YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: October 2022

Fund Rankings Update, 10/28/2022

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IDU, Buy IYE

Stocks went up sharply for another week with help from positive earning reports from energy and industrial sectors. Investor sentiments were also helped by hope that FED will slow down its pace in hiking interest rates to avoid global economy instability. Tech sector under performed the general market as big tech companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Facebook announced steep declined in earnings and weaker financial outlooks . For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.95% to 3901, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.72%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.24%.

With the big weekly advance, the S&P 500 index is approaching its 28 week moving average as observed in the weekly chart below. Its momentum indicator also rose sharply to the middle at 49. However, the index is still making lower lows, lower highs pattern. We need to wait for the index to close above its trend line and forming a higher lows, higher highs pattern to confirm the trend reversal.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/21/2022

Trading signal occurs in Select model portfolio: Sell FBIOX, Buy FSENX

Stocks rebounded strongly from its 3600 level with positive third quarter earning reports from major companies. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 4.74% to 3752, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.89%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 5.22%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/14/2022

Stocks were mostly lower as volatility continued with the third quarter earnings report season started and worries from persistent high inflation data released during the week. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.55% to 3583, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.15%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.11%.

S&P 500 index fell to 3491 Thursday and staged a strong comeback surging 5.5 % to closed the day at 3670. However, with the current weak market sentiment, the index could not hold its gain and closed at 3583 the next day after giving back most of its advance. From the weekly chart below, S&P 500 index is still trying to hold on to its support around 3600, which is a difficult task under such extreme negative sentiment and momentum. For the tide to turn, we need to see the inflation coming down and the Fed slowing down its pace to hike the interest rate.

Weekly chart of S$P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/7/2022

Stocks started the week with a strong 2 day rebound from its 3600 support, but the rally faded after OPEC+ announcing production cut of 2 million barrel oil a day on Wednesday. The announcement coupled with the positive job report on Friday caused the index to give up most of its gain as investors worried that the economy is not slow enough to bring the inflation down. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.51% to 3639, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.99%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased only 0.73%.

S&P 500 index rebounded strongly from its 3600 support to the high of 3800 in the first two days of the week, however, the selling pressure and negative sentiment weighed in and the index closed at 3639 only a tad above the support level. The index is well below its 28 week exponential moving average and its momentum indicator is at an extremely oversold level. As discussed previously, the index very likely will fall to 3200 level if it can not hold the 3600 level with such low momentum.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/30/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIUIX, Buy FDRXX.

Stocks declined again for the third week as economic data showing continuous inflationary pressure despite Fed's interest rate hikes. Weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level since April while the ccore (less food and energy) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose to 4.7% well above the expected 4.4%. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.91% to 3585, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.92%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.69%.

S&P 500 index fell below its previous low of 3636 and closed the week below the 3600 support level as we have discussed last week. Looking down, the next support is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 3500 which is close to where we are now, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 3200. To get a rebound or trend reversal, we need to see inflation receding and Fed slowing the pace of its interest rate hike, which may take a longer time than investors' expectation though.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index