Fund Rankings Update, 8/15/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks continued their advance, largely driven by investors' hope for a September rate cut from the Fed. The rising hope was due the favorable CPI report that showed the inflation cooled modestly in July, with month-over-month inflation dropping to 0.2% from June’s reading of 0.3%,   For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 0.94% to close at 6449, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.74%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.81%.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 8/8/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks rebounded from last week's sell-off, with tech sectors leading the way.  Markets were muted on the global tariffs taking effect on Thursday, but were motivated by the increasing likelihood of a rate cut from the Fed in September.  On the economic data front, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM's) services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 50.1% well below the expected 51.3%, indicating a slowdown in the service sectors.  On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that the jobless claims rose from 219000 to 226000 for the week ended on August 2.  For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 2.43% to close at 6389, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.87%. 

The S&P 500 index consolidated this week, trading sideways within the previous week's range. The index managed to reclaim the 6300 level, but is still struggling to break through the 6400 resistance. Before a breakout above 6400 can occur, a short-term pullback is a real possibility. A drop below the 6200 support level could send the index down to 6000, so caution is advised.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/1/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks declined for the week, driven by negative sentiment from renewed tariff concerns and disappointing economic data.  In addition, the Fed is keeping the interest rates unchanged after concluding its July meeting.  This disappointed investors who were hoping for a rate cut in September, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued his "wait-and-see" approach.  Inflation data released Wednesday showed that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.3% in June, accelerating from 0.2% in May. Year over year, prices increased 2.8%, further away from the Fed's 2.0% target.  On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, which was significantly lower than expected.  For the week, the S&P 500 lost 2.36% to close at 6238, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.92%, and the Nasdaq Composite retreated 2.17%. 

The S&P 500 index experienced a severe rejection at the 6400 resistance level.  The index started the week with a record close at 6427 but quickly yielded under consistent selling pressure.  At the end of the week, the index formed a weekly outside bar candlestick pattern signaling increased volatility. The short-term technical picture has turned from bullish to a neutral-to-bearish outlook. The most probable trajectory for the next two weeks is a period of continued consolidation or a deeper correction to retest the 50-day moving average at 6150 and even the 28-week exponential moving average at around 6000. On the upside, it is unlikely for the index to rebound to a new all-time high immediately after such a steep decline.  A convincing rebound would require the index to reclaim the 6300 level, but for now, caution is warranted. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/25/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the HSA model portfolio: Sell RIGGX, Buy MLAIX

Stocks picked up steam to march higher with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index both achieving new all-time highs.  Positive sentiments were supported by the announcement of trade deals with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.46% to close at 6388, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.02%. 

The S&P 500 index has decisively broken its three-week consolidation pattern, surging to yet another record high. With strong positive momentum, the index appears poised to continue its upward trajectory, setting its sights on the 6500 target.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/18/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIEUX, Buy FTRNX

Trading signal occurs in the ETF model portfolio: Sell EWW Buy IYW

This week, the stock market saw mixed performance, though positive momentum continued for many. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes both achieved new all-time highs. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight dip. Driving the positive sentiment were robust quarterly earnings reports from major banks and generally favorable economic data. While inflation did accelerate, it aligned with market expectations. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in June, up from 0.1% in May. Annually, the CPI increased to 2.7% from 2.4% in May. Additionally, retail sales showed stronger-than-expected growth, climbing 0.6% in June after a 0.9% contraction in May. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.59% to close at 6296, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.51%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.07%.

The S&P 500 continued its upward trajectory last week, closing at another all-time high, largely propelled by the robust performance of large-cap and technology sectors. While the underlying uptrend and strong momentum remain intact, the index appears to be in a sideways consolidation phase. This pause is likely allowing its 28-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to catch up. Once this consolidation concludes, the S&P 500 is expected to resume its upward path.

