Happy New Year!
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Year-end review, 12/28/2008
In my mid-year review, I pointed out at that time that it felt like we were in a recession. Finally, it was official that we were in a recession. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, we have been in a recession since December 2007! The effect of the credit crunch has finally spread to the whole economy. In September, one financial institute after another went into trouble and by October, the U.S. financial system had almost collapsed. Reluctantly, in an effort to rescue the nation’s banking system, the treasury department set into motion the 700 billion dollar bailout plan, but the damage had already been done. In December, the auto industry was in danger of bankruptcy due to the freeze of credit, which forced the Bush administration to provide 17.4 billion dollar loans to prevent the disorderly liquidation of the industry and save the nation from depression. The U.S. government has pulled all the strings and the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to 0 – 0.25%, a historic low, to ease the lending and stimulate the economy. With the new administration and new congress coming into office in January next year, economy policies for the past 8 years are coming to an end. Hopefully, the change will bring back confidence, help economy restructure itself, and resume its expansion for the long haul.
The U.S. stock market tried to rally in March but failed to uphold the gain. The S&P 500 index headed south in May and has not since climbed above its trend line (EMA[28]). The weak rally signaled trouble was on the horizon. Sensing the economy was in great danger, the market started the sell-off in September. As the financial system was in jeopardy in October, the sell-off intensified. Within 3 months, the stock market experienced the biggest drop in decades. The S&P 500 index lost 9.5% in September, 17% in October, and 7.4% in November. From the beginning of this year, the S&P 500 has lost 40.5%, and the NASDAQ composite index has lost 42.4%.
This year, losing less means winning. For our model portfolios, SSPP, nSSPP, and iETF have been in cash positions since July and had escaped the October market sell-off. However, SELECT, ETF, and sETF did not fare as well. They tried to hang on to the stronger market sectors and hope for a rebound when the economy was heading south. Finally, they yielded to the vicious sell-off in October, which dragged down every sector in the economy, and moved to the sidelines with big losses. The FEMKX timing model, based on the stochastics, turned in the best performance this year. It went to a cash position in June and only lost 2.9% this year.
In this vicious bear market, it is important to execute the trading plan in a diligent manner. From our record, if you bought and held the NASDAQ composite index for the past 4.5 years, you will end up with a loss a little more than 20%. On the other hand, if you closely followed one of our original model portfolios (SSPP, SELECT, and ETF), you will still come out with a profit!
For now, we can only wait patiently, with cash at hands, for the trend reversal. It may be soon or it may take a while, but we will know when the time comes.
Fund Rankings Update, 12/26/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
As the year is coming to an end, there is not much activity on the trading floor. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.74%, S&P 500 index went down 1.7%, and NASDAQ lost 2.18%. Volumes are light because most of the traders are on holiday break. Stock market has fluctuated around the same level for the past 2 weeks. Stochastics of S&P 500 index, which we are closely monitoring for trend reversal, stands at 25.8 this week, about the same as 2 weeks ago.
As the year is coming to an end, there is not much activity on the trading floor. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.74%, S&P 500 index went down 1.7%, and NASDAQ lost 2.18%. Volumes are light because most of the traders are on holiday break. Stock market has fluctuated around the same level for the past 2 weeks. Stochastics of S&P 500 index, which we are closely monitoring for trend reversal, stands at 25.8 this week, about the same as 2 weeks ago.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 12/23/2008
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking Updates and FEMKX update, 12/19/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
The market was encouraged by the Federal Reserve's lowering of the interest rate to 0 - 0.25 %, a historic low, and Bush's announcement of the 17.4 billion auto rescue plan. S&P 500 index went up 0.93%, NASDAQ composite went up 1.53% for the week. Government's stimulus actions will take sometime to work their way through economy. Hopefully it will be sooner than later.
Here is an update for our FEMKX timing model using stochastics. We have moved to sideline since 6/13/2008. FEMKX closed this week at $13.01 with weekly STO[15,1] standing at 15.14 way below the buy signal of 50.
FEMX Trading Log
The market was encouraged by the Federal Reserve's lowering of the interest rate to 0 - 0.25 %, a historic low, and Bush's announcement of the 17.4 billion auto rescue plan. S&P 500 index went up 0.93%, NASDAQ composite went up 1.53% for the week. Government's stimulus actions will take sometime to work their way through economy. Hopefully it will be sooner than later.
Here is an update for our FEMKX timing model using stochastics. We have moved to sideline since 6/13/2008. FEMKX closed this week at $13.01 with weekly STO[15,1] standing at 15.14 way below the buy signal of 50.
FEMX Trading Log
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00
iETF and sETF rankings update, 12/16/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, 12/12/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
After auto rescue bill died on senate floor late Thursday night, Wall street shook off the bad news and stocks climbed higher Friday. As we discussed last Friday, this is a bullish sign for stock market, since bad news is not driving down the market anymore. With this kind of sentiment, market is most likely building a short term bottom at this level.
Chart below shows the weekly price movement of S&P 500 index. In May-June this year, the index fell below its 28 week moving average, its STO dipped below 75 and has remained below 50 since then. In July, the index try to rally but fail. Its STO climbed above 20 but ccould not get over 50 and the index failed to take itself above the 28 week moving average. Due to the market action in the past two weeks, the STO has climbed above 20 again. We will pay close attention to see if the index can keep its momentum this time and climb above 50 to uphold the up trend.
After auto rescue bill died on senate floor late Thursday night, Wall street shook off the bad news and stocks climbed higher Friday. As we discussed last Friday, this is a bullish sign for stock market, since bad news is not driving down the market anymore. With this kind of sentiment, market is most likely building a short term bottom at this level.
Chart below shows the weekly price movement of S&P 500 index. In May-June this year, the index fell below its 28 week moving average, its STO dipped below 75 and has remained below 50 since then. In July, the index try to rally but fail. Its STO climbed above 20 but ccould not get over 50 and the index failed to take itself above the 28 week moving average. Due to the market action in the past two weeks, the STO has climbed above 20 again. We will pay close attention to see if the index can keep its momentum this time and climb above 50 to uphold the up trend.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 12/09/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, 12/05/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Wall street put on a brave face over government's dismal employment report. Stock market initially reacted badly to the report but turned around to the upside in the afternoon. The S&P 500 index gained more than 3% for the day. This usually is a good sign for the market since investors are expecting worsen economy condition and won't be surprised by any bad news. Any better than expected economy new from now on is going to rally the market. Maybe Santa is coming to town.
As trend followers, we are still patiently waiting at the sideline. We may miss some short term rallies and even initial rally if the bear trend reverse itself but it is always better and with less risk to buy into the market when the up trend is well established.
Wall street put on a brave face over government's dismal employment report. Stock market initially reacted badly to the report but turned around to the upside in the afternoon. The S&P 500 index gained more than 3% for the day. This usually is a good sign for the market since investors are expecting worsen economy condition and won't be surprised by any bad news. Any better than expected economy new from now on is going to rally the market. Maybe Santa is coming to town.
As trend followers, we are still patiently waiting at the sideline. We may miss some short term rallies and even initial rally if the bear trend reverse itself but it is always better and with less risk to buy into the market when the up trend is well established.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 12/02/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Now, they tell us what we have known and felt for a while that we have been in recession since December, 2007. The timing is much earlier than we expected, and in my opinion, this is just a ploy to lead us to believe that the recession will be over soon. It took more than 9 months for the effect of housing price collapse to be felt by the financial system. The effect of financial crisis is far more reaching and will take more time to ripple through the whole economy. It will take us a while to climb out of this hole.
Now, they tell us what we have known and felt for a while that we have been in recession since December, 2007. The timing is much earlier than we expected, and in my opinion, this is just a ploy to lead us to believe that the recession will be over soon. It took more than 9 months for the effect of housing price collapse to be felt by the financial system. The effect of financial crisis is far more reaching and will take more time to ripple through the whole economy. It will take us a while to climb out of this hole.
Fund Rankings Update, 11/28/2008
Happy Thanksgiving!
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
With President-elect Obama's announcement of his economy team, market got back some confidence the past week. Major indexes reversed their slides and put out a good performance this Thanksgiving week. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 9.7%, S&P 500 index increased 12% and NASDAQ Composite Index went up 10.9% for the week. Market is looking for a bottom, but economy condition has not improved and may get worse. I am skeptical about the sustainability of any rallies before AMI turning positive and stock market giving back its extreme volatility.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
With President-elect Obama's announcement of his economy team, market got back some confidence the past week. Major indexes reversed their slides and put out a good performance this Thanksgiving week. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 9.7%, S&P 500 index increased 12% and NASDAQ Composite Index went up 10.9% for the week. Market is looking for a bottom, but economy condition has not improved and may get worse. I am skeptical about the sustainability of any rallies before AMI turning positive and stock market giving back its extreme volatility.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 11/25/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, 11/21/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Major indexes continued their slides this past week. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.3 %, S&P 500 index lost 8.4% and NASDAQ Composite Index lost 8.7% for the week. Negative AMI's have kept us on the sideline.
