YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: October 2021

Fund Rankings Update, 10/29/2021

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks continued their advance with all major indices reaching all time high during the week. Investor sentiments were supported by progress on President Biden's social infrastructure spending plan in the congress and the slow down in 3rd quarter GDP which bring down the intermedia- and long-term U.S. treasury yields. Consumer discretionary sectors led the markets while energy sectors lagged. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.33% to 4605, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.7%.

S&P 500 reached all time high and closed the week above 4600. The index has rebounded back from its 28 week EMA to its pre-September upward trajectory. We think the index will follow the trajectory going higher but need to remain vigilant about any future parabolic move.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/22/2021

Boosted by positive earning surprise, stocks continued to march higher. Utilities, health care and real estate sectors led the markets while communication and energy sectors lagged. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.64% to 4544, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.08%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.29%.

S&P 500 made the record high during the week but closed the week one point lower. As mentioned in our last blog that we expect the index to reach all time high if it can hold the 4500 level. For the next few weeks, we think the index will resume its up trend with rising momentum.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/15/2021

Stocks continued its rebound boosted by positive economic data and strong earnings from banking sectors. Consumer price went up 4% year over year at the end of September and Producer price index went up 0.5% in September indicating the peak of inflation might be over. Weekly jobless claim fell to 293000, a pandemic low and the September retail sales surprised the economists on the upside with 0.7% increase. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.82% to 4471, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.58%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.18%.

S&P 500 attempted to resume its uptrend and closed the week strongly above its 28 week EMA and the high of last week. Its daily momentum is heading upwards, and the daily MACD has shown a golden cross pattern. If the index can hold above 4500 next week, there is a great chance that it will advance further to make record high. The price action of S&P 500 index is very similar to what it had in the same period of time last year. It consolidated for two months in September and October, and broke out to resume its uptrend in November. We will see how the index performs in the next two weeks before November comes.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Daily chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/8/2021

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSCSX, Buy FSNGX

Major stock indices went up this week recovering some of their loss from the previous week. Worries about U.S. debt ceiling at the beginning of the week subsided as Republicans and Democrats in the congress reached an agreement for temporarily lift the limit until December late in the week. Energy sectors outperformed the markets as natural gas prices reached record high in Europe. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.79% to 4391, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.22%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.09%.

S&P 500 index bounced off its 28 week EMA for the third week as seen in the weekly chart below. The momentum indicator of the index has fallen below the over bought region and heading downward. If the index can stay above its trend line, there is a good chance that it will get back to its uptrend from here. We will see how the price action develops next week.

A trading signal occurs in the SELECT model portfolio to sell FSCSX and buy the currently number one ranked fund, FSNGX as the rising interest rates continue to weaken the tech sectors, and natural gas prices rose due to seasonality effect. Please see rankings tables and trading logs for more detail.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/01/2021

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ICF, Buy IGV

Fears about rising interest rates and Fed's tapering of its asset purchasing before the end of year, pushed the stocks downward. Interest rate sensitive technology sectors suffered the most with NASDAQ composite index leading the decline among the major indices. September turns out to be the worst month since the beginning of the pandemic with S&P 500 index lost 4.8%, and lives up to its reputation as the weakest month of the year. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.21% to 4451, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.36%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.2%.

S&P 500 index touched and bounced off its 28 week EMA the second week as seen in the weekly chart below. The momentum indicator of the index has fallen below the over bought region and heading downward, however, the index still stays above the trend line holding the up trend intact. Our outlook remain the same that we expect a couple more weeks of side way consolidation and a continuation of the up trend afterwards if the index mange to stay above the trend line.

A trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio to sell ICF and buy the currently number one ranked fund, IGV as the rising interest pushed down the momentum ranking of realty index fund, ICF. Please see rankings tables and trading logs for more detail.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index