 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/11/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks largely moved sideways with a negative tilt this week as President Trump announced several new country-specific tariffs. Brazil faced a substantial 50% tariff, while Canada was hit with 35%. Japan and South Korea each received 25% tariffs, and other Southeast Asian nations were subject to varying levels of levies. With the July 9th deadline for the reciprocal tariff pause now expired, markets anticipate more country-specific tariffs in the coming weeks. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.31% to 6257.9, the Dow Jones shed 1.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 0.08%.

The S&P 500 took a breather this week, essentially closing where it began. This period of sideways consolidation suggests a healthy digestion of recent gains rather than a fundamental shift in market sentiment. Crucially, the index remains well above its 28-week exponential moving average (EMA), signaling that its strong underlying momentum and clear uptrend are still intact. With these technical indicators aligning, the S&P 500 appears to be on track to march toward our 6500 Fibonacci target.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/4/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks continued to advance higher with the S&P 500 index and the NASDAQ reaching another all-time high.  Positive investor sentiments were supported by the passage of the Trump administration's budget bill and the announcement of the trade deal with Vietnam. On the economic data front, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1%, both better than expected. The activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for another month, albeit at a slower rate, with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM's) manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) coming in at 49.1%.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.72% to 6279, the Dow Jones gained 2.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.62%.

The S&P 500 continued its upward trajectory, pushing past the 6200 psychological resistance and closing the shortened trading week at a new record high of 6279 on Thursday. With the clear prevailing uptrend and sustained momentum, the index appears poised to extend its gains further. Given the recent breakout to new highs and the overall bullish sentiment, the index could see further incremental gains, potentially heading towards the 6500 Fibonacci target. However, traders should be mindful of potential short-term pullbacks, especially given the rapid ascent. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 6/27/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

The S&P 500 advanced to a new high as tension deescalated in the Middle East and dovish comments about interest rates from from several Fedderal Reserves members. Data showed inflation ticked modestly higher in May. Economic data released during the week showed the inflation is tamed while economy is growing at a slower rate.  The core personal consumption expenditures ( Core PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.2% month over month and 2.7% year over year in May, slightly ahead of consensus estimates.  The Flash U.S. Composite Output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released Monday came in at 52.8, down slightly from May’s reading of 53.0, indicating that the US economy continued to grow at the end of the second quarter.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 3.44% to 6173, the Dow Jones gained 3.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 4.25%.

The S&P 500 exhibited a strong bullish performance this week, reaching a new all-time high of 6173 on Friday.  This upward trajectory indicates robust buying pressure and a clear continuation of the overarching uptrend. For the next couple of weeks, the technical outlook remains to the upside, with the immediate target being the next psychological level of 6200. While a minor pullback or consolidation could occur to digest these gains, any such dips are likely to be met with strong buying interest, as long as key support levels, such as the 10-day EMA and the 6100 former resistance (now support), hold firm. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 6/20/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

The S&P 500 closed almost flat this week as tension escalating in the Middle East.  All eyes were on the interest rate decision from the Fed policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed leaves the the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5% while expects to make two interest rate cuts through the remainder of the year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller made comments suggesting the central bank could cut rates in July in an interview Friday morning, which boosted investor sentiment early in the day.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.15% to 5967, the Dow Jones gained 0.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.21%.

The S&P 500 declined a bit closing the week below its 10-day EMA but holding above its 20-day EMA. The failure to reclaim the psychological 6000 level and testing its 20-day EMA suggest a short-term pause or minor pullback from its recent ascent while the index remains in a broader uptrend, holding above its 28-week EMA.  As discussed in the last blog, should the 20-day EMA (currently at 5948) fail to hold as support, the index could fall to its 28-week EMA at 5773. Conversely, if the index manages to stay above 5948, we could anticipate it to break its previous high of 6147.  The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the broader uptrend reasserts itself.

