4/2011

2011-02-05T07:48:00.003-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks chugged along and reached two year high. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1310 up 2.71%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.27%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 3.07% for the week.

Small cap, technology, and energy sectors are leading the way in the US markets, while Korea, and Taiwan maintains the top ranks in global regions. Look closely to iETF ranking table, we also noticed that the more developed countries such as Japan, Italy and Germany have come back in life in the past few weeks. However, the US domestic sectors still posses higher momentum than global regions, indicating the strength of US economy recovery. Some even said that we are no longer in the recovery phase but in the economy expansion phase.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/28/2011

2011-01-29T08:49:00.005-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX Timing model: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH.

Selling mood prevailed in the wall street. Investors unloaded their positions on any earning miss, so so economy data and unsettling political news from Egypt. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1275 down 0.55%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.41%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 0.1% for the week.

The momentum indicator STO[15,1] of FEMKX has dropped below the selling threshold of 75, and a sell signal has been issued. We have held FEMKX for about 180 days with a gain of 10%. According to our FEMKX timing rule, we will buy the fund if its STO climbs above 50 and sell the fund if its STO falls below 75. Detail trading record of the FEMKX timing model can be found in the SELECT_Log page.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/21/2011

2011-01-22T09:58:00.006-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSCHX, Buy FSAVX.

Cold weather chill investors' mood this week. Stocks ended up mixed this week due to mixed earning reports. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1283 down 0.76%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.72%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 2.39% for the week.

We have see profit taking this past week and most of the stocks ended down more than the major indexes. Next week, a quarter of the S&P 500 and half of the DOW stocks will report their quarterly earnings. Some companies reported strong earnings this past week but still see their stocks went down, so I expect that the profit taking action will continue next week. This rally has last for a while and need to take a break. Since we are in a multi-year up trend, any pull back will provide good entry point.

As of this morning, the servers at awardspace.com are still not back online. I have moved the pages to other hosting provider. The rankings tables and the trading logs should be up and viewable.

GM has changed the name of its 401k plan to RSP (Retirement Saving Plan), so I have changed the name of the nSSPP ranking table and trading log accordingly to reflect the change as well.

System outage, 1/21/2011

2011-01-21T20:21:00.002-05:00

Due to hard disk failure in my web hosting provider, the ranking posts were not available for the past couple of days and will not be available until the service is restore so than I can upload the ranking tables and trading logs for the week. According to their communication, the service should be back online tomorrow night. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/14/2011

2011-01-14T22:24:00.004-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Encouraged by the good company earnings, stocks continued their up trend this past week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1293 up 1.71%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.96%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 1.93% for the week.

Monthly chart of S&P 500 index below shows that the index is well above its trend line and the momentum has been strong since August 2010. It indicates that the multi-year up-trend is well under way.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/7/2011

2011-01-08T09:26:00.002-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks came out strong the first week of the new year. Job data on Friday indicated a slow but steady recovery. Technology sectors were boosted by the new products came out of the annual Consumer Electronic Show in Las Vegas. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1271 up 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.84%, and while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 1.9% for the week.

Again, we did not see any trend change this past week. Small cap, technology, auto and energy related sectors are still leading the way in US market due to the slow but robust economy growth. Global regions still lagged behind the US markets in performance because of the European debt concern and the government initiated slow down in China.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/31/2010

2010-12-31T17:35:00.015-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWH, Buy EWT

There was not much action on the Wall street for the last week of the year. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1257 up 0.07%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.03%, and while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 0.48% for the week.

Today is the last day of the year. Stocks closed this year with a double digit gain again, second year in a row. For the year, S&P 500 index went up 12.8%, Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 11.0% and the Nasdaq composite index gained 17.4%. However, the year-end numbers did not tell the whole story. All the gains actually came from second half of the year. Stocks started 2010 with a mild correction in January and continued their 2009 rally into April. However, with US' economy stimulus running out, Europe's debt crisis creeping up, and China's slowing down, investors started worrying about that the fragile recovery would fail and the economy would dipped back to recession. Lacking the investors' confidence, major indexes plummeted for 3 months from April to July. During this time, S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ gave up 23%, 20%, and 27% from their high respectively and were 7% - 8% below where they started at the beginning of the year. Although the economy data have been bad, the company earnings remained strong. With support from company earnings, stocks stopped the downward spiral and slowly climbed back. In addition, to keep the economy recovery on tack, the Fed has maintained the easy money policy, which also helped stock markets. Economy data eventually turned the corner, and stocks has been going up since July.

