Fund Rankings Update, 12/24/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks climbed higher along with a bounce in oil prices in this holiday-shorten week to give investors a Christmas gift.  Oil prices rallied on the news that US rig count continued to decrease and the inventory went down surprisingly. Economy data released during the week also booted the rally in stocks as new home sales rose and jobless claims declined in November. For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2060, up 2.76%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.47% while NASDAQ composite index increased 2.55%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

In the last four weeks, S&P 500 index has been slowly making lower low and lower high with declining momentum as seen in the weekly chart.  However, the index is in a short term rebound phase due to oversold condition, which propelled it back above the 28 week moving average. As the short term rebound working against the downward bias from intermediate term down trend, we expect the index to move side way with downside support at 2000 and upper resistance at 2100 around its 28 week moving average for the next couple of weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/18/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks started the week strong in anticipation of   Federal Reserve's raising interest rate for the first time in 10 years. On Wednesday, in its announcement after FOMC meeting, the FED raised the Fed fund rate by 0.25% and made it clear that the subsequent rate hike will be gradual and data driven.  Traders and Investors were encouraged by FED's dovish stance and rallied immediately. Unfortunately, the rally fell apart on Thursday and Friday, and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 600 points in those two days. Plunging oil prices, which fell below $35 a barrel, and quadruple witching day were attributed to be the culprit of the sharp drop in stock prices.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2005, down 0.34%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.79% while NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.21%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

A bearish reversal showed up in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. After a long red candle a week before, the index tried to rallied back above its 28 week moving average.  However, the bearish sentiment still dominates the trading floor and overpowering the bull forcing the index to fall back down and end up below where it began. With the index staying below its trend line and heading downward with declining momentum, we expect the volatility will last for anther few weeks and no Santa rally this year.  

Fund Rankings Update, 12/11/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWY, Buy EWK.

Plunging oil prices handed stock market a brutal week. Oil price went below $36 a barrel, down 11% for the week. On Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 300 points. With the first rate hike by Federal Reserve on the horizon, investors rushed to sideline for a wait-and-see position.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2012, down 3.798%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.268% while NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.06%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

A big plunge in stock prices has forced a long red candle in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. The index has fell below its 28 week moving average.  Again, it is the action after either a big jump or big loss that indicates the strength of the markets. Investors have anticipate a rate hike by Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting this coming Tuesday. Market reaction to the event is critical and will determine the direction for the next six months.

An trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio, the average momentum indicator(AMI) of EWY has turned negative even though its AMI ranking is still above the threshold. We will replace the fund with the current number one1 fund, EWK, in the iETF ranking table. The model portfolio has held EWY for 46 days with a loss of 9.2%. Performance of iETF model portfolio has lagged the other model portfolios since its inception. Global funds have experienced larger volatility influenced by not only the  market condition but also the currency exchange rate. 

Fund Rankings Update, 12/4/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Whether Federal Reserve will raise interest rate in its next FOMC meeting on December 15 has put markets on edge and in a wait and see holding pattern.  On Tuesday, stocks went up thinking Fed will not raise interest rate in December, but on Wednesday and Thursday stock markets turned sharply down thinking Fed will raise interest rate. Interestingly, the same thinking that Fed will hike interest rate in December pulled the markets back up on Friday to close the week flat.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2091, up 0.08%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.28% while NASDAQ composite index increased 0.29%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index closed flat for the second week as shown in the weekly chart waiting for the interest rate decision from Federal Reserve 10 days from now. The index appears to be holding up firmly above the support level with increasing momentum. The index went down during the week to test its 28 week moving average and successfully came back up to where it was. We expect the index to be flat before the rate hike decision from the FED.