Major indexes continued their slides this past week. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.3 %, S&P 500 index lost 8.4% and NASDAQ Composite Index lost 8.7% for the week. Negative AMI's have kept us on the sideline.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 11/18/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, 11/14/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Major indexes experienced wild swings this past week and ended up in the loss column. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5 %, S&P 500 index lost 6.2% and NASDAQ Composite Index lost 7.9% for the week. As we discussed before, any rally in the bear market, which we are in now, will be short live and should be used as a sell opportunity to unload your position. Some people attempted to bottom fishing and got burned in the process because they can not act fast enough in this extremely volatile market. Economy is just entering recession, we have to let this bear run its course. Patient is virtue, and cash preservation is paramount not only for managing companies but also for managing personal portfolios in this economic condition.
I would like to share with you a good strategy from one of the investing blog on how to handle the fund holdings you currently have in case you did not unload them in time. Since we do not know if the market will go up or go down from here, sell half of the position regardless of the loss it incurs. For the remaining half, set a 5% loss threshold. That way, if the market goes up you will have some position in the market, and if the market goes down more than 5% from here, you will get out of the market completely.
Major indexes experienced wild swings this past week and ended up in the loss column. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5 %, S&P 500 index lost 6.2% and NASDAQ Composite Index lost 7.9% for the week. As we discussed before, any rally in the bear market, which we are in now, will be short live and should be used as a sell opportunity to unload your position. Some people attempted to bottom fishing and got burned in the process because they can not act fast enough in this extremely volatile market. Economy is just entering recession, we have to let this bear run its course. Patient is virtue, and cash preservation is paramount not only for managing companies but also for managing personal portfolios in this economic condition.
I would like to share with you a good strategy from one of the investing blog on how to handle the fund holdings you currently have in case you did not unload them in time. Since we do not know if the market will go up or go down from here, sell half of the position regardless of the loss it incurs. For the remaining half, set a 5% loss threshold. That way, if the market goes up you will have some position in the market, and if the market goes down more than 5% from here, you will get out of the market completely.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 11/11/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, 11/07/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSRBX, Buy FSLXX
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell DVY, Buy CASH
with the sell signals in SELECT and ETF model portfolios this week, all the model portfolios are officially in the cash position . The AMI's in each of the ranking tables are deep in the negative territory, and it will take a while for AMI's to turns positive.
Economy is still contracting right now with all kind of problems: tight credit liquidity, high unemployment rate, low consumer confidence, etc. It will take sometime for the new president to fix the problem after he gets into the office next year. The recovery and the reversal of the stock market trend will not happen right away.
In this market condition, the best thing to do is waiting at the sideline. By keeping what you have, you are already ahead of others who keep their investment in the market and watch their value going down. People quite often are tricked to believe a market turnaround is a hand when they saw a rebound in a bear market. As I pointed out earlier, these rebounds will be weak and short lives because of the nature of the bear market. Do not be fooled to beleive that these are the onsets of bull market. They are, in fact, opportunities to unload your positions if you are still in the market. As trend followers, we have to wait for the uptrend to take hold. And to identiy the trend reversal, you can read my earlier blogs.
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSRBX, Buy FSLXX
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell DVY, Buy CASH
with the sell signals in SELECT and ETF model portfolios this week, all the model portfolios are officially in the cash position . The AMI's in each of the ranking tables are deep in the negative territory, and it will take a while for AMI's to turns positive.
Economy is still contracting right now with all kind of problems: tight credit liquidity, high unemployment rate, low consumer confidence, etc. It will take sometime for the new president to fix the problem after he gets into the office next year. The recovery and the reversal of the stock market trend will not happen right away.
In this market condition, the best thing to do is waiting at the sideline. By keeping what you have, you are already ahead of others who keep their investment in the market and watch their value going down. People quite often are tricked to believe a market turnaround is a hand when they saw a rebound in a bear market. As I pointed out earlier, these rebounds will be weak and short lives because of the nature of the bear market. Do not be fooled to beleive that these are the onsets of bull market. They are, in fact, opportunities to unload your positions if you are still in the market. As trend followers, we have to wait for the uptrend to take hold. And to identiy the trend reversal, you can read my earlier blogs.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 11/4/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, 10/31/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Market stabilized a bit in the past week as credit liquidity got better with effort from FED and treasury department. S&P 500 index went up 10.5% last week, but for the month of October it still lost 16.8 %. The weekly chart of S&P 500 index shows that its price is far below the 28 week moving average and its stochastic is at 19. This puts it well in the bear territory.
Market stabilized a bit in the past week as credit liquidity got better with effort from FED and treasury department. S&P 500 index went up 10.5% last week, but for the month of October it still lost 16.8 %. The weekly chart of S&P 500 index shows that its price is far below the 28 week moving average and its stochastic is at 19. This puts it well in the bear territory.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 10/28/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, FEMKX, 10/24/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Another tough week for stock markets with Dow lost 5.4%, S&P lost 6.8% and NASDAQ lost 9.3%. For the year, Dow has dropped 37%, S&P has lost 40% and NASDAQ has lost 41%. Investors still do not have a clue where the bottom is.
In addition to the six ranking tables, I also provide one timing model using Fidelity's emerging markets fund (FEMKX) in this blog. I uses my favorite technical indicator, stochastics, to determine when to buy and sell the fund. This indicator has been very reliable in the past few years and has successfully saved us from this market meltdown. You can find the timing rule from my earlier blog labeled "How To".
Another tough week for stock markets with Dow lost 5.4%, S&P lost 6.8% and NASDAQ lost 9.3%. For the year, Dow has dropped 37%, S&P has lost 40% and NASDAQ has lost 41%. Investors still do not have a clue where the bottom is.
In addition to the six ranking tables, I also provide one timing model using Fidelity's emerging markets fund (FEMKX) in this blog. I uses my favorite technical indicator, stochastics, to determine when to buy and sell the fund. This indicator has been very reliable in the past few years and has successfully saved us from this market meltdown. You can find the timing rule from my earlier blog labeled "How To".
iETF and sETF rankings update, 10/21/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, 10/17/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Asset allocation is important to weather the market's up and down. As of today, I have provided 6 ranking tables, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF and sETF. SSPP contains 31 funds in my company's old 401k plan, and nSSPP contains 38 funds in my company's current 401k plan. These funds are more conservative except a handful of specialty funds. SELECT contains 42 Fidelity's sector funds. These funds, in my opinion, have medium volatility because their prices are updated once a day. As you can see, a lot of funds are from Fidelity's mutual fund family. This is because I have been with Fidelity for 20 some years and their fund selections are the largest in the industry. ETF, iETF, and sETF contains specialty index funds with iETF focuses on international index funds and sETF specializes in sector index funds. These funds are traded like stocks hence with higher volatility. ETF are very popular in the past few years because of its tax efficiency, and if traded properly, can provide higher return. One way to diversify is to assign different percentage of your total investment to follow different ranking tables. For example, a conservative approach may assign 70% to SSPP rankings, 20 % to SELECT, and 10% to ETF, while a more aggressive approach may assign 40% to SSPP rankings, 40% to SELECT and 20 % to ETF.
Asset allocation is important to weather the market's up and down. As of today, I have provided 6 ranking tables, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF and sETF. SSPP contains 31 funds in my company's old 401k plan, and nSSPP contains 38 funds in my company's current 401k plan. These funds are more conservative except a handful of specialty funds. SELECT contains 42 Fidelity's sector funds. These funds, in my opinion, have medium volatility because their prices are updated once a day. As you can see, a lot of funds are from Fidelity's mutual fund family. This is because I have been with Fidelity for 20 some years and their fund selections are the largest in the industry. ETF, iETF, and sETF contains specialty index funds with iETF focuses on international index funds and sETF specializes in sector index funds. These funds are traded like stocks hence with higher volatility. ETF are very popular in the past few years because of its tax efficiency, and if traded properly, can provide higher return. One way to diversify is to assign different percentage of your total investment to follow different ranking tables. For example, a conservative approach may assign 70% to SSPP rankings, 20 % to SELECT, and 10% to ETF, while a more aggressive approach may assign 40% to SSPP rankings, 40% to SELECT and 20 % to ETF.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 10/14/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings and FEMKX Update, 10/10/2008
Market continued its sell-off and collapsed in the past week. For the week, DJIA and S&P 500 indices have both lost 18 % and NASDAQ has lost 15%. They were worse than a week before, and we thought it was already pretty bad a week ago in my blog. Market sentiment could not be worse. None of the funds in the ranking tables has positive AMI except Promark Income Fund in the N-SSPP ranking table. Have we reached the bottom yet? Only time will tell. This bear is so ferocious, it will last a while and the recovery will take some time to hold.