As U.S. economy seems to be on a growth path again, I expect that commodity and energy price will continue to rise in 2011, and auto industry will continue its recovery as these sectors have been occupying the top ranks in the SELECT ranking table for a while. Technology and small caps usually lead the way in the economy recovery phase, and I also expect that they will outperform the general market again next year. Low interest rate and slow but robust growth are what I think we will experience in the next year. On the global front, emergent markets are trying to control their growth and fighting inflations. They are also trying to change their export oriented economies into domestic consumer oriented economies, and these changes will make their growth more robust. Overall, I am optimistic about 2011.

To welcome the new year and to reflect my optimism, I have changed the color scheme of this blog to a brighter tone as well as the background picture. I also turned on the mobile viewing template for easy viewing from smart phones or i-pod touch (got to keep up with the mobile life style ^_^). Happy new year!!

Fund Rankings Update, 12/24/2010

2010-12-24T15:12:00.003-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading was thin for this short holiday week but stocks still managed to close the week higher. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1256 up 1.03%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.71%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.86% for the week.

Sensing the pick up in US' economy, oil price has risen above $90 and the price of other energy source has also risen in the past few weeks. We can see the ranks of oil/natural resource related funds rising in the Select and sETF ranking tables. In the global arena, rapid regional rotations have occurred after October. For the moment, Taiwan, Mexico and South Africa are taking the top 3 ranks in iETF ranking table.

You may notice that I have added 2 QR codes in the right side bar of this blog. These are for users who has QR code scanners in their mobile/smart phones or i-pod touch to quickly access this blog site (QR code 1) and momentum ranking tables (QR code 2) from their mobile devices. Use the code reader in your phone to scan the picture and it will automatically take you to the site. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!

Fund Rankings Update, 12/17/2010

2010-12-17T19:03:00.002-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell EZA, Buy IYM

Investors did not want to commit their money during this year end period, major stock market indexes closed this week without seeing much movement either on the upside or on the down side. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1243 up 0.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.72%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.21% for the week.

Continuing the theme in the past few weeks, the US domestic market out-performed the international markets due to the European debt concern and China's money tightening policy. In the ETF ranking table, the South Africa index (EZA) was pushed out of top 10 rank, and the US basic material index has hold the top rank for 4 weeks. The ETF model portfolio issued a trading signal to replace EZA with IYM.

In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the price is well above the trend line and the momentum is very strong, indicating that the up-trend will last for a while.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/10/2010

2010-12-11T07:24:00.004-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FPBFX, Buy FDSCX

Trading signal occurs in nSSPP model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy 42632 (FRONTIER SM CAP GR)

On the news that White house and minority congressional Republicans reached the tax cut deal, S&P 500 index closed this week at 1240 up 1.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.25%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index led the way and gained 1.78% for the week.

With the US economy getting back to a more robust track and US dollar getting stronger, the domestic markets outperformed global markets in the past few weeks. In the more diversified ranking tables with both global funds and US domestic funds, we have experienced sector rotations between domestic funds and global funds. In the SSPP model portfolio, the pacific basin fund (FPBFX) has been pushed out of the top 7 ranks and is replaced with the top ranked small cap fund (FDSCX). All the top 7 rank funds in SSPP ranking table are US domestic funds. Similar situation happened in the nSSPP model portfolio, the global oriented emergent market fund (FEMKX) fell out of the top 7 ranks and is replaced with the small cap fund (42632).

We are still holding FEMKX for our FEMKX timing model which use momentum indicator, STO[15,1], as trading signals. With FEMKX timing system, we will buy it when its STO[15,1] climbs above 50 and sell it when its STO[15,1] fell below 75. The STO[15,1] of FEMKX has come down below 80 in the recent weeks but still maintained above our sell threshold of 75 (pleaese see chart below for detail). The trading log of FEMKX timing model is listed in the SELECT_Log page.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/3/2010

2010-12-04T08:07:00.007-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Good economy news boosted stock markets during the week. The bad job data Friday dampen the investors mood a bit but stocks still end up higher. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1224 up 2.97%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.62%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index bucked and trend and gained 2.24% for the week.

