YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: 2010

Fund Rankings Update, 12/31/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWH, Buy EWT

There was not much action on the Wall street for the last week of the year. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1257 up 0.07%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.03%, and while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 0.48% for the week.

Today is the last day of the year. Stocks closed this year with a double digit gain again, second year in a row. For the year, S&P 500 index went up 12.8%, Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 11.0% and the Nasdaq composite index gained 17.4%. However, the year-end numbers did not tell the whole story. All the gains actually came from second half of the year. Stocks started 2010 with a mild correction in January and continued their 2009 rally into April. However, with US' economy stimulus running out, Europe's debt crisis creeping up, and China's slowing down, investors started worrying about that the fragile recovery would fail and the economy would dipped back to recession. Lacking the investors' confidence, major indexes plummeted for 3 months from April to July. During this time, S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ gave up 23%, 20%, and 27% from their high respectively and were 7% - 8% below where they started at the beginning of the year. Although the economy data have been bad, the company earnings remained strong. With support from company earnings, stocks stopped the downward spiral and slowly climbed back. In addition, to keep the economy recovery on tack, the Fed has maintained the easy money policy, which also helped stock markets. Economy data eventually turned the corner, and stocks has been going up since July.

As U.S. economy seems to be on a growth path again, I expect that commodity and energy price will continue to rise in 2011, and auto industry will continue its recovery as these sectors have been occupying the top ranks in the SELECT ranking table for a while. Technology and small caps usually lead the way in the economy recovery phase, and I also expect that they will outperform the general market again next year. Low interest rate and slow but robust growth are what I think we will experience in the next year. On the global front, emergent markets are trying to control their growth and fighting inflations. They are also trying to change their export oriented economies into domestic consumer oriented economies, and these changes will make their growth more robust. Overall, I am optimistic about 2011.

To welcome the new year and to reflect my optimism, I have changed the color scheme of this blog to a brighter tone as well as the background picture. I also turned on the mobile viewing template for easy viewing from smart phones or i-pod touch (got to keep up with the mobile life style ^_^). Happy new year!!

Fund Rankings Update, 12/24/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading was thin for this short holiday week but stocks still managed to close the week higher. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1256 up 1.03%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.71%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.86% for the week.

Sensing the pick up in US' economy, oil price has risen above $90 and the price of other energy source has also risen in the past few weeks. We can see the ranks of oil/natural resource related funds rising in the Select and sETF ranking tables. In the global arena, rapid regional rotations have occurred after October. For the moment, Taiwan, Mexico and South Africa are taking the top 3 ranks in iETF ranking table.

You may notice that I have added 2 QR codes in the right side bar of this blog. These are for users who has QR code scanners in their mobile/smart phones or i-pod touch to quickly access this blog site (QR code 1) and momentum ranking tables (QR code 2) from their mobile devices. Use the code reader in your phone to scan the picture and it will automatically take you to the site. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!

Fund Rankings Update, 12/17/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell EZA, Buy IYM

Investors did not want to commit their money during this year end period, major stock market indexes closed this week without seeing much movement either on the upside or on the down side. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1243 up 0.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.72%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.21% for the week.

Continuing the theme in the past few weeks, the US domestic market out-performed the international markets due to the European debt concern and China's money tightening policy. In the ETF ranking table, the South Africa index (EZA) was pushed out of top 10 rank, and the US basic material index has hold the top rank for 4 weeks. The ETF model portfolio issued a trading signal to replace EZA with IYM.

In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the price is well above the trend line and the momentum is very strong, indicating that the up-trend will last for a while.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/10/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FPBFX, Buy FDSCX

Trading signal occurs in nSSPP model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy 42632 (FRONTIER SM CAP GR)

On the news that White house and minority congressional Republicans reached the tax cut deal, S&P 500 index closed this week at 1240 up 1.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.25%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index led the way and gained 1.78% for the week.