I hope you are mostly holding cash in the sideline and patiently wait for the market to reverse itself. If you are in this market, do not sell your holdings into the panics. With such strong sell-off, the market deems to rebound along the way. Those will be good time for you to sell your holdings as those rallies will be short lived. Do not afraid to take the loss. Since we do not know how long this bear will last, stay at the sideline will at least make you sleep better at night. There will be always a bull market sometime in the future. We have discussed how to identify the longer term market reversal in the previous blog. When the time comes, we will be ready and will ride the wave up again.
Here is an update for our FEMKX timing model. We have sold FEMKX and moved to sideline since 6/13/2008. FEMKX closed this week at $14.06. An 2.9% loss at that time has saved us a bundle!!
FEMX Trading Log
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
I hope you are mostly holding cash in the sideline and patiently wait for the market to reverse itself. If you are in this market, do not sell your holdings into the panics. With such strong sell-off, the market deems to rebound along the way. Those will be good time for you to sell your holdings as those rallies will be short lived. Do not afraid to take the loss. Since we do not know how long this bear will last, stay at the sideline will at least make you sleep better at night. There will be always a bull market sometime in the future. We have discussed how to identify the longer term market reversal in the previous blog. When the time comes, we will be ready and will ride the wave up again.
Here is an update for our FEMKX timing model. We have sold FEMKX and moved to sideline since 6/13/2008. FEMKX closed this week at $14.06. An 2.9% loss at that time has saved us a bundle!!
FEMX Trading Log
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
iETF and sETF rankings update, 10/07/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy CASH.
Since this bear market is similar to 2000-2002 bear market, let's review the monthly chart of IVV for the past 10 years. IVV is an iShare exchange traded fund mimicking S&P 500 index. The 2000-2002 bear market was attribute to the burst of .com bubble. The price of IVV went down from its high of $152 in August 2000 to the low of $80 in September 2002. It lost 47% of its value in the span of 2 years. The monthly stochastic dipped below 50 in Nov. 2000 and stayed below 50 til July 2008 when it climbed above 50 and confirmed the long term bull market.
Figure 1
This bear market started in October 2007 due the burst of housing bubble. The housing problem rippled through financial sectors and affected the whole economy. The long term bear trend was confirmed in February this year when IVV's monthly stochastics fell below 50. This bear is now one year old and have lost 32 % so far. We do not know how long it will last and how low it will keep going down. The next bull market will not come until the monthly stochastics climbs above 50 again.
Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy CASH.
Since this bear market is similar to 2000-2002 bear market, let's review the monthly chart of IVV for the past 10 years. IVV is an iShare exchange traded fund mimicking S&P 500 index. The 2000-2002 bear market was attribute to the burst of .com bubble. The price of IVV went down from its high of $152 in August 2000 to the low of $80 in September 2002. It lost 47% of its value in the span of 2 years. The monthly stochastic dipped below 50 in Nov. 2000 and stayed below 50 til July 2008 when it climbed above 50 and confirmed the long term bull market.
Figure 1This bear market started in October 2007 due the burst of housing bubble. The housing problem rippled through financial sectors and affected the whole economy. The long term bear trend was confirmed in February this year when IVV's monthly stochastics fell below 50. This bear is now one year old and have lost 32 % so far. We do not know how long it will last and how low it will keep going down. The next bull market will not come until the monthly stochastics climbs above 50 again.
Fund Rankings Update, 10/3/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy DVY
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBIOX, Buy FSRBX
Panic swept through wall street in the past week. DJIA tanked 7 % and NASDAQ loss 10% in a week! From SSPP Trading Log, they both sank to the level unseen since June 2004. It seems that a long hard winter is ahead of us. Hope the 700 billion bailout plan can work its magic to provide some cushion to the economy and stock market.
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy DVY
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBIOX, Buy FSRBX
Panic swept through wall street in the past week. DJIA tanked 7 % and NASDAQ loss 10% in a week! From SSPP Trading Log, they both sank to the level unseen since June 2004. It seems that a long hard winter is ahead of us. Hope the 700 billion bailout plan can work its magic to provide some cushion to the economy and stock market.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 9/30/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, 9/26/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Bear Sterns, Fannie Mac, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merril Lynch, WaMu, Wochovia. The list of troubled financial institutes is getting longer and longer, while the $700 billion bailout plan is still up in the air. Uncertainty brings volatility. Dow Jones Industry Average opened this week at 11400, went down560 points to the low of 10840 before climbing back to 11140 at close of the week. Again, we are sitting at the side line before the trend turning around.
Bear Sterns, Fannie Mac, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merril Lynch, WaMu, Wochovia. The list of troubled financial institutes is getting longer and longer, while the $700 billion bailout plan is still up in the air. Uncertainty brings volatility. Dow Jones Industry Average opened this week at 11400, went down560 points to the low of 10840 before climbing back to 11140 at close of the week. Again, we are sitting at the side line before the trend turning around.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 9/23/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, 9/19/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
It was a turbulent week for wall street. With Lehman Brothers went under and AIG was in the brink of bankruptcy, global financial system was in danger of collapsing. Think about the situation where money in the money market funds are no longer safe or the money in the bank is not there when you want to withdraw. Government was forced to step in and quickly came up with the bail out plan to restore the investor confidence. At the end of the week, the index stood about the same as the beginning of the week.
The biggest question for people with trading in mind during this chaos time is should I get in to buy or should I sell to cut loss. When the market was dropping like a rock due to tremendous fear, do you have the guts to buy? And when the market is popping up crazy, can you resist the greed to hold and sell to cut your losses? That is why it is so important to have a well defined buy and sell rule to guide you through these tough time if you decide to trade the market. Stick to your trading plan and do not let emotion take over your trading decisions.
It was a turbulent week for wall street. With Lehman Brothers went under and AIG was in the brink of bankruptcy, global financial system was in danger of collapsing. Think about the situation where money in the money market funds are no longer safe or the money in the bank is not there when you want to withdraw. Government was forced to step in and quickly came up with the bail out plan to restore the investor confidence. At the end of the week, the index stood about the same as the beginning of the week.
The biggest question for people with trading in mind during this chaos time is should I get in to buy or should I sell to cut loss. When the market was dropping like a rock due to tremendous fear, do you have the guts to buy? And when the market is popping up crazy, can you resist the greed to hold and sell to cut your losses? That is why it is so important to have a well defined buy and sell rule to guide you through these tough time if you decide to trade the market. Stick to your trading plan and do not let emotion take over your trading decisions.
iETF and sETF ranking update, 9/16/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking Update, 9/12/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
General market is still very weak. Each time we had a big rally, the market gave it back either the next day or the next couple of days. In this kind of market condition, even the sectors which are relatively strong can be dragged down by the underlying downward trend. The chart of S&P 500 index shows that the 13 week EMA and 28 week EMA keep trending downward. The STO [15,1] is below 50 and having trouble climb above 50. Holding cash at the sideline and waiting for the market to turn around is the best thing we can do now. Patient will be rewarded in the long run.
In the earlier blog dated 8/15, we discussed about FXI. I pointed out that $40 seemed to be the support level. Unfortunately, that suppoet level has been broken, and most likely FXI will continue its downward trend.
General market is still very weak. Each time we had a big rally, the market gave it back either the next day or the next couple of days. In this kind of market condition, even the sectors which are relatively strong can be dragged down by the underlying downward trend. The chart of S&P 500 index shows that the 13 week EMA and 28 week EMA keep trending downward. The STO [15,1] is below 50 and having trouble climb above 50. Holding cash at the sideline and waiting for the market to turn around is the best thing we can do now. Patient will be rewarded in the long run.
In the earlier blog dated 8/15, we discussed about FXI. I pointed out that $40 seemed to be the support level. Unfortunately, that suppoet level has been broken, and most likely FXI will continue its downward trend.
iETF and sETF ranking update, 9/9/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking and FEMKX Update, 9/5/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Market performance this week showed that bear is still in charge of wall street. It started out Tuesday as the DJIA failed to hold the nearly 200 point gain and end up lost about 30 points. Market tumbled more than 300 points Thursday after bad economy news was announced. We talked about NASDAQ index formed a double bottom, and its STO[15,1] has climbed above 50 in the previous blog. At the close of this week, its STO[15,1] fell back below 50 and the double bottom formation has been broken. The way the index failed to break out from down trend, inidcating that the bearish sentiment is overwhelming.
Here is an update for our FEMKX timing model. We sold FEMKX on 6/13 and are still in cash position for this model. FEMKX closed this week at 22.75, a 26% drop since our sell signal.
