YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: August 2022

Fund Rankings Update, 8/26/2022

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks plunged on the last trading day of the week after FED chair, Jerome Powell made a hawkish comment about its aggressive interest rate policy to slow down the inflation at Kansas City FED's annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Economy data released last week were mixed with July home sales fell for the sixth month while weekly job less claims continue to decline and the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment went up unexpectedly. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 4.4% to 4057, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.22%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.44%.

4200 level turned out to be a very strong resistance level. S&P 500 held above 4200 for only one week then experienced a sharp retreat closing below its 28 week EMA for the week. The price action of the index in the next couple weeks are critical in determining the direction of the index. The upward momentum can be sustained if the index can quickly rebound from the sharp decline this week and climb back above it trend line, otherwise, we may see the index fell toward its previous low around 3600.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/19/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDRXX, Buy FIUIX

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy CLSPX

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks gave up some of the gains from last week. Economy data showed that industrial production and and retail sales in July were surprisingly strong. Weekly jobless claims also defied the expectation and going lower. While the strong data gave hopes to investors for avoiding recession, it also fueled the fear for FED's continuation of its high rate policy. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.21% to 4228, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.16%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.26%.

S&P 500 consolidated this week and is in the process of testing its 4200 and 28 week EMA support levels. As the index remains above its trend line, there is a very good chance for continuation of the up-trend after the consolidation.

Three trading signals were issued this week in SSPP, HSA and FEMKX model portfolios to move out of the cash positions. The FEMKX timing model, as discussed last week, has issued a buy signal with its momentum indicator climbing above the threshold of 50. FEMKX timing model has been a every robust indicator for market direction. It will be interesting to see how it performs this time.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/12/2022

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FDRXX, Buy FBIOX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy IBB

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IHE, Buy IBB

Stocks marched higher as July inflation data came in lower than expected. Headline inflation went up 8.5 % lower than the 8.7% expected, and core inflation rate was flat in July also below estimation. While investors cheered slower inflation, Fed still stressed the need to tame the inflation and keep the rate high. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.26% to 4280, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.92%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.08%.

S&P 500 broke above its 4200 resistance and closed well above its trend line. As discussed in the blog last week, the index may consolidate or retest the trend line support in the next few weeks and continue to advance higher with rising momentum.

With the strong rally in the last few weeks, SELECT, ETF, and sETF model portfolios have issued trading signals this week to move from sideline positions to Bio tech related sector funds. The STO[15,1] momentum indicator of FEMKX is at 49, one short of triggering a buy signal. The FEMKX timing model has been a every robust indicator for market direction. We will see if a buy signal will be issued from FEMKX timing system next week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/5/2022

Stocks closed the week mixed as job data showed U.S. created 528K jobs in July more than double the expectation. Investors were relief about the state of economy on one hand but worried about FED's keeping its aggressive stance on interest rate on the other. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.36% to 4145, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.13%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.15%.

S&P 500 broke above its 28 week EMA this week after staying below the trend line for more than four months with momentum indicator STO [15,1] above 50 and rising. In the next few weeks, we expect the index to continue marching higher gaining more footing above the trend line and consolidate around 4200 level before another upward push.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index