With the US economy getting back to a more robust track and US dollar getting stronger, the domestic markets outperformed global markets in the past few weeks. In the more diversified ranking tables with both global funds and US domestic funds, we have experienced sector rotations between domestic funds and global funds. In the SSPP model portfolio, the pacific basin fund (FPBFX) has been pushed out of the top 7 ranks and is replaced with the top ranked small cap fund (FDSCX). All the top 7 rank funds in SSPP ranking table are US domestic funds. Similar situation happened in the nSSPP model portfolio, the global oriented emergent market fund (FEMKX) fell out of the top 7 ranks and is replaced with the small cap fund (42632).

We are still holding FEMKX for our FEMKX timing model which use momentum indicator, STO[15,1], as trading signals. With FEMKX timing system, we will buy it when its STO[15,1] climbs above 50 and sell it when its STO[15,1] fell below 75. The STO[15,1] of FEMKX has come down below 80 in the recent weeks but still maintained above our sell threshold of 75 (pleaese see chart below for detail). The trading log of FEMKX timing model is listed in the SELECT_Log page.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/3/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Good economy news boosted stock markets during the week. The bad job data Friday dampen the investors mood a bit but stocks still end up higher. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1224 up 2.97%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.62%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index bucked and trend and gained 2.24% for the week.

Again we have come to the most difficult period for me in updating the ranking tablea. A lot of funds are distributing the profit/loss of the year to their investors and distorting the fund price. Fidelity has 39 funds making year end dividend distribution this weekend. For example, FEMKX made a 37 cent distribution to its fund holders and its fund price went down 32 cent from yahoo quote. If we add back the 37 cent, FEMKX should went up 5 cent on Friday. For these fund I have to find out the amount of their distributions as best as I can and manually make correction to my ranking calculations.

In the monthly chart of S&P 500 index, the price is well above the trend line and going higher. The momentum indicator STO[15,1] is at 88, indicating that the multi-year up trend is still intact.

Fund rankings update, 11/26/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell NIIAX, Buy CBSAX.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell INP, Buy EWH.

Another roller coaster week for stocks. Concern about European's debt level and North Korea's war threat rattled the market in the beginning of the week, but the better economy news boosted the major indexes on Wednesday. On Friday, the lingering worries about the European debt and North Korea prevailed and the market closed lower. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1189 down 0.86%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.0%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index bucked and trend and gained 0.65% for the week.

The recent pull-back has reduced the momentum of major indexes as well as individual funds quite a bit. For example, the slow STO[15,1] of S&P 500 index is at 83.5 and the STO [15,1] of FEMKX is at 75.28, very close to the sell threshold. We will monitor the market direction very closely in the next few weeks. The pull back also caused some sector/region rotations. We have issued 2 trading signals in HSA and iETF model portfolios this week due to AMI rank changes.

Fund rankings update, 11/19/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Concern about European's debt level and Chinese central bank's raising the bank reserve requirement rattled the market but the successful IPO of GM boost the investor's sentiment making this week eventful but end up flat. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1199 up 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.1%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 0.00% for the week.

In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, we can see that the price is well above its trend line and the STO momentum indicator has come down a bit but still maintains in the high 80's. We can expect that the uptrend will keep going for a while and of course the way up is never a straight line. We should expect some bumps along the way.

Fund rankings update, 11/12/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IXP, Buy IEZ

Investors took some profit and stocks closed the week lower. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1199 down 2.17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.2%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 2.36% for the week.

In the sector front, basic materials and energy sectors are among the sectors with higher momentum. In the sETF ranking table, the momentum of IXP faded this week and its ranks dropped off the top 7 ranks. A sell signal was issued and it is replaced by the top rank fund of this week, IEZ (Dow Jones Oil Equipment Index). Globally, Germany and Austria have come up strong in the recent weeks.

Fund rankings update, 11/5/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Encouraged by QE(qualitative easing) II from the FED and better than expected job report, stocks made big move this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1225 up 3.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.93%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 2.85% for the week.

