Fund Rankings Update, 6/24/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CLSPX, Buy IUTIX

Uncertainty about European debt crisis and robustness of US economy still depress investors' confidence. In a move to drag down the oil price and boost economy, the international community decided to release their strategic reserve of petroleum at the same time. This government intervention also did not bode well for investors. Commodity prices and stock prices all went down since the announcement. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1268 down 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.58%, while the over-sold Nasdaq composite index got a technical rebound and increased 1.39%.

In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, we can see the divergent between its price movement and momentum indicator in April. While the price was making a new high in April, its momentum indicator was actually declining. I have pointed out my concern about this divergence in the blog dated 5/27. Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 index fell below its trend line and its momentum indicator was falling fast. Since then, the index has been trying to find a support while the momentum indicator fell to oversold area this week. The correction will not be over before the momentum indicator changes its direction and the price goes back up above the trend line. Only at that time, we will know the length (last time, the index stayed below the trend line for about 4 months before it resumed its up trend) and the intensity of this correction.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/17/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average finally stopped 6 week of loosing steak but NASDAQ composite index still kept marching downward. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1271 up 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.44%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.03%. Fear of the ripple effect from Greece debt crisis and uncertainty about the end of QE2 which will happen at the end of June kept investors on the side line. In this bearish environment, defensive funds such as utility and healthcare have risen in the ranking tables, and some of our model portfolios also have moved to defensive positions to reflect this market correction. We do not know when the market will finish this correction phase and turn around. We can only hope the end of the tunnel is near.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/10/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDSCX, Buy FIUIX

Fear of economy slow down weighed on the markets this week and stocks suffered the sixth week of loss since end of April. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1270 down 2.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.64%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 3.26%. The weekly chart of S&P 500 index below shows that the index has decisively fallen below its support at 1300, and its momentum is getting worse. As discussed last week, the next support level is around 1220, and this correction will last for a while. Note that, the 1300 level becomes a resistance now.

Withe the correction in progress, the SSPP model portfolio has issued a trading signal. It rotates out of the more aggressive small cap fund, FDSCX, and move to a more defensive utility fund, FIUIX.

While reviewing the ranking tables, I also found that, the fund prices for SSGA REIT index, SSGA mid/small cap index and SSGA emerging market index in the RSP ranking tables are not very up-to-date for the past few weeks. As a result, their AMI rankings may not be very accurate. Since these funds are not public traded, I have no other sources to obtain the quotes other than logging into my 401k plan website to manually retrieve them every week. In a month, more fidelity funds will be phased out in RSP and new private funds will be added due to plan change . Rankings of the new funds will be even more difficult at that time.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/3/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

All the economy data (consumer confidence, manufacturing activities, jobs report, .etc.) came out weak this week suggesting that the economy recovery has hit a soft patch in the month of May. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1300 down 2.32%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.33%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.29%.

As shown in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index below, the index is falling right on the trend line and the momentum index is heading downward. It is critical to see if the index can bounce back from this support level. If the current 1300 support fails to hold, the next level will be around 1220.