FEMX Trading Log
Market performance this week showed that bear is still in charge of wall street. It started out Tuesday as the DJIA failed to hold the nearly 200 point gain and end up lost about 30 points. Market tumbled more than 300 points Thursday after bad economy news was announced. We talked about NASDAQ index formed a double bottom, and its STO[15,1] has climbed above 50 in the previous blog. At the close of this week, its STO[15,1] fell back below 50 and the double bottom formation has been broken. The way the index failed to break out from down trend, inidcating that the bearish sentiment is overwhelming.
Here is an update for our FEMKX timing model. We sold FEMKX on 6/13 and are still in cash position for this model. FEMKX closed this week at 22.75, a 26% drop since our sell signal.
FEMX Trading Log
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00
iETF and sETF ranking update, 9/2/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking Update 8/29/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Market did not seem to have the conviction to go up or go down. Maybe it is a good time to look back and see how useful the AMI rankings system is. People are curious to know how successful I am applying this system. To give you some clue, here is the track record (chart below) of my portfolio value for the past 10 years. I have normalized the asset value based on that of 1998. In 1999, I was transferred by my company to Germany for 3 years. Back then, the internet technology was not as mature as it is right now. During that 3 years my investment activities were almost non-existent and my portfolio suffered the significant loss in the 200 - 2002 bear market. In 2003, after 2 1/2 years of bear market, stock market started to recover and had a robust up trend for 4 and half years. With the market in a bull run, and utilizing my AMI ranking system (I started posting the AMI rankings on my website in mid-2003), my portfolio have grown at an faster pace than the US stock market. With simple rules and disciplined execution, hope you and I can do even better in the next 10 years!
Market did not seem to have the conviction to go up or go down. Maybe it is a good time to look back and see how useful the AMI rankings system is. People are curious to know how successful I am applying this system. To give you some clue, here is the track record (chart below) of my portfolio value for the past 10 years. I have normalized the asset value based on that of 1998. In 1999, I was transferred by my company to Germany for 3 years. Back then, the internet technology was not as mature as it is right now. During that 3 years my investment activities were almost non-existent and my portfolio suffered the significant loss in the 200 - 2002 bear market. In 2003, after 2 1/2 years of bear market, stock market started to recover and had a robust up trend for 4 and half years. With the market in a bull run, and utilizing my AMI ranking system (I started posting the AMI rankings on my website in mid-2003), my portfolio have grown at an faster pace than the US stock market. With simple rules and disciplined execution, hope you and I can do even better in the next 10 years!
iEF and sETF ranking update, 8/26/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking Update 8/22/2008
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSESX, Buy FBIOX.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF are posted in: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
The international markets are still weaker than U.S. market. With lower oil price and stronger dollar, the U.S. market held up better than the other global regions. Within U.S. industrial sectors, the health care related sectors, such as bio-tech, medical equipment, etc., are leading the pack. Sector rotation is very obvious at this juncture.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF are posted in: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
The international markets are still weaker than U.S. market. With lower oil price and stronger dollar, the U.S. market held up better than the other global regions. Within U.S. industrial sectors, the health care related sectors, such as bio-tech, medical equipment, etc., are leading the pack. Sector rotation is very obvious at this juncture.
Fund Ranking Update 8/15/2008
Trading signal occurs is ETF model portfolio: Sell IGE, Buy IBB.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
2008 summer Olympic games are rigorously played out in Beijing, China during these two weeks. We have seen the dazzling opening ceremony, great facilities and China's economy progress in recent years from TV broadcasting. Let's also take a look at the once mighty China index fund, FXI. The following chart shows its price movement for the past 3 years. It started out at around $20 in August 2005. The run-up for the next 2 years take it to $70, more than triple of what it started. At that time, people thought China's economy will keep growing and so was the price of FXI. However, as US economy slowed down due to burst of housing bubble, and sub-prime crisis, China's economy also followed suit. After all, US is still the driving force in the global economy landscape. FXI went down from its high of $70 in October, 2007 to $40 in March 2008 with more than 40 % loss. Currently, FXI is still in the bear territory. Its STO is below 20 and the price is still below its trend line. However, $40 seems to be the support level for FXI. It was successfully tested twice in the past few months, first in mid-March, and the second time in mid-June. We will see in the next few weeks if it can successfully test this level and reverse itself.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
2008 summer Olympic games are rigorously played out in Beijing, China during these two weeks. We have seen the dazzling opening ceremony, great facilities and China's economy progress in recent years from TV broadcasting. Let's also take a look at the once mighty China index fund, FXI. The following chart shows its price movement for the past 3 years. It started out at around $20 in August 2005. The run-up for the next 2 years take it to $70, more than triple of what it started. At that time, people thought China's economy will keep growing and so was the price of FXI. However, as US economy slowed down due to burst of housing bubble, and sub-prime crisis, China's economy also followed suit. After all, US is still the driving force in the global economy landscape. FXI went down from its high of $70 in October, 2007 to $40 in March 2008 with more than 40 % loss. Currently, FXI is still in the bear territory. Its STO is below 20 and the price is still below its trend line. However, $40 seems to be the support level for FXI. It was successfully tested twice in the past few months, first in mid-March, and the second time in mid-June. We will see in the next few weeks if it can successfully test this level and reverse itself.
Fund Ranking Update 8/8/2008
Stock market had a good rally this week. Comparing the two charts below and we can see an interesting phenomenon. The NASDAQ composite index which is laden with technology companies is in the process of forming a technical "double bottom." It closed this week a little bit above its 28 week moving average, and its STO(15,1) is trying to climb above 50. The S&P 500 index, a broader market index, is lagging the performance of NASDAQ composite as shown in the second chart. It still closed below its 28 week moving average and its STO is still struggling below 50. Usually the technology sector leads the general market in the recovery phase. However, I am not rushing to say that stock market is recovering now, that remains to be seen when the up trend is confirmed and firmly estabilished. For now, just be patient with the cash on the side line and watch the market developing itself.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
iETF and sETF ranking update, 8/5/2008
Big rally today. Will it last?
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.Post Optionspan.googlepages.com/
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.Post Optionspan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking Updates and FEMKX model update, 8/1/2008
Market had quite a ride during the week: Monday, DJIA went down 238. Tuesday, it went up 264. Wednesday, it went up again for 186. Thursday it went down 200. Finally on Friday, it went down 54. For the wole week, DJIA only went down 43 points. Four out of Five days, we saw it went up and down for more than a hundred points. This kind of volatility is very difficult for market timing system to work and it is one of the reason why I use the weekly price rather than daily price in my ranking table.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Here is an update for our FEMKX timing model: FEMKX was sold on 6/13 and we are still holding the cash position for this model.
FEMX Trading Log
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Here is an update for our FEMKX timing model: FEMKX was sold on 6/13 and we are still holding the cash position for this model.
FEMX Trading Log
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00
iETF and sETF ranking update, 7/29/2008
It has been a wild week so far.
Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEO, buy IBB.
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.Post Optionspan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEO, buy IBB.
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.Post Optionspan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking Updates, 7/25/2008
As more negative AMI's climbed up to the No. 1 ranks in ranking tables, we are gradually moving into cash position.
Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FICDX, buy CASH.
Trading signal occurs in nSSPP model portfolio: Sell FMCSX, buy PROMARK INCOME FUND.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FICDX, buy CASH.
Trading signal occurs in nSSPP model portfolio: Sell FMCSX, buy PROMARK INCOME FUND.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
iETF and sETF ranking update, 7/22/2008
Stock market was encouraged by the slide of oil price. It has come down quite hard recently, from the high of $147 weeks ago to $127 at today's close. Hope we can get a big relief in gas price too.
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.Post Optionspan.googlepages.com/
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.Post Optionspan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking Updates, 7/18/2008
Are we there (market bottom) yet? Lower energy price gave stock market a timely relief this week. Investors are anxious to find out if this is a trend reversal or a temporary rebound. Looking at the chart for S&P500, the STO is at 12, in a severe oversold condition, the price is well below its 13 week and 28 week exponent moving average (EMA) trend lines, and both EMA's are trending downward. Usually there are short term rallies in an extreme oversold condition as traders try to profit from cheap price. However, before the price climbing above the trend lines, and the STO moving out of oversold condition, we will not call it a trend reversal. So, be patient and wait for the maket to tell us where it is heading.
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSNGX, buy FSESX.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSNGX, buy FSESX.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
iETF and sETF ranking update, 7/15/2008
Negative AMI went up to No.1 Rank in the iETF ranking table and a trading signal was generated for iETF model portfolio: Sell EWZ and Buy Cash.
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking Updates, 7/11/2008
Market continued its downward spiral as bad news piled up.