I am in Hong Kong this week and just came back from a 2 day trip in Macau. Macau is the major gambling center in Asia. Most of the casinos in Vegas strip, like MGM, the Sand, the Venetian, ..etc, have built their casinos in Macau as well. At the luxurious brand stores in the casinos, I witnessed the purchasing power of Chinese tourists. Everyone has 3 or 4 shopping bags in their hands when they came out from the Cucci, LV, Hermes, ... stores. With China and the emerging markets gaining ground on US in economy, US government really needs to figure out how to maintain our competitive edge and remain the dominant economy force in the world.

Fund rankings update, 10/29/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in nSSPP model portfolio: Sell REIT index (42627), Buy FEMKX

Stocks paused for mid-term election results and actions from FED next week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1183 up 0.02%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.13%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 1.13% for the week.

Overall trend is unchanged this week. Technology and basic material are still the hot sectors in US, and in the global regions, India(INP) faded a bit while Austria(EWO) continue its high momentum surge. In nSSPP ranking table, our current holding (42627) was pushed out of the top 7 ranks and a sell signal was issued. We have held the fund for 147 days with a gain of 21%. The fund was replaced with emergent market fund, FEMKX.

For the FEMKX timing system, we still hold the fund as its momentum indicator STO[15,1] stands at 94 this week (see chart below). We have held the fund for 88 days with a gain of 11%. Trading history of FEMKX system can be found in the "Select_Log" page.

Fund rankings update, 10/22/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWM, Buy INP

Stocks slow down their march upward a bit this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1183 up 0.59%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.63%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.43% for the week.

Technology and basic material are still the hot sectors in US, and in the global regions, India(INP) and Austria(EWO) continue their high momentum surge from last week. The Malyasia fund (EWM) was pushed out of the top 7 ranks in the iETF ranking table so a sell signal was issued.

Fund rankings update, 10/15/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Technology sector lead the stock market higher this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1176 up 0.95%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.51%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 2.78% for the week.

With the economy recovery seemingly back on track, the basicmaterial and technology sectors are leading the way in US. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the price is well above the trend line and the momentum (STO[15,1]) is high at 95, indicating that the rally will last for a while. In the global arena, Austria and Hong Kong are coming strong while India still hold the top rank. Overall the international markets are outperforming US markets.

Fund rankings update, 10/8/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ICF, Buy IXP

Stocks resumed its rally this week hoping Fed will ease money policy again to excite the lackluster economy recovery and lower unemployment rate. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1165 up 1.65%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.63%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.31% for the week.

This rally has been very strong. The major indexes went up more than 10% in September and seem want to go higher. In the domestic industrial sectors, the telecom and material sectors are among the sectors with highest momentum. In fact, the real estate index (ICF) was pushed out of the top 7 rank this week and a sell signal was issued in the sETF model portfolio. The top 7 ranked funds in the sETF ranking table are filled mostly with telecom and material indexes.

International funds has outperformed US funds during this rally partly due to the weak dollar. India, Hong Kong and South Africa round up the top 3 funds with Austria coming strong in the iETF ranking table.

Fund rankings update, 10/1/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stock rally took a break this week, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 1146 down 0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.28%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 0.44% for the week. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the index stayed above the trend line and the STO[15,1] momentum remained strong.

By popular demands, I am posting the trading log of FEMKX model in the "SELECT_Log" page. I have updated the FEMKX model at the end of every month for a while, but some readers would like to follow it more closely so I decided to post it out weekly along with SELECT trading log. Note that this model uses technical indicator (stochastics) for trading signals not the momentum rankings. The trading rule is described in the trading log.

Fund rankings and FEMKX update, 9/24/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Buy FPBFX, Sell FNMIX.

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Buy FSCHX, Sell FSUTX.

