YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: August 2019

Fund Rankings Update, 8/30/2019

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy 42634.

Stocks rose sharply in the last week of summer as investors seemed to be more optimistic about US-China trade talk. President Trump made encouraging tweets to boost investor sentiment after his damaging tweet ordering company to seek alternative to China. China's "calm" and non-retaliation attitude also helps to push major indices higher. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2926 up 2.79%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.02% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.72%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index

As observed in the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has traded in the 2940-2820 range for the fourth week. The index has closed at the high end of the range and above its 28 week moving average. Its momentum indicator is in the mid-point a bit above 50. As the quiet summer trading season coming to an end and investors coming back at trading floor after the long weekend, we expect the major stock indices will brake out their trading ranges and pick a direction to go in the next couple of weeks.

A trading signal occurs in the RSP model portfolio this week due to high volatility in August. The portfolio has switched to a more defensive position by selling the Contra fund (FCNTX) and buying into Pimco Core Plus Bond fund.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/23/2019

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell FKAIX, Buy NBRIX.
Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IAK, Buy IHI.

Stocks rose early in the week encouraged by strong retail sales and dovish Fed policy. However, Major indices experienced sharp sell-off Friday after China announced new tariff on US goods and President Trump "ordered" US companies to immediately seek alternatives to China in his retaliation tweets. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2847 down 1.44%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.99% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.83%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index reached 2939 intra-day Thursday and then experienced impulsive selling afterwards plunging to the low of 2847. In the weekly chart, the index has fallen below its 28 week moving average after 3 weeks of struggle. The momentum indicator is heading downward. We have discussed about the trading range between 2940 and 2820. It is critical to see if S&P 500 index can bounce off from the lower support next week. If the index fails to stay within the trading range, we may see the next wave of selling pushing the index down to 2600 level.

Two weeks ago, our FEMKX timing system gave out a sell signal and market has been down since. This week, we have two more tradings signals occurs in our HSA and sETF model portfolios to move from growth oriented funds to more defensive funds under the current trading environment.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/16/2019

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGV, Buy IYR.

An inverted yield curve for a short period of time Wednesday stirred up panic about recession and caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging more than 500 points. However, market recovered a bit by the end of the week with positive July retail sales data from US Commerce Department. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2888 down 1.03%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.53% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.79%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index fell below its 28 week moving average intra-week, reaching the low near 2820 and closed above its trend line for the second weeks. As observed in the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has been trading between 2940 and 2820 for two weeks as we have discussed about the strength of these resistance and support in the blog last week. We think the index will still stay between these two levels for the coming couple of weeks. As long as the index closes above its trend line, the general uptrend is still intact.

After trading signal from FEMKX timing system last week, a trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio to move the position from software sector fund, IGV, to real estate fund, IYR, which has been strong in the past few weeks because of the low interest rate environment. We have held IGV for more than 5 months with a gain of 3.5%.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/9/2019

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks slowed its slide this week as trade friction with China dominated the news. Major indices plunged on Monday as China devalued its currency. Investors were afraid that the trade war may expand to a currency war. Stocks recovered mid-week but fell back on Friday as President Trump told reporter that he is not prepare to make deal with China. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2918 down 0.46%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.75% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.56%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index opened with a gap down and went down to 2822, less than 1% above the 2800 support level we talked about last week, at the beginning of the week. The index rebounded strongly mid-week but failed to break the resistance at 2940 level and closed the week at 2918, still lower than the close of the previous week. The price action showed the strong support at 2800, the resistance at 2940 and the indecision of the market after sharp sell-off the previous week. Falling below 2800, the index will test the next support at 2600, while breaking above 2940, the index is expect to reach record high. We think the index will trade between 2800 and 2940 next week or two before it chooses a direction to go.

Notice that our FEMKX timing system has turn negative with a sell signal issued this week. With the sell signal from FEMKX, we will use more caution and trade defensively in managing our portfolio.

Weekly chart of FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 8/2/2019

Stocks went sharply lower and recorded the worst weekly loss since the beginning of the year. Investors were spooked mainly by concern about Fed's interest rate policy and US-China trade negotiation. President Trump slapped 10% tariffs on another 300 billion Chinese goods highlighting the tension in US-China trade talk. On Wednesday, Fed lower interest rate by 0.25% as expected but closed the door for further easing for the remainder of the year. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2932 down 3.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.6% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.92%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index plunged lower after Fed's announcement of 0.25% interest rate cut on Wednesday, which validated our earlier view in the blog post on 7/12. As observed in the weekly chart, the index is forming a top and the sizes of the candles have increased in the last 4 weeks signaling higher volatility in the market. The index has fallen below the 2940-2950 support level and we expect to see more downward movement in the coming weeks. The next meaningful support level is around 2800. We will see how the index perform from here on and see if it will get to that level.