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell ILF, buy IGE.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell ILF, buy IGE.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Weekend in Chicago
Over the 4th of July long weekend, my wife and I went to Chicago for a break from the kids and the market gloom and doom. We left Friday around noon and came home late afternoon Sunday. We took Amtrak train which run from Pontiac, Michigan to Union station, Chicago. It took 6 and half hours one way. Although it takes more time to get there than driving a car, it is more relaxing sitting in the comfy train seat without worrying about the traffic, and the hassle of finding the ways and parking space in downtown Chicago. We boarded the train at Birmingham stop. Really, it is more like a bus stop than a train station as you can see in the picture. There is no platform, no gate, etc. The train stops on the track and the conductor put a small step stool to help us get on the train.
This is Birmingham Train Stop. It looks like a bus stop. 
Weather was perfect on Saturday, sunny with 78 degree temperature. We visited Shedd Aquarium in the morning. The aquarium is located on the shore of lake Michigan. The view, looking out from the the entrance of the aquarium is spectacular. You can see the high rises of Chicago downtown on the left hand side and the Lake Michigan on the right. We spent about 2 and half hours in the Aquarium, enjoyed watching the Beluga whales, beautiful fishes and the exotic komodo lizard king. We watched the acrobatic performance by the cute dolphins, and saw the diver in the giant coral reef feeding the fishes and the sharks.
After lunch at the restaurant in the aquarium, we opted for the walk on the lake shore to Art institute of Chicago. Its the best 20 minute walk you can imagine. On our right is the Michigan lake shore with the beach and pier with many yachts docking and sailing on the water. On our left is the park with people walking, biking, and jogging. Right before our arrival at the Art institute, we passed the "Taste of Chicago" festival in the park. It was a big summer event with thousands of people and hundreds of food stands. Unfortunately we did not taste any goodies because of the full stomachs. The art institute of Chicago has quite a collections of Picasso's work.
We were tired and our feet hurt after appreciating all the paintings in the art institute. We walked back to our hotel to take a rest. This is the advantage of staying in the down town area. We can easily access the attractions either by foot or by E/L trains. E/L train is the elevated train system that loops around Chicago down town area. With connecting buses and other metro train system, it provide citizen and visitors a very convenient way of traveling around Chicago. Each one of us bought a 2-day pass so we can take unlimited bus rides and train rides during our stay.
Saturday night, we went to Navy Pier to watch the fireworks. To our disappointment the fireworks is not as grandiosely as we expected. We probably set our expectation too high thinking it may have bigger display because of the 4th of July weekend.
Sunday morning, we took the red line train heading south to China town for earlier dim sum since our train departs around lunch hour. With only a couple of dim sum restaurants opened at this early hour, my wife with her experience picked the one that was already half full. Without surprise, customers started forming the line at the door about 30 minutes later. After a nice meal, and 2 lunch boxes for the train ride, we went back to hotel, packed up, checked out, and headed for union station for the ride back home.
And this is Union station located at the bank of Chicago River
Weather was perfect on Saturday, sunny with 78 degree temperature. We visited Shedd Aquarium in the morning. The aquarium is located on the shore of lake Michigan. The view, looking out from the the entrance of the aquarium is spectacular. You can see the high rises of Chicago downtown on the left hand side and the Lake Michigan on the right. We spent about 2 and half hours in the Aquarium, enjoyed watching the Beluga whales, beautiful fishes and the exotic komodo lizard king. We watched the acrobatic performance by the cute dolphins, and saw the diver in the giant coral reef feeding the fishes and the sharks.
Johh Shedd Aquarium from a distance.
Magnificent view looking out from Shedd Aquarium
Diver feeding fishes in the coral reef
Beluga whale enjoys its mi-day swim. We thought it was white dolphin at first.
After lunch at the restaurant in the aquarium, we opted for the walk on the lake shore to Art institute of Chicago. Its the best 20 minute walk you can imagine. On our right is the Michigan lake shore with the beach and pier with many yachts docking and sailing on the water. On our left is the park with people walking, biking, and jogging. Right before our arrival at the Art institute, we passed the "Taste of Chicago" festival in the park. It was a big summer event with thousands of people and hundreds of food stands. Unfortunately we did not taste any goodies because of the full stomachs. The art institute of Chicago has quite a collections of Picasso's work.
Many people at the Taste of Chicago festival
We were tired and our feet hurt after appreciating all the paintings in the art institute. We walked back to our hotel to take a rest. This is the advantage of staying in the down town area. We can easily access the attractions either by foot or by E/L trains. E/L train is the elevated train system that loops around Chicago down town area. With connecting buses and other metro train system, it provide citizen and visitors a very convenient way of traveling around Chicago. Each one of us bought a 2-day pass so we can take unlimited bus rides and train rides during our stay.
Elevated Train, Safe and convenient.
Chicago is famous for its architecture. You can see a lot of sculptures while strolling around. Sears tower is the tall black building one the left.
Sculpture in front of Thompson building.
Saturday night, we went to Navy Pier to watch the fireworks. To our disappointment the fireworks is not as grandiosely as we expected. We probably set our expectation too high thinking it may have bigger display because of the 4th of July weekend.
Sunday morning, we took the red line train heading south to China town for earlier dim sum since our train departs around lunch hour. With only a couple of dim sum restaurants opened at this early hour, my wife with her experience picked the one that was already half full. Without surprise, customers started forming the line at the door about 30 minutes later. After a nice meal, and 2 lunch boxes for the train ride, we went back to hotel, packed up, checked out, and headed for union station for the ride back home.
iETF and sETF ranking update, 7/8/2008
Once red hot international sectors are losing its steam quicklier than the domestic sectors. The negative AMI move to No. 3 rank in the iETF table while the negative AMI stay below rank 7 in the sETF table.
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking and FEMKX Update, 7/3/2008
This week is a short week due to independence day, and also is a week for the "short." Market officially went into "bear" territory according to the 20% rule (20% below its recent high in October, 2007).
The weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
A brief status update for the FEMKX timing model: FEMKX was sold on 6/13 and we are in the cash position for this model.
The weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
A brief status update for the FEMKX timing model: FEMKX was sold on 6/13 and we are in the cash position for this model.
FEMX Trading Log
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00
iEF and sETF ranking update, 7/1/2008
Market was saved by the unexpected good sales number from GM today. However, the international markets are mostly in the red.
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking Update, 6 /27/2008
Market sentiment kept deteriorating, DJIA lost 4.2%, and NASDAQ lost 3.8% for the week. As can be seen in the chart for S&P 500, the STO is heading down to the over sold area (below 20). It can get uglier before it gets better. Although energy related sectors remain strong for now, they will eventually follow suit if general market gets worse. We will just have to see how the whole thing evolves.
The weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http;;/yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
The weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http;;/yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Market Review and How to subscribe this blog, 6/26/2008
What a difference a year makes! Last year this time, the inflation was low and the economy growth was robust. But right now, the astronomical energy price (and looks like it is going even higher) has finally dragged down the economy. It has caused the price to go up in almost everything we use and eat. Higher inflation coupled with the lingering effects of the credit crunch and the burst of housing bubble, the economy is heading into recession. Some may say we are already in recession and it does feel like it, isn’t it? With the Fed keeping the interest rate at 2%, it is very hard for them to prop up the economy while keeping inflation in check.
I have provided RSS feed subscription in the side bar of this blog. RSS feed allows user to automatically receive the update in their bookmarks from the website without physically visit the site. It is very popular and widely used in blogs and news sites. In order to take advantage this great service, you need to have the news reader or live bookmark capable browsers. IE 6.0 unfortunately did not support the live bookmark, while Firefox and IE 7.0 have these capability. My yahoo, My AOL, and Google Reader all support the RSS subscription.
It is very easy to subscribe the RSS feed. Just click the RSS icon in the "Subscribe Now:" section in the side bar. It will take you to the subscription page where you can select the reader you use. If you do not have the reader, you can click the "View feed xml" -->"live Bookmarks" --> "Subscribe Now".
Now, every time I update my blog your reader or bookmarks will automatically update the feed.
All the major U.S. stock indices started the year with a sharp drop and then turned around from their mid-March low. The rebound seemed to be gaining traction heading into mid-May to establish an up trend. However, the consolidation failed to hold up in June, and it looks like they are going down again to test the March low. The DIJIA stands at 11453 after 358-point drop today with a loss of 13.7% for the year so far, and the NASDAQ is at 2321 with a loss of about 12.5% (ouch!).
Because of the uncertainty in the general market and lacking of longer robust up-trend, most our positions in the SSPP model portfolio and nSSPP model portfolio so far this year did not last more than 3 months. From our trading log, our positions usually incur loss if they were held less than 3 months because the system was designed to profit from the market trend that last more than six months. Please note that I added nSSPP rankings this year and have not optimized the trading threshold due to its short history. For the industrial sectors and international sectors, everything related to energy is in the forefront due to higher price of oil. They fared better than the general U.S. market, which can be seen from our holdings in Select, ETF, iETF, and sETF model portfolios. We currently hold FNGX, ILF, EWZ, IEO in these model portfolios respectively.