After breaking above the trend line, stocks remained strong this week. The S&P 50

0 index closed this week at 1148 up 2.05%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.38%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 2.83% for the week. In the weekly chart, the S&P 500 index has decisively climbed above the trend line and has broken the trading range since May. Looks like this rally has staying power.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past and hopefully it is as reliable this time. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. FEMKX is at $24.35, 5.1% above our phase price of $23.17. Its STO[15,1] currently stands at 99 so no action is needed. In the weekly chart, FEMKX broke through the trend line in mid-July, succesfully test the support in late August. I expect the up-trend will keep going for a while.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00 08/02/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 08/02/10 $23.17

Fund rankings update, 9/17/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Buy NIIAX, Sell NAHAX.

Stocks continued the September rally. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1125 up 1.45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.39%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 3.26% for the week. The S&P 500 index finally breaks above the trend line this week although not by much. We shall see if this rally has staying power and turn itself into a up-trend in the following weeks.

Technology sectors especially software and telecommunication are gaining momentum in the past few weeks, which propel the NASDAQ composite index to the best performance among the major indexes this week. In the international front, southeast Asia (Malysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, ..) has been the strongest region in the world for the past few weeks.

Fund rankings update, 9/10/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading volume was low this week due to short trading week and quite a few traders have not come back from their vacations. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1109 up 0.46%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.14%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.39% for the week. The S&P 500 index stayed below the trend line for another week. In the past 4 months, the S&P 500 index has failed to break above the trend line twice. It will be interesting to see if the index can break the trend line in the coming weeks.

Fund rankings update, 9/3/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Boosted by better than expected economy news, stocks went up strongly this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1104 up 3.75%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.93%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 3.72% for the week. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the STO[15,1] momentum indicator climbed above 50 this week. However, the price is still below the trend line at 1120. We would like to see the price break above the trend line for confirmation of the intermediate up trend.

In the monthly chart of S&P 500 index, we can see the index whipsawing around the trend line for the past few months. The economy uncertainty has been reflected in the price action of the index. Unless the economy recovery picks up the steam again (which I hope it will), we may see the index stuck in the trading range for a while.

Fund rankings update, 8/27/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

With investors' worries about double dip recession, stocks continued their weakness this week. However, buyers stepped in Friday to close the week on a strong note. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1064 down 0.66%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.62%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 1.2% for the week.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past and hopefully it is as reliable this time. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. FEMKX is at $22.26, 3.9% below our phase price of $23.17. Its STO[15,1] currently stands at 75 so no action is needed.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00 08/02/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 08/02/10 $23.17

Fund rankings update, 8/20/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Bad economy news beat out strong company earning reports again this week. Investors still worried about the breakdown of the economy recovery. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1071 down 0.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.87%, while the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.29% for the week.

Technically, the S&P 500 index has been trading in a range and has a very strong resistance at the trend line level. As we can see in the chart below, the index has failed twice to break above the trend line in the past 2 months. It will take some heavy dose of good news to boost the index above its trend line.

Fund rankings update, 8/13/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

The Fed had spoken and confirmed that economy recovery has decelerated in the past 3 months. Although the Fed has indicated its willingness for a more accommodating money policy to prop up the economy, the investors' worry about the economy dipping back to recession still pulled the market downward. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1078 down 3.78%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 3.29%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 5.0% for the week.

From the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the index touched the trend line last week and went back down this week. The momentum (STO[15,1]) went up close to 50 but failed to climbed above the threshold this week. Both conditions need to be established for the trend to gain a stronger foothold. This year has turned out to be a difficult year for trend trading as no clear trend has emerged so far (notice the flat trend line since May!).

Fund rankings update, 8/6/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSLXX, Buy FSUTX

Stocks came out strong Monday due to better than expected company earning reports, but the worse than expected job report on Friday casted doubt to the economy recovery and dampened investors' enthusiasm. However, the strong momentum still carried the stocks to the up side. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1121 up 1.82%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.79%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.5% for the week.

