YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: May 2020

Fund Rankings Update, 5/29/2020

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy IBB.

Positive sentiment about gradual reopening of the economy drove stock markets higher for another week with financial and industrial sectors outperformed other sectors. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.0% to 3044, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.75% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increase 1.77%.

S&P 500 index closed solidly above its 28 week moving average this past week. The 28 week EMA currently at 2941, has turned from a intermediate trend resistance to a intermediate trend support. As discussed last week, the index appears to resume its long term uptrend trajectory. We will be looking for buying opportunity when the index pulled back to test its trend line support.

A trading signal in ETF model portfolio was issued this week to buy into bio tech index, IBB, as market sentiment has turned bullish and bio tech related sectors have seen strong momentum due to optimism about the development of Codv-19 vaccines.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/22/2020

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy FDGRX.

Optimism about new round of economic stimulus from the Fed and the encouraging results of vaccine trial from Moderna Therapeutics pushed stocks higher. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, and small cap and mid cap stocks outperformed large cap stocks. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.2% to 2955, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.29% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increase 3.44%.

After failing to defeat the 28 EMA for the past three weeks, S&P 500 index finally closed the week at 2955 above its resistance of 2934. As the index breaks above its resistance, we will change our bearish bias position into a cautious bullish position if the index can stay above the resistance for another week for confirmation. Looking back at the recovery in early 2019, S&P 500 index close above the resistance at the end of January and consolidate above the resistance the following week. The index then marched upward for 12 weeks before pulling back to test its the trend resistance. Once the uptrend is established, look for pull back to support level for buying opportunities. Again keep your trading size mall to reduce risk in this volatile market environments.

SSPP model portfolio changed its position from cash to growth company fund, FDGRX this week after FEMKX timing system turned bullish last week, Four of our eight model portfolios have moved to more aggressive positions as overall markets recovers from the sharp sell-off in February and March.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/15/2020

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy FSPHX.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.

Stocks declined for the week as Fed Chair warned of lasting damage and significant downside risk to the economy due to the corona virus pandemics. Worries about resurgence of US-China trade war also dampened investors' sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.3% to 2863, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.65% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decrease 1.17%.

S&P 500 index failed to close above its 28 week EMA resistance for the second week and completed the first leg of "W" bottom formation in the weekly chart. Only time will tell if we will get a "V" shape bottom or "W" shape bottom. The longer the index stays below the 28 week EMA the more likely it will be a "W" shape recovery just like what happened in October, 2019 - December , 2019 period. At that time, S&P 500 index struggled for 9 weeks failing to break above its 28 week EMA resistance and plunged lower before recovering.

Two trading signals were issued in the model portfolios this week. Following the trading pattern in sETF last week, SELECT model portfolio changed its position this week buying into health care sector fund, FSPHX. A trading signal also occurred in FEMKX timing system as its momentum indicator, STO[15,1], went up above 50. FEMKX timing system has been reliable in catching the intermediate market trend in the past and we will see how it pans out under this extreme market condition. As stock markets are still under escalated volatility, I would advise readers to trade in small sizes to reduce the risk.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Weekly chart of FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 5/8/2020

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy IBB.

Defying gravity, stocks continued to march higher as investors turned their attention to reopening the economy. Economic data showed the US economy has contracted at a record level with 3.2 million american filing for unemployment benefit in the previous week, and U.S. unemployment rate reaching 14.7% in April. Tech shares outperformed general markets while utilities and consumer staple lagged behind. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.5% to 2929, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.56% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increase 6.0%.

S&P 500 index closed the week right below the 28 week EMA. It will be interesting to see how the index behave under this strong resistance level next week. sETF model portfolio is changing its position to buy after holding cash for 56 days as Bio tech sector has been very strong due to the treatment and vaccine development for Covid-19.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/1/2020

Stocks went up early in the week with optimism about the treatment and vaccine for the Covid-19, however, investors sentiment went sour Thursday as data showed 3.8 million American filed for unemployment benefit, and March personal income and spending have fallen more than expected. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.2% to 2830, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.3%.

S&P 500 index reached 28 week exponential moving average on Wednesday and retreated Thursday and Friday. We have discussed about the strong resistance at 2935 level as it is where the 28 week EMA and the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement came together. While S&P 500 index posted its best monthly performance in April (up 12.9%) since 1987, May is a seasonally weaker month with the adage, "Sell in May and Go Away." The index has bounced back 26.6% from its March 23 low and I think it is due for a break to digest its lofty gain.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index