YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: 2020

Fund Rankings Update, 12/25/2020

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

News about new variant of Codv-19 virus identified in England pushed down investors sentiment while the passage of stimulus bill pulled up the stock markets. Stocks ends up almost flat with big Tech and small cap leading the way in this holiday shorted trading week. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.17% to 3703, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.07% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.38%.

S&P 500 hovered around 3700 for the fourth week and stays 8.2% above its 28 week EMA. Its momentum indicator is in the extreme overbought region and showing sign of slow down. It is possible that the index will push a bit higher before the correction to the trend line.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/18/2020

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CLSPX, Buy NSVAX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYT, Buy ILF

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IYT, Buy IEZ

Signs of progress in congress to reach an agreement on stimulus bill and rollout of Codv-19 vaccine pushed the major indices to record high while discouraging economy data in unemployment and retail sales indicated the slow down of economy recovery by the second wave of the pandemic. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.25% to 3709, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.44% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.05%.

S&P 500 index finally closed above the psychological barrier of 3700, and stays 9% above its 28 week EMA. Our market outlook stays the same: The index will likely marching higher into early next year due to positive seasonality but caution is warranted as it is too far away from its trendline.

Three trading signals occur in our model portfolios this week due to the recent surge in small cap stocks and energy sectors. So far this year, our SSPP, SELECT, FEMKX, and RSP model portfolios have handily beaten the 14.8% of S&P 500 index. Wish everyone a Happy Holiday and looking forward to another profitable year next year!

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/11/2020

News on imminent vaccine approval from FDA was out-shadowed by the uncertainty of stimulus bill from congress. Weekly jobless claims jumped from 720k to 850k due to the recent wave of infection also weighed in on investor sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.96% to 3663, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.57% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.69%.

S&P 500 index closed below 3700 for the second week and stays 8.3% above its 28 week moving average. Its momentum indicator is still heading higher in the overbought region due to positive seasonality effect. Our cautious outlook remains the same as index is marching higher.

Mutual funds and ETF funds started to distribute year-end capital gains and dividends. In some cases, they even split the fund prices to attract more investors. These information are difficult to obtain and process ahead of the time for momentum ranking calculation. Please keep in mind that with these large fund prices adjustments, the rankings in the momentum ranking tables won't be very reliable in December.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/4/2020

Trading signal occurs in iETF, Sell EWD, Buy EWY.

Prospect of new economic stimulus package coupled with positive vaccine news for approval and availability pushed all major indices further into record territories. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.67% to 3699, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.03% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.12%.

S&P 500 index broke above the top of flag formation and closed at 3699, one point below the psychological resistance of 3700. As it broke the bull flag pattern, the index looks to go higher in the next few weeks with positive seasonality. However, it is prudent to start reducing the market exposure as the index is 10.1% above its 28 week EMA. Looking back in August and February, S&P 500 index were 13.6% and 7.6% above its 28 week EMA right before the correction respectively. Remember that the index always come back down to its average after extended run. Investors should prepare for the coming corrections/consolidations when the index is more than 6% above its 28 week moving average.

A trading signal occurs in our iETF model portfolio this week. Momentum ranking of our current holding, EWD has been pushed below the number 7 threshold and warrants a position change. EWD (Sweden index fund) will be replaced with the number one ranked fund, EWY (Korea index fund).

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/27/2020

Another positive vaccine news from University of Oxford and AstraZeneca ignited the hope for reopening the economy, and on the political front, uncertainty was removed with General Service Administration started the formal transition of power from Trump to Biden. Stocks advanced higher with Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 30,000 mark the first time in the history. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.27% to 3638, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.21% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.96%.

S&P 500 index consolidated between 3550 to 3650 for another week. The index appears to be forming a bull flag patter on the weekly chart, and the year-end period usually is favorable for stocks to go higher. However, our view remains cautious as the index is 9% above its 28 week EMA.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/20/2020

Positive vaccine effectiveness news from Pfizer and Moderna were offset by concern about the economic impact from local lockdown and restriction across the country due to rising confirmed Codv-19 cases and fatality. Rising weekly jobless claim from 711K to 742K and lower than expected retail sales in October also provide evidence of economic slowdown. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.77% to 3557, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.73% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.22%.