 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/13/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed modestly lower, as the news that Israel conducted a preemptive air attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders sank the investors' sentiment and turned the positive markets negative on the last trading day of the week.   All eyes were on the inflation data last week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% month over month, down from 0.2% in April, and prices rose 2.4% yearly, up from April’s  2.3%, but below the expectation for a 2.5% increase. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.8% yearly, unchanged from April and a tick below the estimate for a 2.9% increase. The cooler-than-expected inflation data had driven down the Treasury yields and provided support to investors' sentiment early in the week. The S&P 500 fell 0.39% to close at 5976, the Dow Jones lost 1.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 0.63% for the week.

The S&P 500 closed the week at 5976, pulling back from the psychological resistance level of 6000. Despite this retreat, the overall uptrend remains intact, with the index holding above its 28-week exponential moving average (EMA) and maintaining strong underlying momentum. In the short term, however, we might see some weakness. The index broke below its 10-day EMA on Friday and appears to be testing the 20-day EMA, which is currently around 5927. Should the 20-day EMA fail to hold as support, the index could fall to its 28-week EMA at 5760. Conversely, if the index manages to stay above 5927, we could anticipate it breaking its previous high of 6147. The coming week will be crucial in determining whether short-term weakness prevails or if the broader uptrend reasserts itself.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/6/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks advanced higher, with the technology sector and small-cap stocks outperforming the broader market.   Investors' sentiment was boosted by positive earnings from AI-related companies and employment data.  Job data reported by the Labor Department showed the US added 139,000 jobs in May, down from 147,000 in April but better than the 130,000 expected.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.5% to close at 6000, the Dow Jones gained 1.17%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 2.18%.

The S&P 500 index broke out from the consolidation pattern in the last three weeks and closed above both the previous high of 5968 and the psychological resistance of 6000. As discussed in the last blog, the index has not only broken the high of last week's inside bar but also the previous high with strong momentum. This bullish development indicates that the index is marching toward a new all-time high.   

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/30/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSTCX, Buy FSDAX.

Trading signal occurs in the ETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy EWW.

Stocks closed modestly higher as investors grappled with uncertainty surrounding the enforcement of President Trump's tariff policy. This confusion stemmed from a ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade and the administration's subsequent appeal.  On the economic front, consumers received some good news as inflation eased in April. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation gauge, rose by 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.7% in March. Adding to the positive sentiment, the Consumer Confidence Index saw a significant jump in May, climbing 12.3 points to 98. Separately, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment remained flat in April, putting an end to four consecutive months of steep declines.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.88% to close at 5911, the Dow Jones gained 1.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 2.01%.

The S&P 500 index formed an inside bar candle stick pattern this week above its 28-week exponential moving average with strong momentum.   The underlying bullish trend remains intact as the index has consolidated side way for three weeks above its critical support level following the recent sharp rebound. The current technical setup leans towards continued strength after this period of consolidation.  A breakout above the high of this week's inside bar and subsequently the previous high of 5968 would signal renewed bullish momentum and potentially lead to a new all-time high.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/23/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell IYK, Buy ITA

Stocks took a breather after a big surge last week.  Investors' sentiment was weighed on as the yields of US treasuries shot up after a downgrade from the credit agency Moody at the end of the prior week. President Trump's announcement to slap a 50% tariff on goods from the EU also added to the slide of the stock market. The S&P 500 lost 2.61% to close at 5802, the Dow Jones fell 2.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 2.47% for the week.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/16/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the HSA model portfolio: Sell PCRIX, Buy RIGGX.

Stocks surged this week, fueled by news of a 90-day tariff rollback agreement between the U.S. and China.  Adding to the positive sentiment, the BLS reported lower-than-expected April inflation, with core CPI at 0.2% and CPI rising 2.3% year-over-year. The PPI also unexpectedly declined, raising investor hopes for a more accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy. Consequently, the S&P 500 soared 5.277% to close at 5958, the Dow Jones gained 3.41%, and the Nasdaq Composite leaped 7.15% for the week.

