YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: February 2024

Fund Rankings Update, 2/23/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks surged ahead on the back of the strong earning reports from the AI chipmaker, NVIDIA. On the economic data front, the initial jobless claims came in below expectation and S&P Global's purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) rose respectively to 51.5, the highest in 17 months. The tight labor market and the strength of the economy have prompted the FED to take a wait-and-see stance in cutting interest rates. For the week, the S&P 500 index advanced 1.66% to 5088. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.3%, and the Nasdaq went up 1.4%.

The S&P 500 index continued to rally higher after taking a short pause last week. The deviation to its 28-week exponential moving average has grown back to 9.2%. As the index continues to make new highs, it is difficult to estimate where the next resistance level will be. Applying Fibonacci retracement suggests a potential resistance level at 5164. However, uncertainty remains in the market's future trajectory.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/16/2024

Stocks went sideway as higher than expected consumer price index released on Tuesday weighed on investors' sentiments. The January CPI went up 0.3% higher than the 0.2% expected by economists and the core CPI went up 0.4% in January making it 3.9% year-over-year, far above the Fed's 2% target. The high inflation data have dashed investors' hope for a rate cut in March. For the week, the S&P 500 index retreated 0.42% to 5005. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.11%, and the Nasdaq went down 1.34%.

The S&P 500 index took a break this week after surging 5 consecutive weeks. The index dipped 0.42% below last week's close but still closed above the 5000 mark. This consolidation has helped narrow the gap between the index and its 28-week exponential moving average, from 9.3% to 8.2%. As the index still possesses extremely high momentum, we hope the index to continue its sideway consolidation to bring the deviation back to the historical norm and then make the next leg up, instead of a quick and deep pullback to its trend line.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/9/2024

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSRBX, Buy FSELX.

Stocks advanced higher again with the S&P 500 index reaching above the psychological target of 5000. This week was relatively quiet in terms of economic news. The January ISM service index released on Monday and the weekly jobless claims releases on Thursday all met the expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 index advanced 1.37% to 5026. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.04%, and the Nasdaq went up 2.31%.

The S&P 500 index has reached above its 5000 psychological price target. The deviation from its 28-week exponential moving average is at 9.3%. As the index continues to move higher and the deviation from its trend line grows larger, we are taking a cautious outlook going forward. We do not know when the pullback or correction will come but when it comes it will be severe and swift.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/2/2024

Stocks continued to march higher amid the busiest week of company earning reports. The advance was narrowly focused on a handful of companies though. Microsoft, Google, and AMD saw their stock prices get hammered after weak guidance while Amazon and Meta saw their stock prices rocket higher after strong performances. On Wednesday, the FED left the interest rate unchanged as expected in its policy meeting. However, the FED chair stated that it is unlikely to lower the interest rate in March during his post meeting conference. His views were reinforced after the report released Friday that the US added 353,000 jobs in January significantly higher than the 185,000 expected. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.38%, closing at 4958. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.43%, and the Nasdaq went up 1.12%.

The S&P 500 index continued to march toward the 5000 psychological price target. Its deviation from the 28-week exponential moving average has reached 8.5%. We have signaled our caution in the last couple of blogs as the price will eventually come back to meet its trendline. Portfolio asset rebalance to take some profit and reduce risk should be a wise move at this juncture.

The weekly chart of the S$P 500 index