S&P 500 index consolidated around 3600 level for the second week. Our view remains cautious as the current momentum of S&P 500 index is less powerful than it had in the July-September period and the index is abnormally higher above its trendline. The short term support from the weekly chart is at 3500, and the next support level is at the trendline support of 3300. The best scenario is for the index to go side way with reduced volatility between 3500 to 3600 for a while before breaking out on the upside. We have only six weeks left to close the book for 2020. In 20218, S&P 500 index plunged lower before bouncing back during the final few weeks of the year, while last year, it robustly moved higher. It will be interesting to see how the index behaves this time around.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/13/2020

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell MLAIX, Buy CLSPX.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy IYT.

With the encouraging vaccine effectiveness news announced from Pfizer, stocks went up sharply at the start of the week before settling down with a modest gain. The positive vaccine news boosted the performance of traveling, leisure sectors, and energy sectors as investors rotating out of the "stay-at-home" stocks. rebounded higher this past week amid post-election rally. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.16% to 3585, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.08% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.55%.

S&P 500 broke through the 3500 resistance, climbed above 3600 right out of the gate and closed at 3585. The index is 8.8% above its 28 week EMA in the weekly chart more than the 7% last week. In the weekly chart, the momentum indicator, STO, shows a lower high pattern as its momentum is waning while the index is showing a higher high. The divergence between momentum and price movement in addition to the high deviation between the index and its trend line is a sign for caution going forward.

Trading signals were issued in the HSA and sETF model portfolio due to the recent sector rotation. In HSA model portfolio, mid-cap growth fund, CLSPX, took over the large cap fund, MLAIX. We have held MLAIX for 161 days with a profit of 19%. In sETF model portfolio, home construction sector fund, IYB, is replaced with transport index fund, IYT. we have held IYB for 109 days with a profit of 7%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/6/2020

Stocks rebounded higher this past week amid post-election rally. Even though the winner of the election is still yet to be called, investors were encouraged that as no Democrat "blue wave" occurred there will not be dramatic economic and fiscal policy changes from the congress. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 7.32% to 3509, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6.87% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 9.01%.

After closed near the strong trend line support at 3200 a week ago, S&P 500 index rebounded strongly back to the 3500 resistance level. The index is again 7% above its 28 week EMA in the weekly chart. Going forward, we would like to see the index consolidate around 3500 level to keep the uptrend more robust.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/30/2020

Stocks suffered the worst weekly loss since March as US election is only 4 days away. Resurgent of the corona virus pandemic, uncertainty about the election outcome and the pessimism about the deal for a 3rd stimulus package even after the election. Defensive sectors like utilities held up better in this broad based decline while information technology sectors suffered the most. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 5.64% to 3269, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.47% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 5.51%.

S&P 500 index plunged to 3200 and bounced back up above the 28 week exponential moving average at 3253. The 7% deviation of the index above its 28 week EMA in the weekly chart last week has been reduced to 0.4% this week. Due the the large sell-off, we may see a small rebound next week. It is critical for the index to stay above the 28 week EMA to keep the uptrend intact. Last week, we mentioned that the best scenario is for the index to move side way and wait for the 28 week EMA to catch up. Instead, we got the worst scenario: The index plunged back to 28 week EMA. In the next few weeks, we would like to see the index consolidate above the 28 week EMA similar to what it did in June-July period before taking off. On the downside, the next support level is 3000, if the current strong 3200 support level can not be successfully tested.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/23/2020

Stocks declined modestly this week largely influenced by the negotiation of the third economic stimulus package. 91 companies reported their quarterly earnings during the week with 84% of the companies reported earning so far have beaten the estimates. Companies, like Netflix, and Intel, with disappointing earnings have seen their stock prices punished by investors. Technology sectors underperform the markets this week while internet stocks outperformed. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.53% to 3465, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.95% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.06%.

S&P 500 index consolidated around the phycological resistance of 3500 after the run up from 3200 four weeks ago, and looks to be forming a bull flag patter. As November 3 election is approaching, we don't expect much movement in the price action before the election. The best scenario is for the index to consolidate between 3500 and 3400 for another two or 3 weeks such that the 28 week EMA can catch up.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/16/2020

Stocks eked out small gain after 3 weeks of advancement. Investors' sentiment is still largely driven the the codv-19 vaccine development and the progress of the economic stimulus package. Industrial and utilities sectors outperformed the market while banking sector lagged behind. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.19% to 3483, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.07% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.79%.