Again we have come to the most difficult period for me in updating the ranking tablea. A lot of funds are distributing the profit/loss of the year to their investors and distorting the fund price. Fidelity has 39 funds making year end dividend distribution this weekend. For example, FEMKX made a 37 cent distribution to its fund holders and its fund price went down 32 cent from yahoo quote. If we add back the 37 cent, FEMKX should went up 5 cent on Friday. For these fund I have to find out the amount of their distributions as best as I can and manually make correction to my ranking calculations.

In the monthly chart of S&P 500 index, the price is well above the trend line and going higher. The momentum indicator STO[15,1] is at 88, indicating that the multi-year up trend is still intact.

Fund rankings update, 11/26/2010

2010-11-26T21:48:00.002-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell NIIAX, Buy CBSAX.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell INP, Buy EWH.

Another roller coaster week for stocks. Concern about European's debt level and North Korea's war threat rattled the market in the beginning of the week, but the better economy news boosted the major indexes on Wednesday. On Friday, the lingering worries about the European debt and North Korea prevailed and the market closed lower. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1189 down 0.86%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.0%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index bucked and trend and gained 0.65% for the week.

The recent pull-back has reduced the momentum of major indexes as well as individual funds quite a bit. For example, the slow STO[15,1] of S&P 500 index is at 83.5 and the STO [15,1] of FEMKX is at 75.28, very close to the sell threshold. We will monitor the market direction very closely in the next few weeks. The pull back also caused some sector/region rotations. We have issued 2 trading signals in HSA and iETF model portfolios this week due to AMI rank changes.

Fund rankings update, 11/19/2010

2010-11-19T20:05:00.003-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Concern about European's debt level and Chinese central bank's raising the bank reserve requirement rattled the market but the successful IPO of GM boost the investor's sentiment making this week eventful but end up flat. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1199 up 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.1%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 0.00% for the week.

In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, we can see that the price is well above its trend line and the STO momentum indicator has come down a bit but still maintains in the high 80's. We can expect that the uptrend will keep going for a while and of course the way up is never a straight line. We should expect some bumps along the way.

Fund rankings update, 11/12/2010

2010-11-12T20:30:00.002-05:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IXP, Buy IEZ

Investors took some profit and stocks closed the week lower. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1199 down 2.17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.2%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 2.36% for the week.

In the sector front, basic materials and energy sectors are among the sectors with higher momentum. In the sETF ranking table, the momentum of IXP faded this week and its ranks dropped off the top 7 ranks. A sell signal was issued and it is replaced by the top rank fund of this week, IEZ (Dow Jones Oil Equipment Index). Globally, Germany and Austria have come up strong in the recent weeks.

Fund rankings update, 11/5/2010

2010-11-05T20:02:00.003-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Encouraged by QE(qualitative easing) II from the FED and better than expected job report, stocks made big move this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1225 up 3.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.93%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 2.85% for the week.

I am in Hong Kong this week and just came back from a 2 day trip in Macau. Macau is the major gambling center in Asia. Most of the casinos in Vegas strip, like MGM, the Sand, the Venetian, ..etc, have built their casinos in Macau as well. At the luxurious brand stores in the casinos, I witnessed the purchasing power of Chinese tourists. Everyone has 3 or 4 shopping bags in their hands when they came out from the Cucci, LV, Hermes, ... stores. With China and the emerging markets gaining ground on US in economy, US government really needs to figure out how to maintain our competitive edge and remain the dominant economy force in the world.

Fund rankings update, 10/29/2010

2010-10-29T20:14:00.006-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in nSSPP model portfolio: Sell REIT index (42627), Buy FEMKX

Stocks paused for mid-term election results and actions from FED next week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1183 up 0.02%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.13%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 1.13% for the week.

Overall trend is unchanged this week. Technology and basic material are still the hot sectors in US, and in the global regions, India(INP) faded a bit while Austria(EWO) continue its high momentum surge. In nSSPP ranking table, our current holding (42627) was pushed out of the top 7 ranks and a sell signal was issued. We have held the fund for 147 days with a gain of 21%. The fund was replaced with emergent market fund, FEMKX.

For the FEMKX timing system, we still hold the fund as its momentum indicator STO[15,1] stands at 94 this week (see chart below). We have held the fund for 88 days with a gain of 11%. Trading history of FEMKX system can be found in the "Select_Log" page.

Fund rankings update, 10/22/2010

2010-10-22T23:29:00.002-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWM, Buy INP

Stocks slow down their march upward a bit this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1183 up 0.59%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.63%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.43% for the week.

