Fund Rankings Update, 10/26/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Concern about global economy growth and disappointing reports from US company quarterly earnings drove market downward. S&P 500 index and NASDAQ composite index both fell to correction territory, more than 10% from their highest level.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2658 down 3.94%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.97% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.78%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Technically, the S&P 500 index is heading downward with momentum indicator fell to over sold region. As the index closed below its 28 week moving average, the once support line becomes the resistance. The negative sentiment overwhelmed the positive as index shows no sign of breaking though its resistance last week (high of the week did not even touch the 28 week moving average). From the weekly chart, we expect a few more down weeks before the index stabilize itself. 

One note on the trading signal in RSP model portfolio last week: The adjustment looks to be a correct call from hindsight. The AMI of the number 1 ranked fund in the RSP ranking table last week fell below 0 and Conserv Income Fund took the number 1 spot this week. 

Fund Rankings Update, 10/19/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell FKAIX, Buy VVAIX
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSRPX, Buy FSHCX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGV, Buy IYH

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FDGRX, Buy 99327 Conserv Income Fund

Stocks closed mixed after sharp drop the week before.  S&P 500 index and DJIA managed to stay positive while NASDAQ composite index still stay in the negative territory. Concern about rising interest rates out weighed strong company earnings from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Netflix.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2767 up 0.02%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.41% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.64%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index failed the attempt to climb and stay above the 28 week moving average. As a result, it closed the week below the trend line which became its resistance. The momentum indicator is heading downward, and we expect the consolidating will last for another few weeks. 

The sharp sell off and S&P 500 index' failure to stay above the trend line has changed the momentum rankings quickly and forced our model portfolios to move to a more defensive position. I have made a deviation in the trading signal for RSP model portfolio: Instead of buying the current number 1 ranked fund, SS LG CAP INDEX, I have changed it to buy CONSERV INCOME FUND. As the Large CAP fund is similar in style to FDGRX, and under the currently investment climate, CONSERV INCOME FUND is a better choice in my opinion.

Fund Rankings Updates, 10/12/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks fell sharply with Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more that 800 points on Wednesday. Sell off continued to Thursday with DJIA shed another 460 points.  Rising interest rates, trade tension with China were identified as root causes by investors even though they were discounted when the markets were on the way up.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2767 down 4.10%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.19% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.74%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index plunged sharply this past week similar to the pattern it encountered in February. A slow steady up tend ended up in a sharp sell-off. While S&P 500 index closed above its 28 week moving average in February, it failed to stay above the trend line this time. It is critical to see if the index can climb back above its 28 week moving average next week. If the index experiences another down week below its 28 week moving average, we may see a long correction consolidation phase. 

Fund Rankings Update, 10/05/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks start the fourth quarter with a negative tone due to sharp rise in long term interest rate. Technology sectors and small cap stocks led the markets downward while energy sectors outperformed the market due to rising energy prices.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2853 down 0.97%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.04% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.21%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index finally saw meaningful pull back after three months of advance. The index is still well above its 28 week moving average with momentum indicator STO[15,1] above 80. We think the index will see some minor consolidation in the next couple of weeks while maintaining its up trend.