S&P 500 index took a breather after 3 weeks of marching higher, and closed a bit below the phycological round number resistance at 3500. Earning season has started this past week and we expect higher volatility in stocks prices in the next couple weeks as investors react to company earning reports. The index is 7% above its 28 week EMA but its momentum indicator, STO, is still climbing higher. After the earning season is over, we expect the index to resume its advancement.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/9/2020

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSRPX, Buy FSAVX

Stocks went up the third week with the best weekly gain since July. The advancement was largely driven by the optimism for new round of economic stimulus and the treatment for Codv-19. Small cap, utilities, and energy stocks outperformed the market while communication sectors lagged behind. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.84% to 3477, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.27% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 4.56%.

As seen in the weekly chart below, S&P 500 index broke through the 3400 resistance without hesitation this past week. S&P 500 index started this uptrend in mid March recovering from the sharp plunge due to the pandemic. It climbed above the 28 week EMA and May and have since retested the supporting trendline twice, first in June and recently in September. With this strong upward advancement, and the turning of its momentum indicator, STO, we believe the index is heading toward another all time high.

A trading signal has been issued in our SELECT model portfolio to switch holding from retail sector fund, FSRPX, to automotive sector fund FSAVX. As economic recovery enters difference phase in the growth cycle, the automotive and construction sector funds have moved up the ranks in the momentum ranking table in recent months. We have held FSRPX for 109 days with a gain of 19.7% gain.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/2/2020

Stocks went up for the second week with small cap stocks leading the way. Investor sentiment was largely affected by the progress of economic stimulus package negotiation between White House and the congress. On the economy front, US economy only added 661,000 jobs in September below the expectation of 850,000 jobs, indicating the slowdown of the economic recovery. On Friday, news of President Trump's contraction of Codv-19 casted uncertainty on investors mind and caused the pre-market sell-off. Stocks recovered some lost ground and still closed the week positively. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.51% to 3348, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.87% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.48%.

S&P 500 index gapped up, reached the 3400 short term resistance level and retreated back to where it started as seen in the weekly chart below. With the political uncertainty (Trump's hospitalization, and coming presidential election), it is likely that the index may trade within the 3200-3400 range in the coming weeks. In order to keep the up-trend intact, the index has to stay above the 28week EMA during this consolidation. We shall see how this play out.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/25/2020

Worries about the resurgent of coronavirus case in Europe and diminished hope for the second round of economy stimulus package from congress weighed in on investor sentiment this past week. Major indices ended the week mixed, with technology and consumer discretion sectors outperforming and energy sectors lagging the markets. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.63% to 3298, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.75% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.11%.

As observed in the weekly chart below, S&P 500 index fell to the low of 3209 mid week, 9 point above the 3200 support level we talked about in the blog post last week. The index rebounded and closed the week at 3298 forming a hammer candle stick pattern. With this price action, we have more confidence that the index will consolidate around 3200 level and continue its ascending trend. As this is the first test to the support level, we expect the index to test the support again in the coming weeks to complete the consolidation.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/18/2020

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGV, Buy IYT.

Positive news about availability of COVID-19 vaccine was offset by worries about the effectiveness of the Fed's easy money policy to drive the economy recovery. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.64% to 3319, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.03% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.56%.

S&P 500 index closed the week 0.64% lower and reaching the weekly low of 3292, which is the first support level we mentioned last week. The next level down will be a stronger support at 3200 level which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 28 week EMA trendline support. We think the index will rebound from 3200 level when it meets the 28 week EMA. As observed from the weekly chart below, up-trend corrections usually bounced off the trendline with STO indicator around 50 (red circles) to resume their advancement. The up trend is still intact as long as the index stays above its trendline. We will monitor closely how the index react around these support levels to provide clear market direction.

A trading signal was issued in the ETF model portfolio due to the recent slump in tech shares. The momentum rank of software sector fund, IGV, fell below 7 and is replaced with the current number one fund, IYT, in the ETF ranking table.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/11/2020

Stocks continued its pulled back, tech sectors leading the way down in this holiday shortened trading week. US economy data were mixed last week with US initial jobless claim remained unchanged from the previous week at 88,4000 while the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose unexpectedly in August. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.51% to 3340, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.66% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.06%.

S&P 500 index continued its pull back and heading toward its first support level at 3275-3290. Its weekly momentum indicator STO (15,1) has fallen below the overbought threshold of 80. After 3275 level, the next support will be the critical 2940-3000 level. The index has fallen from 11.8% above its 28 week EMA two weeks ago to 5.3% above its 28 week EMA. It is still high above its trend line but in a more reasonable level. The index will keep the bull trend alive if it can rebound from the 3275-3290 level, and we will see how the index behave around that level next week.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/4/2020

US economy added 1.4 million jobs in August, in line with Street's expectation. However, investors were concerned about the high valuation of stocks after recent run-up and started to re-balance their portfolio. As a results, stocks fell 3% Thursday and another 1% Friday with large tech companies leading the way down. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.31% to 3426, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.82% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.27%.