Technology and basic material are still the hot sectors in US, and in the global regions, India(INP) and Austria(EWO) continue their high momentum surge from last week. The Malyasia fund (EWM) was pushed out of the top 7 ranks in the iETF ranking table so a sell signal was issued.

Fund rankings update, 10/15/2010

2010-10-15T22:58:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Technology sector lead the stock market higher this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1176 up 0.95%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.51%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 2.78% for the week.

With the economy recovery seemingly back on track, the basicmaterial and technology sectors are leading the way in US. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the price is well above the trend line and the momentum (STO[15,1]) is high at 95, indicating that the rally will last for a while. In the global arena, Austria and Hong Kong are coming strong while India still hold the top rank. Overall the international markets are outperforming US markets.

Fund rankings update, 10/8/2010

2010-10-08T20:34:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ICF, Buy IXP

Stocks resumed its rally this week hoping Fed will ease money policy again to excite the lackluster economy recovery and lower unemployment rate. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1165 up 1.65%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.63%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.31% for the week.

This rally has been very strong. The major indexes went up more than 10% in September and seem want to go higher. In the domestic industrial sectors, the telecom and material sectors are among the sectors with highest momentum. In fact, the real estate index (ICF) was pushed out of the top 7 rank this week and a sell signal was issued in the sETF model portfolio. The top 7 ranked funds in the sETF ranking table are filled mostly with telecom and material indexes.

International funds has outperformed US funds during this rally partly due to the weak dollar. India, Hong Kong and South Africa round up the top 3 funds with Austria coming strong in the iETF ranking table.

Fund rankings update, 10/1/2010

2010-10-02T09:39:00.007-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stock rally took a break this week, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 1146 down 0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.28%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 0.44% for the week. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the index stayed above the trend line and the STO[15,1] momentum remained strong.

By popular demands, I am posting the trading log of FEMKX model in the "SELECT_Log" page. I have updated the FEMKX model at the end of every month for a while, but some readers would like to follow it more closely so I decided to post it out weekly along with SELECT trading log. Note that this model uses technical indicator (stochastics) for trading signals not the momentum rankings. The trading rule is described in the trading log.

Fund rankings and FEMKX update, 9/24/2010

2010-09-24T22:58:00.011-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Buy FPBFX, Sell FNMIX.

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Buy FSCHX, Sell FSUTX.

After breaking above the trend line, stocks remained strong this week. The S&P 50

0 index closed this week at 1148 up 2.05%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.38%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 2.83% for the week. In the weekly chart, the S&P 500 index has decisively climbed above the trend line and has broken the trading range since May. Looks like this rally has staying power.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past and hopefully it is as reliable this time. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. FEMKX is at $24.35, 5.1% above our phase price of $23.17. Its STO[15,1] currently stands at 99 so no action is needed. In the weekly chart, FEMKX broke through the trend line in mid-July, succesfully test the support in late August. I expect the up-trend will keep going for a while.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00 08/02/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 08/02/10 $23.17

Fund rankings update, 9/17/2010

2010-09-17T22:23:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Buy NIIAX, Sell NAHAX.

Stocks continued the September rally. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1125 up 1.45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.39%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 3.26% for the week. The S&P 500 index finally breaks above the trend line this week although not by much. We shall see if this rally has staying power and turn itself into a up-trend in the following weeks.

Technology sectors especially software and telecommunication are gaining momentum in the past few weeks, which propel the NASDAQ composite index to the best performance among the major indexes this week. In the international front, southeast Asia (Malysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, ..) has been the strongest region in the world for the past few weeks.

Fund rankings update, 9/10/2010

2010-09-10T23:09:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading volume was low this week due to short trading week and quite a few traders have not come back from their vacations. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1109 up 0.46%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.14%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.39% for the week. The S&P 500 index stayed below the trend line for another week. In the past 4 months, the S&P 500 index has failed to break above the trend line twice. It will be interesting to see if the index can break the trend line in the coming weeks.

Fund rankings update, 9/3/2010

2010-09-03T22:45:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Boosted by better than expected economy news, stocks went up strongly this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1104 up 3.75%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.93%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 3.72% for the week. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the STO[15,1] momentum indicator climbed above 50 this week. However, the price is still below the trend line at 1120. We would like to see the price break above the trend line for confirmation of the intermediate up trend.

