YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: January 2020

Fund Rankings Update, 1/24/2020

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell VVIAX, Buy MLAIX
Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy IYW

Stocks moved lower amid investors' worriers about the decline of global travel and economic activities due to the outbreak of coronavirus in China. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.03% to 3295, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.22% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.79%.

S&P 500 index pulled back a bit but is still 6.4% above its 28 week moving average. Our cautious stance on the market direction stays the same and will react quickly to market pullback. 3245 will be the first support to watch for if the market pulls back. A more severe downward consolidation will follow if S&P 500 index fails to defend the 3245 support level.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/17/2020

Stocks advanced higher encouraged by the signing of phase 1 trade agreement between US and China on Wednesday. Some positive economic data in new home start, factory activity and jobless claims also push the stocks higher. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3329 up 1.97%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.82% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.29%.

Defying the gravity, S&P 500 continued to advance higher and is currently 8.0% above its 28 week moving average. As the deviation is more than the historical norm, we should be cautious and react quickly to market pullback.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/10/2020

Investors flocked to big name tech company stocks and pushed the major indices higher as middle east conflict stabilized. Nasdaq composite outperformed the S&P 500 index while small cap stock index, Russell 2000, recorded small loss. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3265 up 0.94%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.66% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.75%.

After an indecision week, S&P 500 index made up the its mind and decide to heading higher. From the past examples, the index will continue marching higher for another few weeks. However, S&P 500 index is 6.6% above its 28 week moving average, and caution is warranted as the inevitable pull back will be fast and intensive.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/3/2020

Stocks started strong but ended up mostly flat over this holiday-shorten trading week. Investors were encouraged of the phase one trade agreement between US and China at the beginning of the week but worries of war escalated on Friday after U.S. airstrike on Iranian military leader. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3234 down 0.16%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.04% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.16%.

S&P 500 index exhibits an indecision candle stick pattern with a small body and long wicks on both end this week in the weekly chart . The price action of S&P 500 index next week should tell us where the index is heading. However, the probability of a pull back outweighs the uptrend as this rally has been 13 weeks long and the index is 6.1% above its weekly trend line.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index