Fund Rankings Update, 12/29/2017

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Apple's lowering its iPhone X sales target put pressure on technology sector and negatively affected general stock markets in this holiday-shorten week.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2673, down 0.36%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.14% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.81%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Happy New Year! S&P 500 index took a break this past week after five weeks of advanced with higher speed. Looking back, stock markets have performed exceptionally well this year boosted by expectation for rebuilding of infrastructure, deregulation, and tax reform from the new administration. Now that all the favorable policies has been out of the door, the next catalysts to push stocks higher will be corporate earnings and economic data. We think the momentum will carry stocks higher in 2018 with moderate gain, and most likely, we will see more meaningful profit takings along the way. 

Fund Rankings Update, 12/22/2017

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Republican  tax reform bill passed both senate and house and signed into law by President Trump on Friday. Stocks drifted lower after rise on Monday as expectation has been met.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2683, up 0.28%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.42% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.34%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

After passing of tax reform bill and temporary spending bill, S&P 500 displayed a holding pattern looking for direction as all the good news have been out in the public. Lacking stimulating news, will investors start taking profit to dress up their year-end performance? We will find that out next week. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! 

Fund Rankings Updates, 12/15/2017

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy FDGRX
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWO, Buy EWY
Trading signal occurs in FEMKX model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

The Fed increased the short term rate by 0.25% and anticipated three rate hikes next year as expected. Republican finally reached agreement on tax bill and will pass it next week. All major stock indices advanced higher on the news in addition to strong November retail sales and moderate inflation data.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2675, up 0.92%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.33% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.41%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index is 6% above it 28 week moving average as shown in the weekly chart. The question is not whether we will get a pull back, the question is when. The weekly momentum of S&P 500 index is still extremely high which should carry the index higher in the next couple weeks but it will be difficult to predict short term sentiment swing from investors. 

We have seen sector rotation in the last few weeks as investors adjusting their portfolios to take advantage of the Tax reform bill and strength of US economy. US stocks outperformed global regions and Financial sectors are leading the way. Several trading signals were issued last week and this week due to momentum ranking changes. Notably, the FEMKX timing system issued a trading signal to move to side line after 320 days due to degradation of its momentum. We have had a nice ride with FEMKX for a gain of 34% in less than a year.  

Fund Rankings Update, 12/8/2017

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSPTX, Buy FSELX
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy IGM

Economy data indicate that US economy added 228,000 jobs than the expected 19500 in November and average hourly earning grew 2.5% over last year, which boosted major stock indices higher.  However, technology sectors under-performed the general markets for the second weeks while financials outperformed the markets due to potential impacts from the proposed tax bill.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2651, up 0.35%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.11%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Market continued its sell off from last Friday but recovered mid week and ended up about where it began as shown in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. The index is about 5.5% above its trend line and close to where we usually see the market pull back occurs. Our view about the market direction remains the same: Continue to tend up with pull back close to the trend line along the way.  

Fund Rankings Update, 12/1/2017

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Progress in Republican Senate's tax reform bill and strong economic data in pending home sales, and third quarter GDP offset the volatility caused from special counsel Muller's investigation where formal national security adviser Michael Flynn plead guilty in lying to FBI.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2642, up 1.53%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.86% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.6%.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

After closing above 2600 last week, S&P 500 index plowed ahead, survived the intraweek volatility and made another new record high. With the resilience and high momentum, the index appears to resume its advance after five weeks of rest.

A large number of funds will distribute their year-end dividends, which causes distortion in momentum ranking calculations. In the next few weeks, anomalies in momentum rankings have to be manually identified and corrected so the rankings in the ranking tables may not be as robust.