In the monthly chart of S&P 500 index, we can see the index whipsawing around the trend line for the past few months. The economy uncertainty has been reflected in the price action of the index. Unless the economy recovery picks up the steam again (which I hope it will), we may see the index stuck in the trading range for a while.

Fund rankings update, 8/27/2010

2010-08-28T07:39:00.006-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

With investors' worries about double dip recession, stocks continued their weakness this week. However, buyers stepped in Friday to close the week on a strong note. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1064 down 0.66%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.62%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 1.2% for the week.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past and hopefully it is as reliable this time. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. FEMKX is at $22.26, 3.9% below our phase price of $23.17. Its STO[15,1] currently stands at 75 so no action is needed.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00 08/02/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 08/02/10 $23.17

Fund rankings update, 8/20/2010

2010-08-20T22:42:00.003-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Bad economy news beat out strong company earning reports again this week. Investors still worried about the breakdown of the economy recovery. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1071 down 0.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.87%, while the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.29% for the week.

Technically, the S&P 500 index has been trading in a range and has a very strong resistance at the trend line level. As we can see in the chart below, the index has failed twice to break above the trend line in the past 2 months. It will take some heavy dose of good news to boost the index above its trend line.

Fund rankings update, 8/13/2010

2010-08-13T22:54:00.006-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

The Fed had spoken and confirmed that economy recovery has decelerated in the past 3 months. Although the Fed has indicated its willingness for a more accommodating money policy to prop up the economy, the investors' worry about the economy dipping back to recession still pulled the market downward. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1078 down 3.78%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 3.29%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 5.0% for the week.

From the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the index touched the trend line last week and went back down this week. The momentum (STO[15,1]) went up close to 50 but failed to climbed above the threshold this week. Both conditions need to be established for the trend to gain a stronger foothold. This year has turned out to be a difficult year for trend trading as no clear trend has emerged so far (notice the flat trend line since May!).

Fund rankings update, 8/6/2010

2010-08-06T22:41:00.007-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSLXX, Buy FSUTX

Stocks came out strong Monday due to better than expected company earning reports, but the worse than expected job report on Friday casted doubt to the economy recovery and dampened investors' enthusiasm. However, the strong momentum still carried the stocks to the up side. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1121 up 1.82%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.79%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.5% for the week.

The monthly chart of S&P 500 index shows that the index has climbed above the trend line again after staying below it for 3 months. From the monthly chart below, a similar situation happened during 1998 when the index briefly dipped below its trend line and resumed the up trend for another 24 months. Since the index move above its trend line again, we will change our position to buy side.

Fund rankings update, 7/30/2010

2010-07-30T21:03:00.009-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy EZA

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks struggled between strong company earnings and weak economy data the whole week, and ended the week with mix results. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1101 down 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 0.65% for the week. The resistance level of S&P 500 index at 1100 appears to be very hard to break. It will be interesting to see if S&P 500 index can break out on the up side decisively next week.

I have received information regarding changes in GM's 401k plan. Shares in the eight Fidelity mutual funds will be changed to a different class on August 25. These funds will have different ticker symbols but same investment strategies as the old ones. I have checked these funds out at yahoo.com and found that their price movements are the same as the old funds but the price may vary a bit. Here are the changes:

FCTNX-->FCNKX

FDIVX-->FDIKX

FEMKX-->FKEMX

FGRIX-->FGIKX

FDGRX-->FGCKX

FLPSX-->FLPKX

FMCSX-->FKMCX

FDVLX->FVLKX

Since the price movements of the new funds are the same as the old funds, I will still use the old funds in my rankings tables and use them as surrogates for the new ones.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past and hopefully it is as reliable this time. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. After holding cash for more than 2 months, FEMKX broke through its trend line last week and its STO[15,1] increases to 57 this week. Thus, a "buy" signal is issued.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00 08/02/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 08/02/10 $23.17

Fund rankings update, 7/23/2010

2010-07-23T21:35:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Strong company earnings boosted investors' confidence. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1102 up 3.55%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.24%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 4.15% for the week. It is encouraging to see the price climbed above the trend line again in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. However, we need to see the momentum indicator, STO[15,1], also climbs above 50 to declare the return of the up trend.

Fund rankings update, 7/16/2010

2010-07-16T21:15:00.007-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FRESX, Buy FNMIX

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CASH, Buy NAHAX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYR, Buy CASH

The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1064 down 1.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.98%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.79% for the week. Stocks have rallied for several days attracting investors to take positions, then they dropped sharply this Friday making investors feel like fools. From the weekly chart, the recent rally has caused the s&P 500 index to hit the trend line (resistance) at around 1100. However, it failed to break the trend line on the upside indicating that the down tend still prevails. The first sign of the reversal of a down trend is for the index to climb above its trend line.