I started to publicize my blog site last week. You can access from the link in the side bar. The blog allows me to share my view and comments of the market more freely and more often. Remember the FEMKX timing model based on the stochastics? I intentionally took it out from this site at the beginning of the year because it is shorter term orientated and does not fit into the AMI ranking system. I have posted that timing model in my blog site and you can see that it has done a decent job in this market condition. You can even subscribe to my blog site so that you can find out my recently update without waiting for my e-mail or visiting my site.
If you are curious to know, I have not got paid from Google for the Ads in this site. You need to click often so that I can accumulate enough earning :->.I have provided RSS feed subscription in the side bar of this blog. RSS feed allows user to automatically receive the update in their bookmarks from the website without physically visit the site. It is very popular and widely used in blogs and news sites. In order to take advantage this great service, you need to have the news reader or live bookmark capable browsers. IE 6.0 unfortunately did not support the live bookmark, while Firefox and IE 7.0 have these capability. My yahoo, My AOL, and Google Reader all support the RSS subscription.
It is very easy to subscribe the RSS feed. Just click the RSS icon in the "Subscribe Now:" section in the side bar. It will take you to the subscription page where you can select the reader you use. If you do not have the reader, you can click the "View feed xml" -->"live Bookmarks" --> "Subscribe Now".
Now, every time I update my blog your reader or bookmarks will automatically update the feed.
iEF and sETF ranking update, 6/24/2008
With the backdrop of higher oil price, the leading industrial sectors either energy or basic materials related. The international sectors have come down from their high in the past few weeks due to the same problem as U.S., slower growth with higher inflation. Brazil, Canada, and Latin America which have abundant natural resource are leading the pack.
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking Update, 6 /20/2008
Another ugly week for the stock market. DJIA lost 464 point, 3.77%, and NASDAQ lost about 1.5% in a week. The slow stochastics [15,1] for the major market indices(NASDAQ, S&P 500, DJIA) all fell below 75. Market is definitely going downward, although a few funds may still try to hang there. It is very difficult to make a profit in this kind of environment. Following trading rules for our ranking system, a trading signal was issued for nSSPP model portfolio, Sell REIT Index, Buy FMCSX. We have held REIT index for 39 days with a loss of 7.8%.
The weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http;;/yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
The weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http;;/yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
iEF and sETF ranking update, 6/17/2008
See Rankings of Average Momentum Index for iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Ranking Update, 6 /13/2008
The weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http;;/yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading Signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio, Sell FRESX, Buy FICDX.
http;;/yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading Signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio, Sell FRESX, Buy FICDX.
Trading Signal Occurs in FEMKX Timing Model, 6/13/2008
Slow economy and high inflation rate caused the current market volatility. DJIA and NASDAQ have suffered for the past two weeks with big losses. The up trend of FEMKX since mid March, appeared to be holding its own at a time, now seems to fizzle away. The slow stochastics of FEMKX has dipped below 75 (STO[15,1] of FEMKX stands at 66.01, see chart below). A "sell" signal is issued based on our trading rule. We will swallow the loss and move to the side line.
FEMX Trading Log
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/07 $30.81 -2.90%
Fund Rankin Update 6/6/2008
The weekly Momentum Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF can be seen in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Oil price shot up more than $10 on Friday. The high unemployment rate did not help either. Dow Jones tanked almost 400 point is one day. Where do Bush's tax rebate checks go? For FEMKX timing model, the stochastics is down to 76.88, but still above the 75 sell threshold (see chart below). We will hold it for one more week and see how the market develops.
FEMX Trading Log
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73
iEF and sETF ranking update
See Momentum Rankings of iETF and sETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
The markets are in a consolidating pattern for the past couple of weeks. Hope it won't last longer and resume its up trend.
Fund Rankin Update 5/30/2008
See Momentum Rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF in:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
I'll use the blog to focus more on my timng model using FEMKX.
As of 5/30, The price of FEMKX is $32.91. We have held it for 32 days with a gain of 3.72%. Its momentum ranking has climbed up steadily in the SSPP ranking table for the past few weeks.
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73
iEF and sETF ranking update
Rankging update:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
International ETF (iETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iShares Brazil EWZ 95.76 7.2 1
iShares S&P Lat Am 40 ILF 293.25 6.3 2
iShares Austria EWO 38.75 4.6 3
iShares Canada EWC 34.44 4.2 4
iShares Sweden EWD 32.25 3.2 5
iShares Mexico EWW 61.66 2.9 6
iShares Taiwan EWT 16.30 2.8 7
Sector ETF (sETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iShares Dow OilGas Explo IEO 81.49 7.9 1
iShares Dow Oil Equip IEZ 73.98 7.5 2
iShares GS Natural Rescs IGE 149.54 6.0 3
iShares S&P Glbl Energy IXC 154.59 5.8 4
iShares Dow Energy IYE 148.37 5.7 5
iShares S&P Glbl Materials MXI 86.22 5.1 6
iShares Dow Jones Transport IYT 94.00 4.8 7
Fund Rankin Update 5/23/2008
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
SSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
CANADA FICDX 66.02 4.2 1
REAL ESTATE IN FRESX 27.91 3.0 2
MID-CAP STK FMCSX 28.79 2.7 3
GROWTH COMP FDGRX 79.67 2.4 4
EUROPE FIEUX 40.92 2.2 5
WORLDWIDE FWWFX 20.63 2.1 6
EMERG MRKTS FEMKX 32.49 2.1 7
nSSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
REIT INDEX 42627 9.32 3.1 1
FID MID CAP STOCK 00337 28.79 2.7 2
FID GROWTH COMPANY 00025 79.67 2.4 3
EMERGING MKTS INDEX 42625 11.34 2.2 4
FIDELITY EMERG MRKTS 00322 32.49 2.1 5
FRONTIER SM CAP GR 42632 9.27 2.0 6
FID DIVERSIFIED INTL 00325 38.76 2.0 7
Fidelity Select Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
Energy Service FSESX 108.30 5.9 1
Natural Res. FNARX 43.93 5.6 2
Energy FSENX 72.62 5.5 3
Natural Gas FSNGX 54.53 5.3 4
Materials FSDPX 62.42 4.2 5
Chemicals FSCHX 87.89 4.0 6
Communication E FSDCX 21.96 3.1 7
ETF Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
S&P Latin America Index ILF 297.55 6.6 1
Gldmn Sachs Natural Res IGE 151.28 6.0 2
DJ US Energy IYE 149.35 5.6 3
DJ US Basic Material IYM 83.97 4.7 4
DJ Transport Ave. IYT 92.07 4.5 5
MSCI Canada Index EWC 35.13 4.3 6
MSCI South Africa Index EZA 132.83 3.2 7
S&P MidCap 400/BARRA IJK 90.60 3.1 8
MSCI Mexico Index EWW 60.95 3.0 9
S&P MidCap 400 Index IJH 85.69 2.8 10
iEF and sETF ranking update
Rankging update:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
International ETF (iETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iShares Brazil EWZ 100.47 7.2 1
iShares S&P Lat Am 40 ILF 304.99 6.4 2
iShares Austria EWO 39.09 4.3 3
iShares Canada EWC 35.75 4.1 4
iShares Taiwan EWT 16.56 3.3 5
iShares Sweden EWD 32.64 3.2 6
iShares Mexico EWW 61.81 2.8 7
Sector ETF (sETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iShares Dow OilGas Explo IEO 85.66 8.3 1
iShares Dow Oil Equip IEZ 76.98 7.6 2
iShares GS Natural Rescs IGE 157.47 6.1 3
iShares Dow Energy IYE 155.61 5.9 4
iShares S&P Glbl Energy IXC 160.24 5.6 5
iShares S&P Glbl Materials MXI 89.60 5.2 6
iShares Dow Jones Transport IYT 95.92 5.1 7
Fund Rankin Update 5/16/2008
Time to sit back, relax and enjoy the ride up!