The monthly chart of S&P 500 index shows that the index has climbed above the trend line again after staying below it for 3 months. From the monthly chart below, a similar situation happened during 1998 when the index briefly dipped below its trend line and resumed the up trend for another 24 months. Since the index move above its trend line again, we will change our position to buy side.

Fund rankings update, 7/30/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy EZA

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks struggled between strong company earnings and weak economy data the whole week, and ended the week with mix results. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1101 down 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 0.65% for the week. The resistance level of S&P 500 index at 1100 appears to be very hard to break. It will be interesting to see if S&P 500 index can break out on the up side decisively next week.

I have received information regarding changes in GM's 401k plan. Shares in the eight Fidelity mutual funds will be changed to a different class on August 25. These funds will have different ticker symbols but same investment strategies as the old ones. I have checked these funds out at yahoo.com and found that their price movements are the same as the old funds but the price may vary a bit. Here are the changes:

FCTNX-->FCNKX

FDIVX-->FDIKX

FEMKX-->FKEMX

FGRIX-->FGIKX

FDGRX-->FGCKX

FLPSX-->FLPKX

FMCSX-->FKMCX

FDVLX->FVLKX

Since the price movements of the new funds are the same as the old funds, I will still use the old funds in my rankings tables and use them as surrogates for the new ones.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past and hopefully it is as reliable this time. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. After holding cash for more than 2 months, FEMKX broke through its trend line last week and its STO[15,1] increases to 57 this week. Thus, a "buy" signal is issued.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00 08/02/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 08/02/10 $23.17

Fund rankings update, 7/23/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Strong company earnings boosted investors' confidence. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1102 up 3.55%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.24%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 4.15% for the week. It is encouraging to see the price climbed above the trend line again in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. However, we need to see the momentum indicator, STO[15,1], also climbs above 50 to declare the return of the up trend.

Fund rankings update, 7/16/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FRESX, Buy FNMIX

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CASH, Buy NAHAX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYR, Buy CASH

The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1064 down 1.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.98%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.79% for the week. Stocks have rallied for several days attracting investors to take positions, then they dropped sharply this Friday making investors feel like fools. From the weekly chart, the recent rally has caused the s&P 500 index to hit the trend line (resistance) at around 1100. However, it failed to break the trend line on the upside indicating that the down tend still prevails. The first sign of the reversal of a down trend is for the index to climb above its trend line.

Fund rankings update, 7/9/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stocks finally got a needed rebound. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1077 up 5.42%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 5.28%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 5.0% for the week. From the weekly chart of S&P500 index, the 13 week moving average has fallen below the 28 week average and the price is still below the 13 week moving averages even with the strong rebound this week. The weekly momentum of S&P 500 index stood at 19 well below the buy threshold of 50 indicating that the reversal of the current down trend is still weeks away.

Fund rankings update, 7/2/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSAIX, Buy FSLXX.

Stocks continued their weakness from last week and they got even weaker after S&P 500 index broke through the critical support level of 1040 on Wednesday. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1022 down 5.03%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 4.51%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 5.92% for the week. The question now is how long and how severe this "correction" will be, and whether this is going to turn into a bear market. S&P 500 index has lost 16% from its high of 1220 in April.

Last month, the S&P 500 index just fell below its tend line in the monthly chart signaling the end of the multi-year uptrend. At that time (blog dated 6/4), I said I would be cautious and move to the side line waiting for the development. That turns out to be the right call. From the monthly chart, the index is visibly below the trend line now and the momentum is heading south fast. Looking back from the chart, the last time when the index broke through its trend line, the down turn lasted about 18 months, and the one before that, the down turn lasted about 30 months. Although past history is no indication of future development, it is obvious that at this moment the downside risk greatly outweighs the up side, and reducing risk becomes number one priority. By moving to cash position, we will have the freedom and control when the uptrend returns.