Fund rankings update, 7/9/2010

2010-07-09T21:51:00.006-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stocks finally got a needed rebound. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1077 up 5.42%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 5.28%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 5.0% for the week. From the weekly chart of S&P500 index, the 13 week moving average has fallen below the 28 week average and the price is still below the 13 week moving averages even with the strong rebound this week. The weekly momentum of S&P 500 index stood at 19 well below the buy threshold of 50 indicating that the reversal of the current down trend is still weeks away.

Fund rankings update, 7/2/2010

2010-07-02T18:54:00.008-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSAIX, Buy FSLXX.

Stocks continued their weakness from last week and they got even weaker after S&P 500 index broke through the critical support level of 1040 on Wednesday. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1022 down 5.03%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 4.51%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 5.92% for the week. The question now is how long and how severe this "correction" will be, and whether this is going to turn into a bear market. S&P 500 index has lost 16% from its high of 1220 in April.

Last month, the S&P 500 index just fell below its tend line in the monthly chart signaling the end of the multi-year uptrend. At that time (blog dated 6/4), I said I would be cautious and move to the side line waiting for the development. That turns out to be the right call. From the monthly chart, the index is visibly below the trend line now and the momentum is heading south fast. Looking back from the chart, the last time when the index broke through its trend line, the down turn lasted about 18 months, and the one before that, the down turn lasted about 30 months. Although past history is no indication of future development, it is obvious that at this moment the downside risk greatly outweighs the up side, and reducing risk becomes number one priority. By moving to cash position, we will have the freedom and control when the uptrend returns.

Fund rankings and FEMKX update, 6/25/2010

2010-06-25T21:39:00.007-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stocks failed to maintain their upward momentum. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1076 down 3.65%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.94%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 3.74% for the week. The S&P 500 index closed down below its 28 week moving average and seems to march downward to test the critical 1040-1050 level.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. We sold FEMKX on May 10 at $22.37 and moved to cash position. The STO[15,1] of FEMKX stands at 40.2 this week below the buying threshold of 50.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00

Fund rankings update, 6/18/2010

2010-06-18T19:24:00.008-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stocks continued their rebound for the second week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1117 up 2.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.35%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 2.95% for the week. The S&P 500 index closed 5 points above it 28 week moving average. We need to wait for its slow STO[15,1] to break above 50 for confirmation of the up-trend(see chart below).

Fund rankings update, 6/11/2010

2010-06-11T21:02:00.002-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in ETF mdoel portfolio: Sell IJS, Buy IYR.

Trading signal occurs in sETF mdoel portfolio: Sell IAT, Buy ICF.

After three losing weeks, stock finally turned positive. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1091 up 2.51%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.81%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.1% for the week. However, all the indexes are below their 28 week moving averages. The support line now becomes the resistance. It may take some time for the major indexes to break the resistance to resume the up trend.

The current stock sell-off have pulled down the momentum of most of the sectors into negative territory. Only a few sectors, like real estate, transportation and leisure still maintain positive momentum. It is interesting to see that four out of our seven model portfolios are holding real estate sector funds right now. Our ETF and sETF model portfolios move to IYR and ICF this week, the nSSPP model portfolio moved to REIT index fund last week, while our SSPP model portfolio has held FRESX for more than five months since January. For the ranking strategy during the sell-off, the holding will keep switching to the strongest sector which resist the downward pressure the most. If the down trend is short-live, this holding is usually among the strongest sectors to rebound. However, if the down trend persists, the momentum of the last hold out will turn negative, and we will move CASH position since there won't be any funds with positive momentum.

Fund rankings update, 6/4/2010

2010-06-05T11:39:00.015-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in HSA mdoel portfolio: Sell CBSAX, Buy Cash.

Trading signal occurs in nSSPP mdoel portfolio: Sell ARGFX, Buy REIT Index.

President Obama is frustrated over the Gulf Oil Spill while investors are frustrated over the pace of economy recovery. The anemic job creation by the private sector in the May job report on Friday pulled down the major market indexes by more than three percents in a day. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1064 down 2.25%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.02%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 1.68% for the week.

