YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: July 2010

Fund rankings update, 7/30/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy EZA

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks struggled between strong company earnings and weak economy data the whole week, and ended the week with mix results. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1101 down 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 0.65% for the week. The resistance level of S&P 500 index at 1100 appears to be very hard to break. It will be interesting to see if S&P 500 index can break out on the up side decisively next week.

I have received information regarding changes in GM's 401k plan. Shares in the eight Fidelity mutual funds will be changed to a different class on August 25. These funds will have different ticker symbols but same investment strategies as the old ones. I have checked these funds out at yahoo.com and found that their price movements are the same as the old funds but the price may vary a bit. Here are the changes:

FCTNX-->FCNKX

FDIVX-->FDIKX

FEMKX-->FKEMX

FGRIX-->FGIKX

FDGRX-->FGCKX

FLPSX-->FLPKX

FMCSX-->FKMCX

FDVLX->FVLKX

Since the price movements of the new funds are the same as the old funds, I will still use the old funds in my rankings tables and use them as surrogates for the new ones.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past and hopefully it is as reliable this time. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. After holding cash for more than 2 months, FEMKX broke through its trend line last week and its STO[15,1] increases to 57 this week. Thus, a "buy" signal is issued.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00 08/02/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 08/02/10 $23.17

Fund rankings update, 7/23/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Strong company earnings boosted investors' confidence. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1102 up 3.55%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.24%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 4.15% for the week. It is encouraging to see the price climbed above the trend line again in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. However, we need to see the momentum indicator, STO[15,1], also climbs above 50 to declare the return of the up trend.

Fund rankings update, 7/16/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FRESX, Buy FNMIX

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CASH, Buy NAHAX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYR, Buy CASH

The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1064 down 1.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.98%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.79% for the week. Stocks have rallied for several days attracting investors to take positions, then they dropped sharply this Friday making investors feel like fools. From the weekly chart, the recent rally has caused the s&P 500 index to hit the trend line (resistance) at around 1100. However, it failed to break the trend line on the upside indicating that the down tend still prevails. The first sign of the reversal of a down trend is for the index to climb above its trend line.

Fund rankings update, 7/9/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stocks finally got a needed rebound. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1077 up 5.42%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 5.28%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 5.0% for the week. From the weekly chart of S&P500 index, the 13 week moving average has fallen below the 28 week average and the price is still below the 13 week moving averages even with the strong rebound this week. The weekly momentum of S&P 500 index stood at 19 well below the buy threshold of 50 indicating that the reversal of the current down trend is still weeks away.

Fund rankings update, 7/2/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSAIX, Buy FSLXX.

Stocks continued their weakness from last week and they got even weaker after S&P 500 index broke through the critical support level of 1040 on Wednesday. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1022 down 5.03%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 4.51%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 5.92% for the week. The question now is how long and how severe this "correction" will be, and whether this is going to turn into a bear market. S&P 500 index has lost 16% from its high of 1220 in April.

Last month, the S&P 500 index just fell below its tend line in the monthly chart signaling the end of the multi-year uptrend. At that time (blog dated 6/4), I said I would be cautious and move to the side line waiting for the development. That turns out to be the right call. From the monthly chart, the index is visibly below the trend line now and the momentum is heading south fast. Looking back from the chart, the last time when the index broke through its trend line, the down turn lasted about 18 months, and the one before that, the down turn lasted about 30 months. Although past history is no indication of future development, it is obvious that at this moment the downside risk greatly outweighs the up side, and reducing risk becomes number one priority. By moving to cash position, we will have the freedom and control when the uptrend returns.