Fund rankings and FEMKX update, 6/25/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stocks failed to maintain their upward momentum. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1076 down 3.65%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.94%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 3.74% for the week. The S&P 500 index closed down below its 28 week moving average and seems to march downward to test the critical 1040-1050 level.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. We sold FEMKX on May 10 at $22.37 and moved to cash position. The STO[15,1] of FEMKX stands at 40.2 this week below the buying threshold of 50.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00

Fund rankings update, 6/18/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stocks continued their rebound for the second week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1117 up 2.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.35%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 2.95% for the week. The S&P 500 index closed 5 points above it 28 week moving average. We need to wait for its slow STO[15,1] to break above 50 for confirmation of the up-trend(see chart below).

Fund rankings update, 6/11/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in ETF mdoel portfolio: Sell IJS, Buy IYR.

Trading signal occurs in sETF mdoel portfolio: Sell IAT, Buy ICF.

After three losing weeks, stock finally turned positive. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1091 up 2.51%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.81%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.1% for the week. However, all the indexes are below their 28 week moving averages. The support line now becomes the resistance. It may take some time for the major indexes to break the resistance to resume the up trend.

The current stock sell-off have pulled down the momentum of most of the sectors into negative territory. Only a few sectors, like real estate, transportation and leisure still maintain positive momentum. It is interesting to see that four out of our seven model portfolios are holding real estate sector funds right now. Our ETF and sETF model portfolios move to IYR and ICF this week, the nSSPP model portfolio moved to REIT index fund last week, while our SSPP model portfolio has held FRESX for more than five months since January. For the ranking strategy during the sell-off, the holding will keep switching to the strongest sector which resist the downward pressure the most. If the down trend is short-live, this holding is usually among the strongest sectors to rebound. However, if the down trend persists, the momentum of the last hold out will turn negative, and we will move CASH position since there won't be any funds with positive momentum.

Fund rankings update, 6/4/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in HSA mdoel portfolio: Sell CBSAX, Buy Cash.

Trading signal occurs in nSSPP mdoel portfolio: Sell ARGFX, Buy REIT Index.

President Obama is frustrated over the Gulf Oil Spill while investors are frustrated over the pace of economy recovery. The anemic job creation by the private sector in the May job report on Friday pulled down the major market indexes by more than three percents in a day. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1064 down 2.25%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.02%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 1.68% for the week.

The monthly chart of S&P 500 index shows that the uptrend support has been broken and the momentum is heading downward. The S&P 500 index broke through its long term resistance in July 2009 establishing the current multi-year uptrend. However, the uptrend seems to be disrupted by the recent market sell-off. We do not know whether this signals the start of a down trend or it is just merely a deep correction. Under these conditions, I will be cautious and move to the sideline. According to our trend following principle, we will wait before the index climbs above its trend line again.

Fund Rankings and FEMKX Updates, 5/28/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

We are so glad that May is over. Stocks suffered the worst monthly lost since February, 2009 and the worst May performance since 1940. We can only hope that investors have a better mood when they come back from long weekend and start June with optimism. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1089 up 0.16%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.56%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.26% for the week.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. We sold FEMKX on May 10 at $22.37 and move to cash position when its slow STO[15,1] fell below 75. For this trade, we held it for 56 days with a loss of 1.11%.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00

Fund Rankings Update, 5/21/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWW, Buy EWM.

There is an old stock adage, Sell in May and walk away. This May so far has been brutal. All major indexes fell below their 28 week support lines this week signaling an intermediate down trend. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1087 down 4.23%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 4.02%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 5.02% for the week.

Europe is in a shamble and China is in a slow down. This time, US is in a recovery mode and has to lead the world out of this economy crisis. Although the stock markets have been under severe selling pressure, our holdings in SSPP and SELECT model portfolios still maintain the positive momenta. Hopefully they can survive this down turn and come out profitable.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/14/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stocks recovered some after the big loss last week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1135 up 2.23%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.31%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 3.58% for the week.