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
SSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
REAL ESTATE IN FRESX 29.48 3.8 1
CANADA FICDX 66.38 3.7 2
GROWTH COMP FDGRX 82.96 2.5 3
MID-CAP STK FMCSX 29.50 2.4 4
WORLDWIDE FWWFX 21.23 2.1 5
OTC PORTFOLIO FOCPX 49.62 2.0 6
DIVERS INTL FDIVX 39.64 1.9 7
nSSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
REIT INDEX 42627 9.79 3.8 1
FID GROWTH COMPANY 00025 82.96 2.5 2
FID MID CAP STOCK 00337 29.50 2.4 3
EMERGING MKTS INDEX 42625 11.64 2.1 4
FID DIVERSIFIED INTL 00325 39.64 1.9 5
FIDELITY EMERG MRKTS 00322 33.42 1.9 6
FRONTIER SM CAP GR 42632 9.48 1.8 7
Fidelity Select Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
Energy Service FSESX 111.10 5.7 1
Natural Res. FNARX 44.67 5.2 2
Energy FSENX 73.78 5.2 3
Natural Gas FSNGX 55.39 5.2 4
Chemicals FSCHX 91.65 4.4 5
Materials FSDPX 64.99 4.3 6
IT Services FBSOX 16.78 2.9 7
ETF Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
S&P Latin America Index ILF 302.13 6.3 1
Gldmn Sachs Natural Res IGE 153.94 5.6 2
DJ US Energy IYE 152.44 5.5 3
DJ Transport Ave. IYT 96.07 4.9 4
DJ US Basic Material IYM 87.97 4.9 5
MSCI Canada Index EWC 35.32 3.7 6
S&P MidCap 400/BARRA IJK 93.26 3.0 7
MSCI Mexico Index EWW 61.91 2.9 8
MSCI South Africa Index EZA 136.88 2.8 9
MSCI Emerg Mkts Index EEM 155.10 2.7 10
iEF and sETF ranking update
Rankging update:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
International ETF (iETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iShares Brazil EWZ 95.02 5.8 1
iShares S&P Lat Am 40 ILF 289.29 5.4 2
iShares Taiwan EWT 16.52 3.6 3
iShares Austria EWO 37.96 3.4 4
iShares Canada EWC 34.27 3.0 5
iShares Sweden EWD 32.41 2.8 6
iShares Mexico EWW 60.18 2.6 7
Sector ETF (sETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iShares Dow OilGas Explo IEO 81.06 7.3 1
iShares Dow Oil Equip IEZ 73.74 6.6 2
iShares Dow Energy IYE 147.69 4.9 3
iShares GS Natural Rescs IGE 148.56 4.9 4
iShares Dow Jones Transport IYT 94.71 4.8 5
iShares S&P Glbl Energy IXC 151.00 4.4 6
iShares S&P Glbl Materials MXI 85.67 4.3 7
Trading signal: N-SSPP
Trading signal occurs in N-SSPP model portfolio:
Sell PIMCO Real Return, Buy REIT index.
With the robust market rebound since mid March, the market is establishing it's uptrend. The slow stochastics of most of the stock growth funds and major indexes have climbed above 50. In the N-SSPP ranking table, stocks fund and international funds are gaining momentum. The AMI rank of PIMCO real return has dropped below 7 and a sell signal is warranted. We will buy into the current number 1 rank fund: REIT index.
Sell PIMCO Real Return, Buy REIT index.
With the robust market rebound since mid March, the market is establishing it's uptrend. The slow stochastics of most of the stock growth funds and major indexes have climbed above 50. In the N-SSPP ranking table, stocks fund and international funds are gaining momentum. The AMI rank of PIMCO real return has dropped below 7 and a sell signal is warranted. We will buy into the current number 1 rank fund: REIT index.
Fund Rankin Update 5/09/2008
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
SSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
REAL ESTATE IN FRESX 28.31 3.5 1
CANADA FICDX 63.77 2.5 2
GROWTH COMP FDGRX 80.34 1.6 3
EUROPE FIEUX 40.06 1.2 4
WORLDWIDE FWWFX 20.57 1.2 5
GLOBAL BALANCE FGBLX 22.48 1.2 6
DIVERS INTL FDIVX 38.39 1.2 7
nSSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
REIT INDEX 42627 9.40 3.4 1
FID GROWTH COMPANY 00025 80.34 1.6 2
MSI GLOBAL RE A 42645 10.14 1.2 3
FID DIVERSIFIED INTL 00325 38.39 1.2 4
FID MID CAP STOCK 00337 28.33 1.2 5
EMERGING MKTS INDEX 42625 11.17 1.2 6
FIDELITY LOW PR STK 00316 40.45 1.0 7
Fidelity Select Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
Natural Gas FSNGX 53.43 4.6 1
Energy Service FSESX 107.64 4.5 2
Energy FSENX 70.80 4.3 3
Natural Res. FNARX 42.67 4.2 4
Chemicals FSCHX 88.04 3.7 5
Materials FSDPX 61.67 3.4 6
IT Services FBSOX 16.45 2.1 7
ETF Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
S&P Latin America Index ILF 282.85 5.2 1
DJ US Energy IYE 146.22 4.6 2
Gldmn Sachs Natural Res IGE 146.69 4.4 3
DJ Transport Ave. IYT 92.07 4.4 4
DJ US Basic Material IYM 83.17 3.9 5
MSCI Canada Index EWC 33.93 2.6 6
MSCI Mexico Index EWW 59.24 2.4 7
DJ US Real Estate IYR 68.40 2.2 8
S&P MidCap 400/BARRA IJK 90.00 2.1 9
S&P MidCap 400 Index IJH 85.14 1.7 10
iEF and sETF ranking update
Rankging update:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
International ETF (iETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iShares Lat Am 40 ILF 289.07 4.9 1
iShares Brazil EWZ 94.40 4.8 2
iShares Taiwan EWT 16.68 3.9 3
iShares Mexico EWW 60.69 2.7 4
iShares Austria EWO 37.70 2.6 5
iShares Singapore EWS 14.05 2.4 6
iShares Canada EWC 33.75 2.3 7
Sector ETF (sETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iShares Dow OilGas Explo IEO 79.99 6.8 1
iShares Dow Oil Equip IEZ 71.47 5.7 2
iShares Dow Jones Transp IYT 96.05 4.5 3
iShares Dow Energy IYE 146.36 4.5 4
iShares Dow Home Const ITB 20.97 4.4 5
iShares GS Natural Rescs IGE 145.45 4.2 6
iShares S&P Glbl Mater MXI 85.13 3.9 7
Fund Rankin Update 5/02/2008
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
SSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
REAL ESTATE FRESX 29.41 3.9 1
CANADA FICDX 61.69 1.7 2
GROWTH COMP FDGRX 80.12 1.1 3
GLOBAL BALANCE FGBLX 22.33 0.9 4
EUROPE FIEUX 39.89 0.9 5
DIVERS INTL FDIVX 8.52 0.8 6
WORLDWIDE FWWFX 20.63 0.7 7
nSSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
REIT INDEX 42627 9.72 3.8 1
MSI GLOBAL RE A 42645 10.50 1.1 2
FID GROWTH COMPANY 00025 80.12 1.1 3
FID DIVERS INTL 00325 38.52 0.8 4
EMERGING MKTS INDEX 42625 11.33 0.8 5
PIMCO REAL RETURN 42635 11.54 0.8 6
FIDELITY LOW PR STK 00316 40.54 0.7 7
Fidelity Select Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
Natural Gas FSNGX 51.66 4.3 1
Energy FSENX 67.98 3.7 2
Chemicals FSCHX 86.49 3.6 3
Natural Reso FNARX 40.67 3.4 4
Energy Servi FSESX 100.80 3.4 5
Materials FSDPX 60.09 3.1 6
Const & Housig FSHOX 35.21 1.8 7
ETF Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
S&P Latin America ILF 284.40 4.9 1
DJ Transport Ave. IYT 94.87 4.3 2
DJ US Energy IYE 141.18 4.0 3
GS Natural Res IGE 139.52 3.7 4
DJ US Basic Material IYM 80.58 3.6 5
MSCI Mexico Index EWW 59.30 2.7 6
DJ US Real Estate IYR 70.62 2.4 7
MSCI Canada Index EWC 32.91 1.8 8
S&P MidCap 400/BARRA IJK 88.87 1.4 9
MSCI Emerg Mkts Index EEM 149.64 1.3 10
FEMKX Timing Log
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73
iEF and sETF ranking update
Rankging update:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
International ETF (iETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iShares S&P Lat Am 40 ILF 264.90 4.1 1
iShares Taiwan EWT 16.52 4.0 2
iShares Brazil EWZ 83.93 3.3 3
iShares Mexico EWW 57.91 2.6 4
iShares Belgium EWK 24.60 1.7 5
iShares Spain EWP 62.47 1.6 6
iShares Singapore EWS 13.55 1.5 7
Sector ETF (sETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iSh Dow OilGas Explo IEO 75.29 6.1 1
iSh Dow Oil Equip IEZ 68.34 4.9 2
iSh Dow Home Const ITB 21.01 4.3 3
iSh Dow Energy IYE 141.47 3.9 4
iSh Dow Jones Transport IYT 93.18 3.6 5
iSh GS Natural Rescs IGE 138.46 3.5 6
iSh S&P Glbl Materials MXI 80.87 3.2 7
Fidelity Emerging Market (FEMKX) Timing Model
This is the timing model for FEMKX using weekly slow stochastics (Slow STO [15,1]). Buy signal occurs when %D climbs across above 50, and sell signal occurs when %D falls below 75. I will use some other technical indicators to help me with confirmation. This week a buy signal was issued because %D climbs above 50. In early February, its %D climbed above 20 from over sold condition but failed to climb above 50 to sustain its uptrend. This time, it looks like the uptrend can hold: Price climb above its 28 wks EMA and PPO is climbing above 0.
