Fund Rankings Update, 5/1/2026

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed higher this week, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite achieving fresh all-time highs as corporate earnings growth remains the dominant driver of market momentum.  Economic data released this week painted a picture of the "soft landing" scenario. On Thursday, the Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 189,000, a significant decrease from the previous week, and on Friday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory at 52.7% for April.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.91% to close at 7230, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite went up 1.12%.

The S&P 500 index successfully extended its upward trajectory this week, holding above the 7,200 level and confirming the strength of its recent breakout. The index remains in a strong primary bullish trend, trading 6.6% above its 28-week EMA.  The immediate technical hurdle is the 7,350 zone. A sustained move above this level could target the 7,500 psychological milestone before the summer season.  The support level from below has shifted up to the 7,200 mark. If the index experiences a short-term pullback, the previous high of currently 7000 remains the critical line in the sand for the medium-term bullish thesis.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/24/2026

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FICDX, Buy FOCPX

Stocks in general closed higher this week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite index finishing at another all-time high.  Investors' sentiment was buoyed by a "risk-on" appetite fueled by a cooling geopolitical environment and explosive earnings momentum in the semiconductor space. The formal implementation of a two-week ceasefire and the continued reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have significantly reduced the "war premium" on global trade, allowing a sharp rotation back into high-growth tech and AI infrastructure.  Economic data released this week showed that the U.S. economy may have been stronger than previously expected as U.S. retail sales jumped 1.7% in March, the strongest monthly increase since 2023, and the readings for February and January were also revised higher.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.55% to close at 7165, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite went up 1.5%.

The S&P 500 index successfully consolidated its breakout above the 7,000 level this week, utilizing the previous resistance as a new primary support floor. The index remains in a strong primary bullish trend, trading well above its 28-week EMA.  However, the rapid 12% ascent from the March lows has pushed the index 6% above its trendline in a short period of time, indicating that the market is entering overbought territory and may require a period of sideways consolidation to work off the excess momentum. The immediate upside target is still the 7,200 extension level, and the primary support is now firmly established at 7,000.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/17/2026

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed significantly higher this week, with the S&P 500 achieving a historic milestone by closing above the 7,000 mark for the first time. The rally was fueled by better-than-expected Q1 earnings from major financial institutions and semiconductors, alongside growing optimism that the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East may be approaching a diplomatic de-escalation. While the U.S. implemented a strategic naval blockade on Monday, the market focused on the resilience of corporate profits. On Thursday, TSMC (TSM) reported a stellar 35.1% year-over-year revenue increase, indicating the robustness in AI hardware demands.  Economic data released this week supported the "soft landing" narrative despite some inflationary friction. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March rose 0.5%, indicating some "stickiness" in wholesale prices. However, investors looked past this headline, encouraged by Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, which remained steady at 207,000, down from the prior week’s revised reading of 218,000, confirming that the labor market has not yet been significantly dampened by the recent energy shock.  For the week, the S&P 500 jumped 4.54% to close at 7126, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite shot up 6.84%.

The S&P 500 index completed a decisive breakout this week, clearing the 7,000 psychological and technical resistance on high relative volume. This move effectively confirms the "V-shaped" recovery from the March lows and puts the index back into a primary bullish trend. The index is now trading well above its 28-week EMA.  The next price target is 7200, while the immediate support down below is the 7000 level, which flipped from resistance to support.  A successful "back-test" of this level would provide a high-conviction entry point for those who missed the initial leg of this rally. The secondary support sits at the 28-week EMA of 6712.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/10/2026

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks closed sharply higher for the second week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed the first tangible signs of de-escalation. While early-week trading remained choppy, reports of a two-week ceasefire framework and continued negotiations sparked a massive relief rally later in the week. Economic data released this week also provided a much-needed "goldilocks" signal; on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that March inflation came in largely in line with expectations. While consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in nearly four years—driven primarily by the lagged effects of the energy surge—the core readings suggested that underlying inflation remains on a cooling trajectory.  The labor market also showed signs of stabilization after the volatility seen in February. While Federal Reserve officials maintained a "wait-and-see" approach regarding interest rate cuts, the market interpreted the cooling core inflation data as a sign that the Fed’s "soft landing" remains achievable despite recent shocks. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 3.54% to close at 6,816, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.04%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 4.68%.

The S&P 500 index underwent a dramatic technical reversal in the last two weeks, erasing the bearish breakdown seen in mid-March. By closing at 6,816, the index decisively reclaimed its 28-week EMA (6682).  This "V-shaped" recovery suggests that the late-March lows in the 6,300s may have marked a meaningful bottom, though the index remains in a broader consolidation pattern. To signal the resumption of the upward trajectory, the index has to close above the 7000 psychological resistance, while the 28-week EMA has now turned from resistance to support. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/3/2026

Fund rankings are not available this week due to my travel. 

Fund Rankings Update, 3/27/2026

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 05084, Buy 42635

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSELX, Buy FSENX

Stocks closed sharply lower this week, marking the fifth consecutive losing streak for the major averages—the worst such stretch since the onset of the current geopolitical conflict. Anxiety regarding the disruption of global energy supplies intensified as crude oil prices continued their ascent with no clear resolution in sight for the war in the Middle East. Economic data and central bank signaling provided little relief to investors; following last week’s FOMC decision to hold rates steady, a growing consensus emerged this week that the Federal Reserve may only deliver a single interest rate cut in 2026. This "higher-for-longer" outlook, coupled with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirming Q4 2025 GDP growth of just 1.4%, has reignited fears of a stagflation environment. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.12% to close at 6,368, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.23%.

The S&P 500 index underwent a significant technical breakdown this week, trading 5% below its 28-week Exponential Moving Average. By closing at 6,368.85, the index has moved into a "bearish phase," characterized by a persistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The index is now trading well below all its major short- and medium-term EMAs, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the downside. The index is currently testing the 6,365 support zone, which represents the lows seen last September. If this level fails to hold on high volume, the next significant support floor sits near the 6,100 level, the lows from last summer.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 3/20/2026

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed lower for the fourth consecutive week due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and resulting high oil prices.  The Federal Reserve held the interest rate unchanged after concluding its policy meeting on Wednesday while expressing its concern about the energy shock that will cause trouble for inflation expectations.  In addition, the producer price index (PPI) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) rose 0.7% in February, up from 0.5% in January indicating the sticky inflation situation.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.90% to close at 6,506, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 2.07%.

The S&P 500 index accelerated its downward slide this week after closing below its 28-week EMA last week, and its weekly momentum indicator sits firmly in the oversold region. By closing at 6,506, the index is now trading well below the critical 200-day EMA, which currently stands at 6594.  The negative bias remains firmly in place as the index continues to display lower highs and lower lows behavior on the weekly chart. To stabilize the current decline, the index must first hold the 6,500 psychological support level and reclaim the 6,600 200-day EMA level.  If the index fails to hold the 6500 level, it may accelerate its downward spiral toward the 6100 level, which represents the previous high reached in February last year. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index