In the weekly chart of &P 500 index, the price is below the 13 week moving average but still above the 28-week support line. Its slow STO[15,1] has fell below 75 and is heading downward indicating that the market down side risk out weights the upside potential for the next couple of weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/7/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading Signal occurred in FEMKX trading system: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH.

US Stocks suffered the worst week since March, 2009 as investors worried that the Greece' debt crisis may spread to other Euro zone countries. Stocks started their slide on Tuesday, at one point Thursday afternoon, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 998 point in 15 minutes interval before recovery and at the end of the day closed down 350 point. Panic set in and sell off continued on Friday. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1110, down 6.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 5.7%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 8.0% for the week. The S&P 500 index has fallen 9% from its high of 1219. The official definition of a correction is 10%-15% below its high so we are not quite there yet.

Although the sell-off was intense, the monthly chart of S&P 500 index still shows that the index is above the support level and its long term momentum, indicated by the STO[15,1], is still above 80 (see chart 1below). The multi-year uptrend is still intact before the tend line is broken and the momentum fell below 70,

The FEMKX, however, was more sensitive to the sell-off. Its weekly momentum indicator, slow STO[15,1], fell from 83 to 60.16 in one week, below our sell threshold of 75, ans the 28 week support line was broken. A sell signal is issued and we will move to cash position. We have held FEMKX for 53 days with a loss of 7.3% for this trade.

Chart 1: Monthly Chart of S$P 500 index

Chart 2: Weekly Chart of FEMKX

Fund rankings and FEMKX updates, 4/30/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITA, Buy IAT due to rank change.

Stocks suffered heavy loss due to Greece' debt crisis and the first quarter US GDP number failed to excite the investors. This is the third week the major indexes struggled around the resistance levels. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1186 down 2.51%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.75%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 2.73% for the week.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold it for at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. We bought FEMKX on March 15 at $22.62 when its slow STO[15,1] climbed above 50. FEMKX closed this week at $23.26 with a gain of 2.8% after holding it for 46 days. Its STO stood at 83 as of Friday, 4/30.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62

Tokyo, 4/7/2010 - 4/10/2010, Part II

Itinerary:

Day 2 (4/9) - Meiji Shrine(明治神宮), Harajuku (原宿), Omotesando(表參道), Roppongi Hills(六本木), Ginza(銀座)

The Torii gate at Meiji Shrine is the largest in Japan, It is built from 1700 year-old cypress trees from Taiwan.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

There are wine kegs displayed at the outer entrance to the Shrine. Wine barrels on the left,

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Sake (Japanese rice wine) kegs on the right,

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

The Shrine is dedicated to Emperor Meiji and Empress Shoken. It is a popular place for traditional Japanese wedding ceremony.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

A yellow Corvette on the street in Harajuku.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Crepes look delicious. Each piece is about 450yen (~$5).

Ometesando Hills, a collection of high end stores.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

We have Donkatsu (Pork cutlet) lunch at Meisen. We came across Meisen by accident during our last trip to Tokyo in 2007. It was so good that later I found out its Donkatsu was ranked number 2 in Tokyo.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Tree lined walkway near Meiji Shrine outer garden, a popular place for scenes from Japanese TV episodes.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Spider sculpture at Roppongi Hills, outside the Roppongi metro station.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

You can see the Tokyo Tower from Roppongi Hills.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Wako department store is the one of the most exclusive stores in Ginza, and the building is the landmark of Ginza. The building was built in 1930 and survived the World Wall II.

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

We had Yakiniku grill buffet for dinner. You order the drinks and food by press the electronic pen on the button next to your selections on the menu. The waiter will deliver them to your table. They do not speak much English and there is no English menu. I am glad I had a few Japanese language lessens before. The drink menu:

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

and the grill:

From Taipei-Tokyo 2010

Hope you enjoy the pictures as much as we had fun in our trip.