Fund Rankin Update 4/25/2008
SPP, nSSPP, SELECT and ETF fund ranking tables have been updated:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
SSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
REAL ESTATE FRESX 29.64 3.4 1
CANADA FICDX 61.23 1.3 2
GLOBAL BALANCE FGBLX 22.26 0.7 3
EUROPE FIEUX 39.75 0.4 4
GROWTH COMP FDGRX 79.58 0.2 5
DIVERS INTL FDIVX 38.26 0.2 6
LOW PR STK FLPSX 40.13 0.0 7
nSSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
REIT INDEX 42627 9.79 3.3 1
PIMCO REAL RETURN 42635 11.47 1.1 2
PIMCO CORE PLUS BOND 42634 11.06 0.6 3
PROMARK INCOME FUND 99327 21.24 0.6 4
FID GROWTH COMPANY 00025 79.58 0.2 5
FID DIVERSIFIED INTL 00325 38.26 0.2 6
MSI GLOBAL RE A 42645 10.32 0.1 7
Fidelity Select Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
Natural Gas FSNGX 53.26 4.5 1
Chemicals FSCHX 89.63 3.7 2
Energy FSENX 69.83 3.6 3
Natural Resou FNARX 41.75 3.4 4
Energy Service FSESX 103.48 3.2 5
Materials FSDPX 61.66 3.2 6
Const & Housng FSHOX 35.15 1.4 7
ETF Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
S&P Latin America ILF 273.79 4.2 1
DJ US Energy IYE 144.23 3.8 2
DJ US Basic Material IYM 82.77 3.7 3
GS Natural Res IGE 142.14 3.6 4
DJ Transport Ave. IYT 91.48 3.4 5
MSCI Mexico Index EWW 59.75 2.8 6
DJUS Real Estate IYR 70.98 1.8 7
MSCI Canada Index EWC 32.65 1.3 8
S&P MidCap 400/BARRA IJK 88.66 0.8 9
S&P MidCap 400 Index IJH 84.07 0.3 10
iETF, sETF Ranking updates
Rankging update:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
International ETF (iETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iShar S&P LatAm 40 ILF 283.91 4.7 1
iShar Taiwan EWT 16.81 4.1 2
iShar Brazil EWZ 89.21 3.6 3
iShar Mexico EWW 61.77 3.5 4
iShar Spain EWP 63.35 1.5 5
iShar Canada EWC 33.43 1.4 6
iShar Belgium EWK 24.83 1.3 7
Sector ETF (sETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iShr Dow OilGas Explo IEO 78.85 6.2 1
iShr Dow Oil Equip IEZ 71.88 4.5 2
iShr Dow Home Const ITB 20.36 4.0 3
iShr Dow Energy IYE 146.77 3.6 4
iShr GS Natural Rescs IGE 145.13 3.4 5
iShr Dow Basic Materials IYM 83.37 3.4 6
iShr S&P Glbl Materials MXI 84.35 3.3 7
Account Balance
Average account balance in my 401k program as of 1/31/08:
Balance Ave. Balance # of people Ave. Age
0 - 25K $5,421 26505 52
25K - 50K $37,123 7813 50
50K - 100K $73,522 12197 51
100K - 150K $123,466 8919 52
150K - 200K $173,577 6367 54
200K - 300K $245,226 7938 55
300K - 400K $345,725 4611 57
400K - 500K $445,972 2785 57
500K - 1.0M $652,270 3823 59
1.0M - 1.5M $1,166,384 394 60
1.5M - 2.0M $1,696,140 73 63
2.0M - 3.0M $2,398,927 12 67
3.0M - 4.0M $3,220,380 2 66
4.0M + $4,485,243 1 59
Fund Rankin Update 4/18/2008
SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT and ETF fund ranking tables have been updated:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
SSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
REAL ESTATE FRESX 28.85 2.3 1
CANADA FICDX 62.14 0.7 2
GLOBAL BALANCE FGBLX 22.29 0.4 3
NEW MKT INC FNMIX 14.61 -0.1 4
EUROPE FIEUX 39.52 -0.2 5
DIVERS INTL FDIVX 38.18 -0.5 6
LOW PR STK FLPSX 40.11 -0.6 7
nSSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
REIT INDEX 42627 9.55 2.2 1
PIMCO REAL RETURN 42635 11.59 1.6 2
PIMCO CORE PLUS BOND 42634 11.12 0.8 3
PROMARK INCOME FUND 99327 21.22 0.6 4
FID NEW MARKETS INC 00331 14.61 -0.1 5
FID STRATEGIC INCOME 00368 10.38 -0.3 6
PYR ACT LFC 2000 CP 05068 9.74 -0.6 7
Fidelity Select Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
Natural Gas FSNGX 53.26 3.9 1
Chemicals FSCHX 91.03 2.9 2
Energy FSENX 70.47 2.8 3
Natural Resou FNARX 42.23 2.6 4
Materials FSDPX 62.30 2.6 5
Energy Service FSESX 104.91 2.1 6
Consumer Stapl FDFAX 65.50 0.8 7
ETF Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
S&P Latin Americ ILF 279.93 3.9 1
DJ US Basic Mat'l IYM 83.93 3.1 2
DJ US Energy IYE 145.44 2.9 3
GS Natural Res IGE 144.29 2.8 4
MSCI Mexico Index EWW 61.31 2.8 5
DJ Transport Ave. IYT 91.12 2.7 6
DJ US Real Estate IYR 69.37 0.7 7
MSCI Canada Index EWC 33.15 0.7 8
S&P MidCap 400 IJK 87.66 -0.2 9
DJ US Industrial IYJ 70.74 -0.4 10
iETF, sETF Rankings
Rankging update:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
International ETF (iETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iSh. Taiwan EWT 16.78 3.8 1
iSh. S&P Lat Am 40 ILF 269.27 3.7 2
iSh. Mexico EWW 60.29 3.1 3
iSh. Brazil EWZ 84.15 2.5 4
iSh. Spain EWP 62.18 1.0 5
iSh. Switzerland EWL 25.58 0.6 6
iSh. Belgium EWK 24.07 0.5 7
Sector ETF (sETF) Weekly Rankings
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
iSh. Dow OilGas Explo IEO 74.83 5.1 1
iSh. Dow Home Const ITB 20.18 4.1 2
iSh. Dow Oil Equip IEZ 66.78 2.7 3
iSh. Dow Jones Transport IYT 87.36 2.6 4
iSh. Dow Basic Materials IYM 79.63 2.4 5
iSh. S&P Glbl Materials MXI 80.98 2.3 6
iSh. Dow Energy IYE 138.54 2.2 7
Fund Ranking Updates
SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT and ETF fund ranking tables have been updated:
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
SSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
REAL ESTATE IN FRESX 27.50 1.2 1
GLOBAL BALANCE FGBLX 21.82 -0.1 2
NEW MKT INC FNMIX 14.60 -0.3 3
CANADA FICDX 58.72 -0.5 4
EUROPE FIEUX 38.39 -1.0 5
DIVERS INTL FDIVX 36.73 -1.6 6
LOW PR STK FLPSX 38.45 -1.6 7
nSSPP Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
PIMCO REAL RETURN 42635 11.82 2.1 1
REIT INDEX 42627 9.11 1.2 2
PIMCO CORE PLUS BOND 42634 11.23 1.0 3
PROMARK INCOME FUND 99327 21.20 0.6 4
FID STRATEGIC INCOME 00368 10.42 -0.3 5
FID NEW MARKETS INC 00331 14.60 -0.3 6
PYR ACT LFC 2000 CP 05068 9.61 -0.9 7
Fidelity Select Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
Natural Gas FSNGX 49.61 2.9 1
Materials FSDPX 58.69 1.3 2
Chemicals FSCHX 84.92 1.2 3
Energy FSENX 65.01 1.1 4
Natural Resou FNARX 38.98 1.0 5
Consumer Stapl FDFAX 64.74 0.5 6
Construction FSHOX 33.28 0.2 7
ETF Weekly Rank
Fund Name Ticker Price AMI Rank
S&P Latin America ILF 265.50 2.7 1
MSCI Mexico Index EWW 60.02 2.0 2
DJ US Basic Mat IYM 79.20 1.8 3
DJ Transport Ave. IYT 86.18 1.7 4
DJ US Energy IYE 134.73 1.3 5
GS Natural Res IGE 133.86 1.3 6
DJ US Real Estate IYR 66.07 -0.3 7
MSCI Canada Ind EWC 31.24 -0.5 8
DJ US Cons NonCyc IYK 60.30 -1.0 9
DJ US Industrial IYJ 67.36 -1.2 10
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