Fund Rankings Update, 4/24/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.


Better-than-expected earnings reports especially from technology sectors pushed Nasdaq composite index into record territory. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2117, up 1.75%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.42%, and Nasdaq composite index increased 3.25%.    

S&P 500 index is again trading at the top of the trading channel between 2040 and 2120. The index looks to be ready to break the channel on the upside as its momentum indicator is turning upward in the weekly chart.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

We have discussed the weekly chart patten of oil price index, $WTIC, a few times before. In the weekly chart below, one can observe clearly the text book "W" shape bottom formed in the past few months. The index is reaching its 28 week moving average at $60 as indicated in my blog dated 3/27. With its high momentum, the index may overshoot and break above the resistance.  However the first resistance after a sharp decline ususally is the strongest.  It will be interesting to see how the index behaves in the next few weeks.

Weekly chart of Spot Oil Price

Fund Rankings Update, 4/17/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX model portfolio: Sell CASH, Buy FEMKX.

First quarter arnings  reported by companies were not as bad as expected, which pushed US stocks higher in the first few days of the week. However, fear of Greece's inability to make scheduled payment on its bailout loan surfaced again on Friday, and to make things worse, China announced tightening of its trading regulation. Affected by the news, stocks fell sharply Friday, at one point Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 350 points, wiped out the gain from the first few day of the week and ended up lower.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2081, down 0.99%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost  1.28%, and Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.28%.    

Even with the sharp one day drop, S&P 500 index is still trading within the 2040 to 2120 channel and above its support as observed in the weekly chart. Its momentum indicator is still flat but picks up a bit at the end. We have expected higher volatility during the earning report season and may have to wait for another few weeks to get a sense of where this market is headed.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fidelity Emerging Markets fund has picked up momentum again after dipping below 75 briefly in March. As the momentum indicator climbed back above 80, a trading signal was issued to move from cash position into long position for FEMKX timing system. In the weekly chart below, we can see the high volatility of the fund due to both economic condition in the emerging markets and exchange rate. Since beginning of the year, it has made a higher high and higher low bullish pattern. Going forward, we think FEMKX is likely to trend upward with the same volatility.  Detail trading record of FEMKX timing system can be seen in the trading logs page. 

Weekly chart of FEMK

 

Fund Rankings Update, 4/10/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell MLAAX, Buy FKASX.

US stocks opened significantly lower Monday due to the bad job report from previous Friday. However they quickly reversed the drop and ended up higher setting the tone for the rest of the week. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2102, up 1.79%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained  1.66%, and Nasdaq composite index increased 2.23%.  Earning report season has started and companies will report their first quarter earning in next few weeks. We will see the fist impact of strong dollar and falling energy prices to company earnings. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to be lower by 5% year over year so we expect higher volatility in individual stocks.   

In the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has been trading in the 2040 to 2120 channel for six weeks. Its momentum indicator has been flat as investors are waiting for direction. A break either to the upside or to the down side will signal the next trending move. Since the index has been firmly supported by the 28 week moving average, I think the index will most likely to break on the upside. 

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

In the past few weeks, emerging markets with China leading the charge have been very strong. Emerging markets and international markets have under-performed the US market in the last five years. With strong dollar and recovery of European economy, we expect emerging markets to do well.  This may be the year for emerging markets to shine again.

Fund Rankings Update, 4/2/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell MLAAX, Buy FKASX.

US stocks did not move much in this shortened trading week due to Good Friday holiday.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2066, up 0.29%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained  0.29%, and Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.09%.  However, job data released by US Commerce Department Friday morning showed that the economy only produce 126k jobs in March far less than the 245k predicted by economists. The major indices will react badly when stock markets reopen next Monday.

S&P 500 index is till holding up above the 28 week moving average in the weekly chart. However, in the daily chart the momentum is falling and failed to hold above 50 day moving average. With the bad job report, we expect that the index will likely fall below its 28 week moving average in the weekly chart and test the 200 day moving average support at 2020 in the daily chart.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Daily chart of S$P 500 index

 
A trading signal was issued this week in HSA model portfolio due to the strength in small cap stocks. The Average Momentum Index(AMI) of the current holding, large cap growth fund MLAAX, has fallen to 7th Rank in the ranking table. As the AMI rank fell below the 5th rank threshold, it is replaced with the current number 1 rank fund, small cap fund FKASX.   The model portfolio has held MLAAX for 171 days with a gain of 15.6%.