YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 5/17/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks advanced for the fourth week with the major indices, Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq, all reaching record highs. The major factor boosting investors' sentiment was the April CPI index released on Wednesday. The CPI index came in lower than expected contrary to the higher-than-expectation PPI index released a day before. The core CPI in April rose 0.3% in line with the expectation while headline CPI rose the same 03% a tick below the expectation. The moderation of the inflation pressure lowered the treasury yields and propped up the major stock prices to all-time highs. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 1.54% to 5303, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, breaking the 40000 psychological barrier, increased 1,24% and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 2.11%.

As discussed, the S&P 500 index broke the previous high of 5262 without hesitation which signaled the continuation of the bull trend. The index is now in uncharted territory, with each new high being an all-time record making it difficult to predict where the top will be. Using Fibonacci analysis, the potential resistance levels were identified at 5340, 5500, and 5650. Only time will tell how high the index will climb.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/10/2024

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell VFTAX, Buy CSMUX

Stocks advanced for the third week with light trading volume as Wednesday's market saw the third lightest trading volume day of the year. Economic calendars were not as busy either with only initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index released on Thursday and Friday respectively. Higher initial jobless claims and lower consumer sentiment all pointed to a slow economy and softer labor markets. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 1.85% to 5222, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.16% and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 1.14%.

With the strong advance, the S&P 500 index is closing in on its all-time high of 5265. Next week is critical in determining the index's direction: A decisive move above the 5265 and holding there would signal the continuation of the up-trend while a rejection at 5265 could create a double-top bearish formation on the weekly chart.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/3/2024

Stocks nudged upward for the second week under a slew of economy data and company earning reports. The positive reception to Apple's earning report on Thursday and the less-than-expected nonfarm payroll data on Friday morning boosted investor sentiments. The slowdown in the labor market and the monthly wage increase lessened the investors' worries about the inflation pressure. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 0.55% to 5127, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.14% and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 1.43%.

The S&P 500 index started the week on the weak side falling below its 50-day exponential moving average but crawled back above the EMA and ended up a bit higher than its opening price to close the week. The price action formed a hammer candle pattern on the weekly chart which is deemed to be bullish. However, The momentum indicator STO[15,1] of the index sits at 67.43, nestled between the overbought and oversold thresholds suggesting a sideway consolidation may be in store for the next few weeks. May is traditionally a weak month for stock markets as the adage, "Sell in May and go away" goes. It remains to be seen if this adage holds true for the S&P 500 this year.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/26/2024

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio, Sell ITB, Buy IEO

Stocks recovered some of the loss ground after three weeks of selloff as investors responded to the positive company earning reports and the buying opportunities created by the recent slump in tech shares. Economy data released later in the week also boosted investors' sentiments. On Thursday, The Commerce Department reported that the US economy grew at an annual pace of 1.6% well below the estimated 2.5%, and on Friday it released the core personal consumption expenditures (core PCE) index of 2.82% month over month in March showing inflation continued its downward trajectory since October last year. For the week, the S&P 500 jumped 2.67% to 5099, the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged up 0.67% and the Nasdaq composite index rebounded 4.23%.

The S&P 500 index rebounded sharply this week, climbing back above the key psychological level of 5,000. However, momentum indicators are now falling below the overbought threshold of 80, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation period. We're closely watching the 4800 level, which remains critical support based on our previous analysis. The index's behavior around this level will be a key indicator of its near-term direction.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/19/2024

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system, Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks pulled back for the third week as tension in the Middle East and concerns of a higher and longer interest environment continued to weigh in on investors' sentiments. On Monday, The Commerce Department reported that retail sales in March went up 0.7% much higher than the expected 0.3%, which increased investors' worries about the Fed putting off the interest rate cut further out of the year. And nn Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated at an economic conference that it will take longer than expected to achieve that confidence to tame the inflation. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 3.05% to 4967, the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged up 0.01% and the Nasdaq composite index plunged 5.52%.

The S&P 500 index has declined for three weeks in a row, with a sharp pullback this week that brought it under the key psychological level of 5,000. The gap between the index and its 28-week exponential moving average has narrowed significantly, going from 9.6% three weeks ago to a modest 2.0%. 4800 will be a critical support level below for the index as it is near trendline support, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and the previous high in January 2022. The behavior of the index at this level will tell us if this is a buying opportunity or the start of a longer downturn.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/12/2024

Stocks pulled back another week as geopolitical tension rose in the Middle East and signs of persistent inflation pressure weighed in on investors' sentiments. The consumer price index rose 0.36% in March and the overall index rose 3.5% on an annual basis while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.4% in March and 3.8% year-over-year according to the data released on Wednesday by the Labor Department. Both CPI and core CPI are all higher than economists' expectations and essentially destroyed investors' hope for a rate cut in June. Investor sentiments suffered another blow Friday as talk about Iran's preparation for attacking Israel drove oil prices and US dollars significantly higher. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.56% to 5123, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 2.37% and the Nasdaq composite index went down 0.46%.

The S&P 500 continued its decline for another week with the gap between the index and its 28-week exponential moving average narrowing from 9.5% to a more usual 5.4%. It is interesting to see whether the index stays in a sideway consolidation or goes for a sharp pullback toward its 28-week EMA. As discussed last week, this may create an opportunity for rebalancing the portfolio holdings.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/5/2024

Stocks pulled back this week as treasury yields rose in response to positive economic data. The March ISM manufacturing index released Monday came in higher than expected and the job report released Friday indicated that the US added 303000 jobs well above the expected 200,000. These positive economic data have encouraged the Fed to take a wait-and-see attitude toward rate cuts and diminishing the likelihood of a rate cut in June. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.95% to 5024, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 2.27% and the Nasdaq composite index went down 0.8%.

The S&P 500 index continued its sideway consolidation this week. The deviation from its 28-week EMA has been reduced to 7.5%. As discussed last week, the side-way consolidation is healthier and preferable than a sharp pull-back toward the trend line. Investors can reenter or take more risk when the trend line catches up with the index.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index