After 5 weeks of nonstop advancement, S&P 500 index reached all time high of 3588 and turned negative to the low of 3349. The index finally took a breather and ended up at 3426, but still stays 8.5% above its 28 week EMA. As volatility returns and the index is still far above its trend line, we maintain our cautious outlook for the short term market direction.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/28/2020

News about potential vaccines for COVID-19 boost stocks which benefit from reopening of the economy, such as airlines and travel sectors. However, Information technology sectors and large companies still outperformed the general markets. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.26% to record high of 3508, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.59% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.39%.

S&P 500 index reached all time high after breaking the 3400 resistance and is currently 11.8 % above its 28 week EMA. The index is exhibiting parabolic ascending pattern after the advancement this past week. The high momentum may carry the index higher but caution is warranted as the accompanied risk remain at the alarming level.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/21/2020

Major indices ended mixed this week with communication and technology leading the charge while energy and banking sectors lagging behind. On the economy front, existing home sales and business activities ticked up while weekly unemployment claims went up unexpectedly. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.72% to record high of 3397, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.0% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.65%.

S&P 500 index reached all time high and stayed 9.2% above its 28 week EMA for another week. As the index is trading abnormally high above its trend line, our assessment of high market risk going forward remains.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/14/2020

Major indices eked out another positive week with S&P 500 index moved closer to the 3393 all-time high set in February. Value stocks outperformed growth stocks while utility sectors lagging the markets. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.64% to 3372, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.81% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.08%.

S&P 500 index is currently 9.2% above its 28 week exponential moving average far exceeding the 5% - 6% normal trading range. As observed in the weekly chart, the index suffered a severe plunge after breaking this comfort zone last time in February. With the extreme strong momentum, the index may keep continue to move higher but the higher it goes, the harder it will fall. It is prudent to start reducing market exposure at this juncture.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/31/2020

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy IGV

Major indices ended the week mixed with tech stocks rebounded strongly from last week due to strong quarterly earnings from Apple, Amazon.com and Facebook. Economic data released at the beginning of the week weighed in on investor sentiment as initial estimate of 2nd quarter GDP showed whopping 33% contraction and a pick-up in weekly jobless claims. Stalling of the new stimulus package at the congress also pushed general stocks down. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.73% to 3271, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.16% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.69%.

S&P 500 index continued to move side way for another week. The weekly range of the index is the same as last week, and the high of of the week did not break the high of the previous week. S&P 500 index is 7.3% above its 28 week moving average and caution is warranted if the index gets too much ahead of itself.

A trading signals occurs in ETF model portfolio this week as IBB continues to fall in the ETF momentum ranking table. IBB is replaced with Goldman Sachs Software Sector EFT, IGV.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/24/2020

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy ITB

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell IOO, Buy EWD

Stocks went down modestly with technology sectors leading the retreat. Increase in weekly jobless claim and escalation of US-China friction raised worries about the economy recovery. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.28% to 3215, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.76% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.33%.

S&P 500 index continued to move side way for another week. Even with the side way movement, the index is 6.1% above its 28 week moving average. In the past, a pull back or correction happened after the index is more than 5.5% above its tend line. The best scenario going forward is for the index to move side way and waiting for the tend line to catch up, while the worst scenario is for the index to keep moving higher and finally collapses severely like what has happened in March.

Two trading signals occurs in our model portfolios this week due to momentum ranking changes. IBB is replaced with ITB in sETF model portfolio as its average momentum index fell below 7th rank, and similarly IOO in iETF model portfolio is replaced with EWD.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/17/2020

Banks stocks kicked off earning report season with large decline in profit but investors seemed to look beyond that and focused on increased revenues from trading and underwriting activities. Encouraging vaccine development news from Moderna Therapeutics and AstraZeneca also boosted investors sentiment. Tech stocks experienced profit taking after reaching all time high and under performed the markets. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.25% to 3234, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.29% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.08%.

S&P 500 index continued to move side way with positive bias. The index has stayed above the 28 week EMA for 9 weeks since mid-May and its momentum indicator has been climbing higher. Withe the up-trend still intact, we expect the index to march higher, and hopefully not too fast or we will see severe pull-back ahead.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index