YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: August 2014

Fund Rankings Update, 8/29/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Positive economic data in 2nd quarter GDP out weighed the geopolitical tension in Ukraine this past week. S&P 500 index stands at 2003, up 0.75%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.57%, and Nasdaq composite index increased 0.92% for the week.

As shown in the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has resumed its up trend and reached the all time record high of 2000. It broke through 2000 on Monday and spent the next four days successfully defended the position. As 2000 is an all time record high and a round number, we expect it to be a heavier psychological resistance and may cause more consolidation action. However, both daily and weekly momenta of the index are still heading higher, the intermediate up trend should stay intact.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/22/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Encouraged by strong economic data on housing starts and manufacturing activity, stocks advanced broadly this past week. S&P 500 index stands at 1988, up 1.71%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.03%, and Nasdaq composite index increased 1.65% for the week.

S&P 500 index continued its rebound from the 28 week moving average as shown in the weekly chart. The weekly momentum indicator, STO, has stopped falling and headed back up. The up trend since January 2013 has resumed and is expected to last for a while.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/15/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks continued its rebound amid summer's light trading. S&P 500 index stands at 1955, up 1.22%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.66%, and technology loaded Nasdaq composite index increase 2.15% for the week.

S&P 500 index, following the past pattern, rebounded from trend line after forming a long tail candle in the weekly chart (see last week's blog). In the daily chart, the index has climbed back to its 50 day moving average, the STO indicator is crossing above 50, and the MACD has turned positive. As stated last week, investors who can tolerate higher risk level can start buying into the market to catch the next wave up.

Weekly chart of SP 500 index

Daily chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/8/2014

After sell-off a week before, markets tried to stabilize and manged to elk out a small gain amid lingering geopolitical tension and worries about European economic growth. S&P 500 index climbed a bit to 1931, up 0.33%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.37%, and technology loaded Nasdaq composite index increase 0.42% for the week.

Last week we talked about long tailed candled bounced off from trend line in weekly chart of S&P 500 index. As shown in the chart below, the long tail candle with the tip nearly touching the trend line. If the past pattern holds up, we should see the index turning around in the next week or two. In the daily chart, the stochastic oscillator (STO) and MACD are turning around, and traders can start taking positions in the markets when daily STO climbs back above 20 and MACD histogram (blue number in the chart) becomes positive.

The consolidation and sell-off have caused the sector rotation as traders and investors adjusted their portfolio to reduce the risk exposure. After last week's trading signal in sETF, we have two trading signals issued this week. In the ETF model portfolio, we change the position from engergy related IGE to China ETF fund, FXI, due to its economy recovery. In the RSP model portfolio, we are changing position from large cap fund, 05087 to emerging market index, 42627. We have held IGE for only 32 days with 4.12% loss and have held 05087 for 123 days with a gain of 2.88%.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

Daily Chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/1/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEO, Buy IYW.

Selective default of Argentina's debt, bank trouble in Portuguese, and geopolitical tension in Ukraine and Gaza handed wall street the largest weekly drop the year. S&P 500 index fell to 1925, down 2.59%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.75%, and technology loaded Nasdaq composite index decrease 2.18% for the week.

As stock prices trending higher, they get more vulnerable to outside stimulus. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index below, we can see the long red candles occurred 3 times this year. The first one in mid January, the second time in end of March and the third time this past week. In each time, the 28 week moving average was successfully tested and the index rebounded in a week of two. Currently, the 28 week moving average is at 1894 which is also the resistance level during March- May consolidation period. This 1890-1900 level should provide firm support to this pull-back and we hope that the market can rebound from there.

After hitting the $100 resistance in mid-June, IEO has been weak and has seen its momentum dropping. Its AMI rank dropped to 10 this past week, and we will replace it with the current number one ranked fund, IYW in the sETF ranking table. We have held IEO for 88 days with a profit of 1.4%.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index