The S&P 500 index shot up and closed well above its 28-week exponential moving average with strong momentum, signaling the resumption of its uptrend.  With the upward and strong momentum, the index may continue its advance with the resistance levels at 6000 (the psychological resistance) and 6150 (the previous high). However, the index has rebounded more than a thousand points in a short six-week period and may be due for a pullback to digest its lofty gains.  Should a pullback occur, the support level to watch is the 28-week exponential moving average at  5703.  Continue monitoring support and resistance levels will be crucial in determining the index's next direction. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

 

Fund Rankings Update, 5/9/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks took a breather this week, with major indices closing the week flat. Signs of the trade de-escalation emerged as US and Chinese representatives plan to meet in Switzerland this weekend for trade discussions. On Thursday, the Trump administration also announced the first trade deal under "reciprocal tariffs" with the United Kingdom, signaling more deals will come.  On Wednesday, the Fed announced that it will keep the interest rate steady and continue its wait-and-see attitude, citing the uncertainty of the economic outlook from higher tariffs.    For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.47% to close at 5659, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite notched down 0.27%.

The S&P 500 index ended the past week marginally lower, settling beneath its critical 28-week exponential moving average at 5684 and forming an indecisive weekly candle.  The behavior of the index is being closely monitored as a breakout and hold above this critical EMA would signal a resumption of the uptrend, whereas a failure to overcome it could precipitate a sharp downward move.   

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/2/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42626, Buy 05069.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.

Fueled by ongoing trade war de-escalation and strong tech earnings, major indices climbed for a second consecutive week. Despite a 0.3% contraction in Q1 US GDP—the first since 2022, driven by decreased consumer and government spending—the economy showed resilience with April's robust job growth of 177,000, exceeding the anticipated 135,000. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2.92% to close at 5686, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 3.42%.

Having closed the week at 5686, the S&P 500 finds itself precisely at its critical 28-week exponential moving average. As previously highlighted, this level represents a significant resistance point that will likely dictate the index's near-term trajectory. Notably, the S&P 500 experienced rejection at this same EMA during the week of March 24th. Looking ahead to the next couple of weeks, a decisive break and sustained trading above 5686 could signal the end of the recent bearish pullback and the potential resumption of a bullish trend. Conversely, another rejection at this EMA could lead to a downward move, with a potential retest of the 5000 support level. The behavior of the index around this key moving average will be closely monitored over the coming two weeks for directional clues.   

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/25/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Major indices advanced higher as news of de-escalation of trade tension between US and China were reported, along with likely trading agreements with other countries.  President Trump's clarification of not firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell also provided support to investors' positive sentiment.   For the week, the S&P 500 jumped 4.59%, closing at 5525, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.48%, and the Nasdaq Composite shot up 6.73%.

The S&P 500 index began the week with a decline but found its footing at the round-number 5100 support level, staging a strong four-day rally. The index closed at 5525, slightly breaching the 5500 resistance mark. Should the S&P 500 maintain levels above 5500, the 28-week exponential moving average (EMA) at 5686 emerges as the next resistance. It's worth noting that the index already faced rejection once at this EMA during the week of March 24, as seen on the weekly chart. Given that the S&P 500 remains below this significant EMA, our outlook remains bearish, anticipating a potential rejection at the EMA and a subsequent retest of the previous low around 5000.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 4/17/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell IXG, Buy IYK

Trading signal occurs in the iETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy EWP

Major indices closed the holiday-shortened week lower as tariff concerns lingered. President Trump escalated the trade war with China by increasing the tariffs to 245% on Chinese goods and adding new restrictions on AI chips exporting to China, which greatly impacted Nvidia and AMD.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, closing at 5282, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 2.66%, and the Nasdaq Composite gave up 2.62%.

