Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell NMGIX, Buy CBSAX.
Weekly stock market commentary and momentum rankings of ETFs and mutual funds.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell NMGIX, Buy CBSAX.
Stock markets will close the year in another two days and I do not expect they will change much. The S&P 500 index began this year with 903, continuing the spiral downward tend from the end of last year due the the economy meltdown. It reached the low of 682 on March 5, losing 24.4%. As the economy stabilized, the stock markets rebounded and their momentum turned from negative to positive. By the end of March, the weekly stochastics of S&P 500 index has climbed over 50, and our FEMKX trading system, which is based on stochastics, also issued a buy signal on March 30. However, after the sever down turn, these signals were treated with cautiousness. The confirmation of the signal came in mid-April when the S&P 500 index closed above its 28 week moving average, and all of our model portfolios issued "buy" signals. After the index broke through the moving average, it hovered around the trend line for 3 months building the base and then took off from there in July. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index gained 24.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 20.2% and the NASDAQ composite index went up 45.3%. The technology sectors are leading the way as in any economy recovery phase.
Our stochastics based FEMKX timing model, turned in the best performance this year again. It issued the "buy" signal first in March and still holds the position with a gain of 82%. nSSPp and SELECT model portfolios delivered the second best performance with a gain of 55%. nSSPP bought into FEMKX in April and traded it for ARGFX in August and still holds ARGFX. SELECT moved from cash to FWRLX in April and subsequently made two other trades. It currently holds the FBSOX. The SSPP model portfolio made 3 trades this year with a gain of 27.5% outperformed the S&P 500 index a bit. The ETF, iETF and sETF model portfolios are under performing the S&P 500 index this year. ETF model portfolio made 5 trades and gained only 10%, sETF made 5 trades as well but gained 24%, and iETF made 4 trades making 17.5%. The higher volatility nature of these funds made it difficulty to develop good solid gains as their holding periods seldom last more than 90 days.
Economy recovery is gaining its foothold and the government stimulus programs will keep coming next year. Next year should be a prosper year and I hope it is even better than this year!
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at:http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Real Estate and Technology sectors were among the stronger sectors for the past week. In the international front, Brazil and Latin America still held their top ranks.
I have quietly started the ranking table for HSA. It contains the 15 funds in my company's Health Saving Account. These 15 funds are basically large cap, mid cap, small cap index funds, and income funds. I do not think they have enough volatility and the sector coverage such that the ranking system can take advantage to outperform the general market. In addition, the number of funds is too small to set an meaningful threshold. However, I am willing to give it a try. I will apply the similar rule as the other model portfolios but set the threshold at 5. The trading record is posted in the SSPP_Log page, and we shall see how it performs over time.
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%
FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%
FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%
FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31