YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: April 2021

Fund Rankings Update, 4/23/2021

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEZ, Buy IAT

Stocks took a breather with major indices ended the week flat. Quarterly company earning reports and jobless claims during the week all indicated that the economy is transitioning back to post pandemic conditions. News about doubling the capital gain tax to fund President Biden's plan did rattle the investors' sentiment. However, stocks recovered some after investors' realization that with congress negotiation the increase won't be as high as what will be proposed. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.13% to 4180, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.46%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.25%.

Instead of parabolic rise, S&P 500 index went side way this past week giving the 28 week EMA time to catch up. It is the preferable price movement that we would like to see for sustainable advance. Our cautiously positive outlook remains the same as the index is still above its 28 week EMA and its momentum indicator still stay above 80.

A trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio this week to move from energy related IEZ to banking related IAT. This is consistent with the trading signal occurred last week for SELECT due to sector rotation. We have held IEZ for 126 days with gain of 7.38%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/16/2021

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSESX, Buy FSRBX

Stocks advanced higher for another week with S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching record highs while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index and the small cap Russel 2000 index stay a bit below their all time highs. Economic data for consumer spending, manufacturing activities and jobless claims released during the week all supported the positive investors sentiment, and the inflation data is tamed enough to temper the investors' anxiety for rising yields. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.37% to 4185, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.18%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.09%.

S&P 500 index continued to move higher and looks to be making a parabolic rise which we don't like to see. The index is 10.8% above its 28 week moving average and caution is warranted going forward. As this rally is driven by rebound in technology sectors and the NASDAQ composite index has not reached its previous high yet, we may still see the stocks going higher for another few weeks before some consolidation occur.

A trading signal occurs this week in SELECT model portfolio to move from energy service sector fund, FSESX to banking sector fund, FSRBX, due to sector rotation. We have held FSESX for only 46 days with a loss of 14.8% as the fund can not maintains its upward momentum.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/9/2021

Stocks advanced broadly higher boosted by the economic data that US has added more than 900K jobs in March, well above the expected 650K jobs. Big techs also came back in a big way with Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon all outperformed the market with more than 5% weekly gain. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.71% to 4128, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.95%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.12%.

S&P 500 index continued to advance to all time high after breaking the 4000 psychological barrier. As technology laden Nasdaq composite index is reversing its downtrend and heading higher, the S&P 500 index will be boosted and resume its uptrend. We expect the market will head higher but need to watch out for the parabolical rise.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/2/2021

Stocks advanced higher as the first quarter came to an end and the second quarter begins. S&P 500 index broke above the 4000 barrier and close at all time high of 4019. Investor sentiments were boosted by President Biden's two trillion infrastructure plan which will vastly increase spending on internet and transportation infrastructure as well as on research and development. Economic data released during the week also supported investors' optimism with consumer confidence index reaching record high and regional manufacturing indexes surprised economists on the upside. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.14% to 4019, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.24%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.6%.

S&P 500 index broke the 4000 psychological barrier and closed the week at 4019. As we discussed in the blog last week: Now that the Nasdaq composite index has found a support above its 28 week moving average and about to reverse its downward direction, the S&P 500 will complete its flat consolidation and resume its advance. Going forward, the best scenario is for the index to make small but steady advances with flat consolidations along the way, while the worst scenario is for the index to make hyperbolic jumps and crash down heavily. Regardless of how this is playing out, we just have to be patient and execute our trades according to the plan.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index