Fund Rankings Update, 1/10/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed broadly lower as choppy trading continued since the beginning of the year.  A robust jobs report on Friday triggered a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging by 700 points.  Investors grew concerned that the Federal Reserve might halt interest rate cuts due to the strong economic data. Uncertainty surrounding the incoming administration's proposed tariffs also dampened investor sentiment.   For the week, the S&P 500 declined 1.94%, closing at 5827, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.96%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.34%. 

The S&P 500 Index has been on a five-week decline after reaching a peak of 6100 on December 6th as shown in the weekly chart below. Despite remaining above its 28-week exponential moving average, weakening momentum signals a potential drop below the 5740 support level. The ability of the index to swiftly rebound from this support level will be crucial for the continuation of the rally.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/3/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Happy New Year!! Stocks closed modestly lower for the holiday-shortened week.  The slump at the beginning of the week was attributed to the year-end profit taking from traders to close 2024.  Indeed, 2024 is the second consecutive year the S&P 500 index recorded more than 20% growth.  For the week, the S&P 500 went down 0.48%, closing at 5942, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.51%. 

The S&P 500 Index exhibited lower volatility for the second consecutive week, dipping to 5800 during the week but recovering to close modestly higher above its opening level.  The index remains above its 28-week exponential moving average although its momentum is showing signs of weakening. This consolidation phase is anticipated to persist for another couple of weeks."

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/27/2024

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks advanced moderately higher during this holiday-shortened week.   Major indices continued their rally into Monday and Tuesday but reversed the trend on Thursday and Friday after Christmas.  For the week, the S&P 500 went up 0.67%, closing at 5970, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.35%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index increased 0.76%. 

The S&P 500 Index displayed reduced volatility this week, with price action confined within the previous week's trading range.  The 6100 level has acted as a short-term resistance from the weekly chart below.  A decisive break above 6100 will provide confirmation of the ongoing bullish trend.  The index continues to trade above its 28-week exponential moving average and remains within its established rising channel. With two trading days left for the year, it is interesting to see where it closes for the year.   

 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/20/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EZA, Buy EWS

Stocks declined broadly for the week with Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing 10 days of consecutive loss, the longest losing streak since the 1970s.   All eyes were on the interest rate policy from Wednesday's Fed policy meeting.  The Fed did lower the interest rate by 0.25% as expected on Wednesday but projected to cut fewer times in 2025 according to the projection by its members.  Investors sentiment turned vastly negative as the Fed turned hawkish toward the path of future interest rates.  For the week, the S&P 500 went down 1.99%, closing at 5930, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.25%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index fell 1.78%. 

With the decline this week, the S&P 500 index is still trading within its upward trading channel, currently sitting  4.1% above its 28-week exponential moving average.  Support levels are observed at 5650-5700 (short-term, aligned with the trendline) and 5200 (longer-term, relevant if the trend shifts bearish).  As the index continues to hold above its upward trendline, our bullish outlook for the market remains unchanged. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/13/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIUIX, Buy FDEGX

Stocks closed the week mixed with the technology-laden NASDAQ composite indexes breaking the 20000 barrier for the first time.  Investors were largely waiting for the Fed's interest decision next week. The CPI and PPI data released Wednesday and Thursday mostly met expectations with a slight uptick in monthly PPI.   On Thursday, the Labor Department reported a surprise jump in weekly initial jobless claims of 242,000 suggesting a softening labor market.   With slowing inflation and a cooling labor market, expectations for a rate cut by the Fed next week have increased.  For the week, the S&P 500 went down 0.64%, closing at 6051, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.82%, while the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index rose 0.34%. 

The S&P 500 index continued its upward march along the upper boundary of its trading channel. Given the index's position above its 28-week exponential moving average and its strong momentum, our bullish outlook remains unchanged.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/6/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSTCX, Buy FSLBX

Stocks closed the week mixed with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ composite indexes reaching record highs while the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered a loss.  Growth stocks outperformed value stocks and Large caps outperformed small caps.  Several key labor market indicators were released during the week. On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that U.S. job openings increased in October by 7.74 million, up from September's 7.37 million. On Wednesday,  ADP reported that US private companies added 148000 jobs and a 4.8% annual pay increase.  Finally, on Friday, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. added 227,000 jobs in November, slightly higher than the expectation but a sharp increase from October. Wall Street viewed these data as a positive factor for the Fed to cut interest rates by another 0.25% in the next Fed policy meeting on December 17. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 0.96%, closing at 6090, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, while the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index jumped 3.34%. 

The technical picture and outlook for The S&P 500 index stay the same as last week.    With the index's high momentum, it is expected to continue its ascent along the upper boundary of its trading channel.

Note: Numerous funds are scheduled to distribute year-end capital gains and dividends over the next few weeks.  As this information isn't automatically accessible, I will need to manually adjust momentum indicator calculations. Consequently, momentum rankings may be less accurate than usual during this time, a pattern observed in past years." 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 11/29/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy IGV

Stocks closed higher for the second week with the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching record highs.  Market sentiment was mostly influenced by the incoming President Trump's appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary and his plan to impose 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico along with an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. The economic data released during the week generally met expectations with personal income and personal spending exceeding expectations while durable goods fell short. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 1.06%, closing at 6032, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.39%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index increased 1.23%. 

The S&P 500 index continued its ascent along the upper boundary of its trading channel as shown in the weekly chart below.  Given the index's high momentum, we maintain our positive outlook for the remainder of the year.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index