The monthly chart of S&P 500 index shows that the uptrend support has been broken and the momentum is heading downward. The S&P 500 index broke through its long term resistance in July 2009 establishing the current multi-year uptrend. However, the uptrend seems to be disrupted by the recent market sell-off. We do not know whether this signals the start of a down trend or it is just merely a deep correction. Under these conditions, I will be cautious and move to the sideline. According to our trend following principle, we will wait before the index climbs above its trend line again.

Fund Rankings and FEMKX Updates, 5/28/2010

2010-05-28T18:39:00.007-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

We are so glad that May is over. Stocks suffered the worst monthly lost since February, 2009 and the worst May performance since 1940. We can only hope that investors have a better mood when they come back from long weekend and start June with optimism. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1089 up 0.16%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.56%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.26% for the week.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. We sold FEMKX on May 10 at $22.37 and move to cash position when its slow STO[15,1] fell below 75. For this trade, we held it for 56 days with a loss of 1.11%.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00

Fund Rankings Update, 5/21/2010

2010-05-21T20:56:00.003-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWW, Buy EWM.

There is an old stock adage, Sell in May and walk away. This May so far has been brutal. All major indexes fell below their 28 week support lines this week signaling an intermediate down trend. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1087 down 4.23%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 4.02%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 5.02% for the week.

Europe is in a shamble and China is in a slow down. This time, US is in a recovery mode and has to lead the world out of this economy crisis. Although the stock markets have been under severe selling pressure, our holdings in SSPP and SELECT model portfolios still maintain the positive momenta. Hopefully they can survive this down turn and come out profitable.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/14/2010

2010-05-14T21:10:00.003-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stocks recovered some after the big loss last week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1135 up 2.23%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.31%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 3.58% for the week.

In the weekly chart of &P 500 index, the price is below the 13 week moving average but still above the 28-week support line. Its slow STO[15,1] has fell below 75 and is heading downward indicating that the market down side risk out weights the upside potential for the next couple of weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/7/2010

2010-05-07T21:07:00.010-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading Signal occurred in FEMKX trading system: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH.

US Stocks suffered the worst week since March, 2009 as investors worried that the Greece' debt crisis may spread to other Euro zone countries. Stocks started their slide on Tuesday, at one point Thursday afternoon, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 998 point in 15 minutes interval before recovery and at the end of the day closed down 350 point. Panic set in and sell off continued on Friday. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1110, down 6.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 5.7%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 8.0% for the week. The S&P 500 index has fallen 9% from its high of 1219. The official definition of a correction is 10%-15% below its high so we are not quite there yet.

Although the sell-off was intense, the monthly chart of S&P 500 index still shows that the index is above the support level and its long term momentum, indicated by the STO[15,1], is still above 80 (see chart 1below). The multi-year uptrend is still intact before the tend line is broken and the momentum fell below 70,

The FEMKX, however, was more sensitive to the sell-off. Its weekly momentum indicator, slow STO[15,1], fell from 83 to 60.16 in one week, below our sell threshold of 75, ans the 28 week support line was broken. A sell signal is issued and we will move to cash position. We have held FEMKX for 53 days with a loss of 7.3% for this trade.

Chart 1: Monthly Chart of S$P 500 index

Chart 2: Weekly Chart of FEMKX

Fund rankings and FEMKX updates, 4/30/2010

2010-05-01T09:20:00.005-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITA, Buy IAT due to rank change.

Stocks suffered heavy loss due to Greece' debt crisis and the first quarter US GDP number failed to excite the investors. This is the third week the major indexes struggled around the resistance levels. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1186 down 2.51%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.75%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 2.73% for the week.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold it for at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. We bought FEMKX on March 15 at $22.62 when its slow STO[15,1] climbed above 50. FEMKX closed this week at $23.26 with a gain of 2.8% after holding it for 46 days. Its STO stood at 83 as of Friday, 4/30.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62

Tokyo, 4/7/2010 - 4/10/2010, Part II

2010-04-28T20:22:00.002-04:00

Itinerary:

Day 2 (4/9) - Meiji Shrine(明治神宮), Harajuku (原宿), Omotesando(表參道), Roppongi Hills(六本木), Ginza(銀座)

The Torii gate at Meiji Shrine is the largest in Japan, It is built from 1700 year-old cypress trees from Taiwan.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

There are wine kegs displayed at the outer entrance to the Shrine. Wine barrels on the left,

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Sake (Japanese rice wine) kegs on the right,

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

The Shrine is dedicated to Emperor Meiji and Empress Shoken. It is a popular place for traditional Japanese wedding ceremony.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

A yellow Corvette on the street in Harajuku.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Crepes look delicious. Each piece is about 450yen (~$5).