Following a strong bounce, the S&P 500 has settled above the midpoint of its prior trading range. However, the index remains firmly within a bearish trend, trading considerably below its 28-week exponential moving average. Furthermore, its momentum indicator continues to register below the neutral 50 level. As we highlighted in last week's blog, it's wise to remain patient and await crucial buy signals, specifically a "W" bottom formation and a break above the EMA resistance. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 4/11/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed the volatile week higher as President Trump announced a pause of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days at the last minute on Wednesday to allow for negotiations.  However, the trade war with China escalated as China retaliated with 125% tariff on US goods against US's 145%.  The inflation data for March also provided comfort to investors. The core CPI rose 0.1% from February, the lowest in nine months.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 5.7%, closing at 5363, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 4.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 7.29%.

The S&P 500 experienced a sharp rebound after hitting a low of 4835, closing the week at 5363. This followed a two-stage decline from 6147 (first leg to 5504, second leg to 4835). The index's close above the key 5000 support level, along with its momentum indicator exiting oversold territory, suggests potential trading within the 5000-5500 range. Aligning with last week's analysis, a "W" bottom formation and a break above EMA resistance will be key signals for long-term buying opportunities.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Updatge, 4/4/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy FIEUX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBMPX, Buy FSTCX

Stocks closed sharply lower as President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs against the world on Wednesday.  The harsher-than-expected move triggered fears of retaliation from other countries, as well as higher inflation and economic recession.  While Wall Street is now looking for the Fed's help to counter the impact of tariffs by lowering the interest rates, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, still wants to wait for more clarity before adjusting the money policy.  For the week, the S&P 500 gave up 9.08%, closing at 5074, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 7.86%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 10.02%.

The S&P 500 index plunged Thursday and Friday after President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday, after the market closed.   In the weekly chart below, the index closed below its 28-week exponential moving average the week of March 3 and rebounded before reaching the low of 5504. The index tested the EMA resistance of 5787 during the rebound last week (week of March 24) and experienced severe rejection. The index then fell sharply lower after breaking the the previous low of 5504.  As investors quite oftern overreact to the panic selling, the index may continue to fall to the previous high support at 4600 if it can not hold the current 5000 pyshological support.  From past experience, it is better  to wait before taking trading action at this juncture: Wait for rebound and sell when the index receives rejection at EMA resistance, or wait for "W" shape bottom and breaking above EMA resistance to buy into the market.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/28/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy 42626

Stocks closed broadly lower on inflation and tariff concerns.  On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 25% levy on all non-U.S.-made automobiles, which rattled investors' confidence. Adding oil to the fire, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% in February, up from January’s reading of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, the core PCE rose 2.8%, remaining well above the Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2%.  The S&P 500 fell by 1.53% for the week, closing at 5580. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.96%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.59%. 

 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/21/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed higher snapping a multi-week losing streak.  Investors were pleased with the Fed Chair's dovish tone about the impact of the tariffs and his view that most measures of longer-term expectations still remain consistent with the central bank’s 2% inflation target.  For the week, the S&P 500 increased by 0.51%, closing at 5667. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite went up 0.17%. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

  

Fund Rankings Update, 3/14/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the HSA model portfolio: Sell CSMUX, Buy PCRIX.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell IAI, Buy IXG

Stocks closed lower for the fourth week as tariff concern and fears of recession continue to weigh on investor sentiment.   The focus of the economic data this week was the CPI and PPI data released on Wednesday and Thursday.  Both indices showed the cooling of inflation in February but failed to sway the wait-and-see attitude toward the rate policy from the Fed.  For the week, the S&P 500 declined by 2.27%, closing at 5638. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost another 3.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.43%.   

After confirming the correction phase last week, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 5638, solidly below its 28-week exponential moving average of 5834.   The index has reached the first support region that we discussed last week.  With the deteriorating momentum, the index probably will not hold this level for long and is very likely to go down to the second support at 5200, which is a stronger support in our opinion. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/7/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Ongoing tariff concerns significantly impacted investor sentiment, leading to a third consecutive week of stock market declines. Trade policy uncertainties remained central, particularly following the implementation of 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on Chinese imports. Although the Trump administration later announced a series of exemptions, the resulting volatility and unpredictability negatively affected investor confidence.  For the week, the S&P 500 dropped by 3.1%, closing at 5,770. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a decrease of 2.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite experienced a substantial decline of 3.45%.   

