YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: December 2023

Fund Rankings Update, 12/29/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks closed the final trading week of the year with a modest gain despite muted economic data. A sharp decline in the index of Mid-Atlantic manufacturing activity on Wednesday indicated the fastest pace of contraction since February, while an unexpected rise in the weekly jobless claims on Friday added a note of caution. Nevertheless, the major indices finished mostly positive: the S&P 500 edged up 0.32% to 4769, the Dow Jones rose 0.81%, and the Nasdaq inched 0.12% higher.

The S&P 500 capped the week with another round of sideways trading, lingering near its all-time high for the second consecutive week. Notably, the index remains elevated, sitting 7.2% above its 28-week moving average, which typically fluctuates within a 5-6% range. This deviation suggests underlying strength, but we anticipate a potential pullback before the index makes another attempt at challenging its record peak in early 2024.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/22/2023

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy FBGRX

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell MLAIX, Buy VFTAX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSPCX, Buy FSRBX

Stocks continued to advance higher with Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 index making record highs. Inflation data released on Friday also bolstered the investors' optimism about rate cuts next year: the Commerce Department reported that the core (less food and energy) personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index, rose only 0.1% in November, and the headline PCE index (with food and energy) fell 0.1% in November, marking its first decline in 21 months. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 0.75% to 4754, Dow Jones climbed 0.22% and the Nasdaq advanced 1.21%.

The S&P 500 took a breather and consolidated sideways this week after a strong advancement the week before. The index is 64 points (1.34%) shy of its record high of 4818. It will be interesting to see if the index can reach an all-time high with 4 trading days left for the year.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/15/2023

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IAK, Buy ITB

Bullish sentiment propelled stocks higher this week, fueled by anticipation of rate cuts next year. The Fed's hint at three rate cuts in 2024, coupled with unexpectedly strong November retail data, painted a picture of a resilient economy and a potential soft landing. The S&P 500 soared 2.49%, Dow Jones climbed 2.92% and Nasdaq advanced 2.89%.

After three weeks of hovering near 4600, the S&P 500 finally punched through, closing above 4700 on a surge of momentum. This strong run has fueled speculation that the all-time high of 4818 might be within grasp by year-end. However, a word of caution: at 7.2% above its 28-week exponential moving average, the index is stretching beyond its typical 5-6% range. While further gains are possible, this parabolic move suggests proceeding with prudence.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/8/2023

Stocks closed flat to mildly higher this week, buoyed by unexpectedly positive economic data. Friday's jobs report revealed the US added 199,000 jobs in November, significantly exceeding expectations of 180,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate decreased to 3.7% from 3.9% in October, further highlighting the economy's strength. Consumer sentiment also surged, with the University of Michigan's preliminary December gauge jumping to 69.4, exceeding expectations of 62.4, likely fueled by easing inflation concerns. These positive developments contributed to modest weekly gains, with the S&P 500 rising 0.21% to 4604, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.01%, and the Nasdaq composite advancing 0.69%.

The S&P 500 index moved sideways to let its 28-week exponential moving average catch us as shown in the weekly chart below. It has reached and closed above the 4600 resistance level with strong momentum. As discussed in the previous blog, we expect the index to resume its upward trajectory after this short-term consolidation.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/1/2023

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYE, Buy IGV.

Stocks moved higher this week as falling treasury yields boosted investor sentiments. Economy data showed the inflation is subsiding and the economy is slowing down. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 0.2% in October, a slowdown from September. Weekly jobless claims ticked down, but continuing claims jumped much more than expected to 1.93 million, their highest level since November 2021. For the week, the S&P 500 index climbed 0.77% to 4594, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.42%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index increased by 0.38%.

The S&P 500 index maintained its upward momentum, inching closer to the 4600 resistance level, which is currently just six points away. Over the next few weeks, we anticipate a period of sideways consolidation, with a positive bias.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index