Fund Rankings Update, 11/27/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

 Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 05088, Buy 42627 (see RSP ranking table) .

Following Thanksgiving tradition, major stock indices were flat this shortened trading week. Economy data showed growing personal income, falling jobless claim and upward revision of 3rd quarter GDP.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2090, up 0.04%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.14% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.44%.

Weekly chat of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index stabilized around the recent high level to reduce the volatility in the weekly chart. In the past years, "Santa Rally" usually moved the market higher through out December into Christmas. This year, we have yet to see any indication of "Santa Rally". As we still have four weeks to go before Christmas, hopefully Santa can come in time to bring gift to the markets.

This week another model portfolio moved away from defensive position. A trading signal occurred in RSP model portfolio to sell Black Rock US debt index (05088) and buy SSGA REIT index (42627) due to momentum ranking change. We have held 05088 for 91 days with a gain of 0.3%.  

Fund Rankings Update, 11/20/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

 Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell IUTIX, Buy JLVIX.

After last week's sharp drop and terrorist attacks in Paris, stocks rallied this week, recovered most of the lost of last week.  Markets seemed to be prepared for the interest rate hike in December as indicated in Fed's meeting minutes released on Wednesday.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2089, up 3.35%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.71%  and Nasdaq composite index increased 3.59%. 

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Strong rally pushed S&P 500 index back above its 28 week moving average as shown in the weekly chart. Momentum of S&P 500 index is trending higher and the test of the support level looks to be successful to sustain the up trend. Next step is for the index to break above its previous high of 2125 level.

As market condition turned positive, more model portfolios have moved away from defensive positions. This week, a trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio to sell  US treasury index, IUTIX, and buy Large equity fund, JLVIX, as IUTIX has fallen below top 5 ranks in the HSA ranking table. We have held IUTIX since beginning of September with a loss of 0.45%. 

Fund Rankings Update, 11/13/2105

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

 After six weeks of advance, stocks finally took a breather but fail sharply lower.  Worries about a rate hike in December haunted the markets through out the week after strong job report last Friday. Technology sector and retail sector were dragged down the most by negative earning reports from CISCO and Norstrom.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2023, down 3.63%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.71% and Nasdaq composite index fell the most by decreasing 4.26%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

A long red candle showed up this week in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index reflecting the overwhelming negative sentiment in the market. In the past two weeks, I have discussed the test of the support level after S&P 500 index breaking above its 28 moving average.  A successful test is needed to keep the momentum going and sustain the up trend. Ideally we would like the pull back to be mild and not as disruptive, but this time the rally on the way up was too fast so the pull back we get is sharp and violent. As the index fell below the support, it is critical to see if it can pick itself up and climb back above its 28 week moving average in the next couple of weeks. 

Fund Rankings Update, 11/06/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy IGM.
Major indices continued to march higher for the sixth week.  Job report Friday showed US economy added more than 270,000 jobs in October far better than the expected 185,000. The job report not only provided evidence that US economy growth is still on track, it also provided ammunition  for FED to raise interest rate in December. For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2099, up 0.95%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.4% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 1.85%

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

 Three weeks ago, S&P 500 index climbed above it 28 week moving average and its STO went higher than 50 signaling the close of the 9 week correction phase. The next question is whether the index can maintain its momentum and resume the up trend is had before the correction. In the last two blogs, I have said that the rally has been very strong and the index has move up very fast. It will be healthier if the index can take a pause for a couple of weeks to digest its gain and move higher afterwards.  At the same time, the index is approaching the resistance of previous high in 2125 area so some consolidation action are expected. 

Another model portfolio move from the cash position to long equity position. sETF model portfolio has met its 30 day holding threshold for cash position and move to buy the current number 1 rank fund, IGM, in the sETF table. With this change, only two model portfolios, HSA and RSP, are left to hold more defensive funds.