The S&P 500's close at 5770 this week confirms an ongoing correction phase, as it dipped below both its 28-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 5848 and its previous low of 5773. While temporary relief rallies are possible, the index is now in a clear downtrend. Investors should closely monitor its behavior at key support and resistance levels. On the weekly chart, the first support level lies around 5600, followed by a stronger support near 5200. Conversely, the 28-week EMA, previously a support, now acts as the initial resistance at 5848, and the previous high around 6100 provides a stronger second resistance.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 2/28/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDEGX, Buy FCNTX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSLBX, Buy FBMPXX

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWS, Buy FXI

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKXS, Buy Cash

Most stocks declined over the week, with the tech stocks experiencing the most loss. Ongoing concerns about tariffs and slowing economic growth continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Economic data further fueled these concerns, with jobless claims rising by 22,000 to 242,000—the highest level since October 2024—and consumer confidence dropping seven points in February, the sharpest monthly decline in three years. The S&P 500 fell 0.98% for the week, closing at 5,954. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.95%, while the Nasdaq composite index plummeted by 3.47%.    

The S&P 500 tested the 5850 trend line support this week, rebounding to close at 5954, above the 28-week exponential moving average.  Maintaining this trend line support is critical.  As previously noted, the index remains in a consolidation phase between 5850 and 6090.  A drop below 5850, particularly with a close below the prior low of 5773, would confirm a correction.  The index's performance in the coming week will be pivotal in determining its future trajectory.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/21/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGV, Buy FXI

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell ARGFX, Buy FCNTX

Stocks closed lower as President Trump announced his intention for additional 25% tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and chips.  Economic data suggesting a slowing economy further dampened investor confidence. The S&P Global flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached a 17-month low of 50.4, with the service PMI at 49.7 (readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below 50 signal contraction).  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.66%, closing at 6013. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq composite index both decreased by 2.51%.    

The S&P 500 pulled back below the 6090 resistance level after briefly reaching a record high of 6147. Crucially, the index failed to close above 6128, a level needed to confirm a continued uptrend.  The index remains in a sideways consolidation pattern, bounded by support at 5850 and resistance at 6090.  A breakout above the resistance or below the support will determine the index's future direction. 

The Weekly Chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/14/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed higher with growth stocks outperforming value stocks. Investors were relieved that President Trump did not immediately introduce the global reciprocal tariffs but signed an order to postpone it until April 1 after further study, which leaves room for country-by-country negotiations.  On the economic front, all eyes were on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Produce Price Index (PPI), which were released on Wednesday and Thursday.  The CPI came in 0.5% month over month in January and 3.0% year over year.  The PPI advanced 0.4% in January also higher than the expectation. The hotter-than-expected inflation data have prompted Fed Chair Jerome Powell to make the comment that the Fed will keep the policy restrive for longer to bring down the inflation in front of the Senate Banking Committee. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.47%, closing at 6114, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.55%,    and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index jumped 2.58%. 

The S&P 500 finished the week above the 6090 resistance level signaling an attempt to break out of its recent consolidation pattern on the weekly chart.  A confirmed breakout, and a continuation of the uptrend, would be signaled by a close above the previous high of 6128, completing a higher-high formation.  Current momentum suggests a positive outlook, and we remain bullish on the S&P 500's potential for further gains. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/7/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IYZ, Buy IAI

Stocks recovered from a large sell-off at the start of the week as President Trump's imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico received a postponement for 30 days.  Positive company earnings also helped investors' sentiment.  77% of the companies that have reported quarterly earnings so far have met or exceeded the expectations. Economic indicators presented a mixed picture. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) demonstrated growth in the manufacturing sector during January. However, job growth figures fell short of projections, raising concerns about a potential weakening in the labor market.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.24%, closing at 6025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went down 0.54%,    and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index declined 0.53%. 

