YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: July 2021

Fund Rankings Update, 7/30/2021

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks experienced higher volatility as companies including several tech giants reported their quarterly earnings during this busiest week of earning season. Major indices ended the week a tad lower after big gain last week. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.37% to 4395, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.36%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.11%.

The technical structure of S&P 500 index remains the same as it continued to march higher following the slope of its 28 week exponential moving average (EMA). With the slight decline this week, the index is 6.9% above its 28 EMA. Our view of market direction stays the same as last week: Without any foreseeable black swan event, we think the index will continue its current pattern moving higher with some fluctuation around its trend line.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/23/2021

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSESX, Buy FSCSX.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYE, Buy IYW.

Trading signal occurs in sEFT timing system: Sell IEO, Buy ICF.

Stocks declined sharply Monday as fear of the spread of delta COVID-19 variant prevailed. However, stocks climbed back the rest of the week to reach another record high encouraged by positive company earnings and higher existing home sales. Big tech stocks led the way for the fifth weeks while energy sectors lagged behind. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.96% to 4411, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.08%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.84%.

S&P 500 index continued to advance higher following its up-trending slope since November 2020. The index is 7.9% above its 28 week moving average and have been in this range for sometime. Although this deviation is greater than the historic norm, its price pattern has been very consistent without any large parabolic move. Without any foreseeable black swan event, we think the index will continue its current pattern moving higher with some fluctuation around its trend line.

The comeback of technology sectors and the weakness of energy sectors have triggered the trading signals in the past three weeks. Three trading signals were issued in the model portfolios this week. Together with the three signals last week and the one before, seven out of our eight model portfolios have changed their positions due to sector rotations. Hopefully the momentum of the tech sectors can have more staying power to keep the up trend longer to improve the performance of the model portfolios.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/16/2021

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWO, Buy EWZ.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell ARGFX, Buy FCNTX.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH.

Stocks ended the week lower in the quiet trading week. Small cap growth stocks further underperformed its large cap counterparts. This past week was the unofficial kick-off of the second quarter company earning reporting season. Additional trading volatility is expected in the next couple of weeks as usual. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.97% to 4327, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.52%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.87%.

From weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the index is still trending upwards following the slope of its 28 week EMA and the momentum is still at an elevated level. The second chart below shows the weekly price patter of FEMKX which saw its momentum falling sharply in the past two weeks and caused a sell trading signal in the FEMKX timing system. FEMKX behaves more like small cap growth index (e.g. Russel 2000 index) than the large cap S&P 500 index. We have seen this kind of divergent between S&P 500 index and FEMKX in 2018. At the time, S&P 500 index continued to march higher for 6 more months before plunging sharply while FEMKX slowly trended lower at the same time. With this FEMKX sell signal, caution is warranted and adjusting portfolio allocation to reduce risk level is recommended.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Weekly chart of FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 7/9/2021

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDVLX, Buy FRESX

Stocks edged up higher in this holiday shorten trading week. Large cap growth stocks outperformed small caps for the second weeks and the interest rate sensitive real estate sector led the gain as long term treasury yields fell sharply. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.4% to 4369, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.24%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.43%.

A trading signal was issued in SSPP model portfolio this week to sell FDVLX and buy into FRESX as real estate sector has been gaining momentum in the last three months and the value stocks loosing the steam. The model portfolio has held FDVLX for 123 days with a gain of 10%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/2/2021

Stocks advanced higher with S&P 500 index and NASDAQ composite making another record high. Economy data released during the week supported the positive sentiment with consumer confidence beating expectation and US economy added 850,000 jobs in June fare exceeded the 700,000 jobs expected. Within broader markets, large cap growth stocks outperformed small caps with tech and healthcare companies leading the way. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.67% to 4352, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.02%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.94%.

As observed in the weekly chart below, S&P 500 index has broken and stayed comfortably above its 4250 resistance level. Our positive view of the market direction since two weeks ago stays the same as the index looks to be heading toward 4500.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index