Ometesando Hills, a collection of high end stores.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

We have Donkatsu (Pork cutlet) lunch at Meisen. We came across Meisen by accident during our last trip to Tokyo in 2007. It was so good that later I found out its Donkatsu was ranked number 2 in Tokyo.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Tree lined walkway near Meiji Shrine outer garden, a popular place for scenes from Japanese TV episodes.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Spider sculpture at Roppongi Hills, outside the Roppongi metro station.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

You can see the Tokyo Tower from Roppongi Hills.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Wako department store is the one of the most exclusive stores in Ginza, and the building is the landmark of Ginza. The building was built in 1930 and survived the World Wall II.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

We had Yakiniku grill buffet for dinner. You order the drinks and food by press the electronic pen on the button next to your selections on the menu. The waiter will deliver them to your table. They do not speak much English and there is no English menu. I am glad I had a few Japanese language lessens before. The drink menu:

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

and the grill:

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Hope you enjoy the pictures as much as we had fun in our trip.

Tokyo, 4/7/2010 - 4/10/2010, Part I

2010-04-24T10:35:00.025-04:00

On the way back from Taipei during spring break, we stopped by Tokyo, Japan for 3 days. Because of flight schedule, we actually had only 2 whole days (4/8, and 4/9) for our adventure. In order to fully spent our time, I have done quite a bit of planning and adjusted the plan a couple of times based on suggestions from other blogs and my parents. Many thanks to my sister who made the reservation of a hotel in Shinjuku(新宿) for us from Taiwan. We are very pleased with the location and comfort of the hotel. Late March and early April is Tokyo's cherry blossom season. Depends on the weather, the cherry blossom can come and go within 2 weeks. We were very lucky to have two sunny and cool days to be able to enjoy cherry blossom viewing (Hanami). Here is our schedule for the two days:

Day 1 (4/8) - Asakusa Shrine(浅草觀音寺), Nakamise Shopping Street (仲見世商店街), Ueno Park(上野公園), Akihabara(秋葉原), Imperior Palace(皇居), Kabukijo,Shinjuku(歌舞伎町,新宿).

Day 2 (4/9) - Meiji Shrine(明治神宮), Harajuku (原宿), Omotesando(表參道), Roppongi Hills(六本木), Ginza(銀座).

and the Prictures:

First Meal, Soba (buckwheat noodle), at a Restaurant on 14th floor of Takashimaya Department store

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Famous Entrance at Asakusa Shrine. As a tourist, you just have to have your pictures taken under the giant lantern.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Nakamise Shopping Street leading to Asakusa Shrine. Spent all the money before the worship and pray for more?

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Inside Asakusa Shrine.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Famous Shrimp Tempura at Okuroya Restaruant near Asakusa Shrine. You have to be there before 11:30 am to avoid the lunch crowd.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Cherry Blossom Way at Ueno Park. Another crowd.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Shrine in Ueno Park

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Amay market street outside Ueno Park. You can find souvenir a lot cheaper here.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

More pics to come...

Fund Rankings Updates, 4/23/2010

2010-04-23T21:34:00.005-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

US Stocks turned in a strong performance this week. S&P 500 index, DJIA and Nasdaq composite index all closed above their resistance levels. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1217 up 2.11%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.68% , and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.97% for the week.

In the SELECT ranking table, the transportation sector is still leading the way, while the housing and banking sectors are gaining momentum. In the iETF ranking table, the Mexico is holding the top ranks while Sweden is making the move. Continuing the trend from last week, US stocks outperformed those of the international regions.

Fund Rankings Updates, 4/16/2010

2010-04-16T21:48:00.004-04:00

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy IJS

Resistance is hard to break. S&P 500 index, DJIA and Nasdaq composite index all broke their resistance levels during the week but quickly retreated. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1192 down 0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the only index above it resistance of 11000 increased 0.19% , and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.11% for the week.

In the SELECT ranking table, the transportation sector is still leading the way, while in the iETF ranking table, the Mexico and Korea are holding the top ranks. Again, the domestic sectors have higher price momentum than the international regions indicating that the US stock markets have outperformed the international markets in this rally.