The S&P 500 index is clearly in a side-way consolidation around 6000, as seen in the weekly chart. The long-term upward trend remains intact, with the index staying above its 28-week exponential average. However, it's important to note that the index is currently testing a resistance level around 6090. A successful break above this level could end the consolidation phase and pave the way for a renewed upward trend.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/31/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Major indices closed mixed this week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the only index to see gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both ended the week in the red.  Several factors influenced investor sentiment this week. Positive earnings reports from tech giants Meta and Apple provided some optimism, while in-line core inflation data suggested that the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation may be working. However, concerns about tariffs and the emergence of a lower-cost AI model from China led to a sell-off in tech stocks.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.0%, closing at 6040, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.27%, while the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index declined 1.64%. 

The S&P 500 pulled back from the key resistance level of 6100. This follows a significant recovery after a Deep Seek AI related sell-off earlier in the week, with the index now stabilizing around 6000.  As seen on the weekly chart, this period of consolidation has been ongoing for the past three months. With the index maintaining its upward trend and strong momentum, a breakout toward the 6220-6300 price range is expected once this consolidation phase concludes.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/24/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks closed higher as Wall Street celebrated President Trump's inauguration. Investors' sentiment was also helped by Trump's decision not to impose new tariffs on day one, as he promised during the campaign trail. Instead, he ordered federal agencies to review U.S. trade policies to determine the impact of potential future tariffs. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 1.74%, closing at 6101, a new record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.15%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index advanced 1.66%. 

The S&P 500 Index has made a new record high, which confirms the renewal of the upward trend. The weekly chart shows the higher high and higher low patterns. Given the high upward momentum, we expect the index to march higher toward the 6220-6300 level.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The weekly chart of the FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 1/17/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks rebounded from the sell-off at the end of last week and finished broadly higher with valued stocks outperforming growth stocks.  Optimism was supported by strong earnings reports from the financial sector as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all reported profit surges during the fourth quarter. Cooling inflation data also boosted investors' sentiment.  The Labor Department reported on Wednesday that the core CPI for December rose 0.2% month over month, lower than the expected 0.3% and the core CPI slowed to 3.2% year over year.  For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 2.91%, closing at 5996, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.69%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index advanced 2.45%. 

The S&P 500 Index has swiftly rebounded after briefly touching its 28-week moving exponential average. This recovery, which saw the index close near the peak of its recent downturn, has coincided with a reversal in the decline of its momentum indicator which is now moving back toward overbought territory. If the index can sustain another positive week next week, it strongly suggests that the current period of consolidation is ending, paving the way for a renewed upward trend."   

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/10/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed broadly lower as choppy trading continued since the beginning of the year.  A robust jobs report on Friday triggered a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging by 700 points.  Investors grew concerned that the Federal Reserve might halt interest rate cuts due to the strong economic data. Uncertainty surrounding the incoming administration's proposed tariffs also dampened investor sentiment.   For the week, the S&P 500 declined 1.94%, closing at 5827, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.96%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.34%. 

The S&P 500 Index has been on a five-week decline after reaching a peak of 6100 on December 6th as shown in the weekly chart below. Despite remaining above its 28-week exponential moving average, weakening momentum signals a potential drop below the 5740 support level. The ability of the index to swiftly rebound from this support level will be crucial for the continuation of the rally.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/3/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Happy New Year!! Stocks closed modestly lower for the holiday-shortened week.  The slump at the beginning of the week was attributed to the year-end profit taking from traders to close 2024.  Indeed, 2024 is the second consecutive year the S&P 500 index recorded more than 20% growth.  For the week, the S&P 500 went down 0.48%, closing at 5942, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.51%. 

The S&P 500 Index exhibited lower volatility for the second consecutive week, dipping to 5800 during the week but recovering to close modestly higher above its opening level.  The index remains above its 28-week exponential moving average although its momentum is showing signs of weakening. This consolidation phase is anticipated to persist for another couple of weeks."

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index