Fund Rankings Update, 4/17/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell IXG, Buy IYK

Trading signal occurs in the iETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy EWP

Major indices closed the holiday-shortened week lower as tariff concerns lingered. President Trump escalated the trade war with China by increasing the tariffs to 245% on Chinese goods and adding new restrictions on AI chips exporting to China, which greatly impacted Nvidia and AMD.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, closing at 5282, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 2.66%, and the Nasdaq Composite gave up 2.62%.

Following a strong bounce, the S&P 500 has settled above the midpoint of its prior trading range. However, the index remains firmly within a bearish trend, trading considerably below its 28-week exponential moving average. Furthermore, its momentum indicator continues to register below the neutral 50 level. As we highlighted in last week's blog, it's wise to remain patient and await crucial buy signals, specifically a "W" bottom formation and a break above the EMA resistance. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 4/11/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed the volatile week higher as President Trump announced a pause of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days at the last minute on Wednesday to allow for negotiations.  However, the trade war with China escalated as China retaliated with 125% tariff on US goods against US's 145%.  The inflation data for March also provided comfort to investors. The core CPI rose 0.1% from February, the lowest in nine months.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 5.7%, closing at 5363, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 4.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 7.29%.

The S&P 500 experienced a sharp rebound after hitting a low of 4835, closing the week at 5363. This followed a two-stage decline from 6147 (first leg to 5504, second leg to 4835). The index's close above the key 5000 support level, along with its momentum indicator exiting oversold territory, suggests potential trading within the 5000-5500 range. Aligning with last week's analysis, a "W" bottom formation and a break above EMA resistance will be key signals for long-term buying opportunities.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Updatge, 4/4/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy FIEUX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBMPX, Buy FSTCX

Stocks closed sharply lower as President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs against the world on Wednesday.  The harsher-than-expected move triggered fears of retaliation from other countries, as well as higher inflation and economic recession.  While Wall Street is now looking for the Fed's help to counter the impact of tariffs by lowering the interest rates, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, still wants to wait for more clarity before adjusting the money policy.  For the week, the S&P 500 gave up 9.08%, closing at 5074, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 7.86%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 10.02%.

The S&P 500 index plunged Thursday and Friday after President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday, after the market closed.   In the weekly chart below, the index closed below its 28-week exponential moving average the week of March 3 and rebounded before reaching the low of 5504. The index tested the EMA resistance of 5787 during the rebound last week (week of March 24) and experienced severe rejection. The index then fell sharply lower after breaking the the previous low of 5504.  As investors quite oftern overreact to the panic selling, the index may continue to fall to the previous high support at 4600 if it can not hold the current 5000 pyshological support.  From past experience, it is better  to wait before taking trading action at this juncture: Wait for rebound and sell when the index receives rejection at EMA resistance, or wait for "W" shape bottom and breaking above EMA resistance to buy into the market.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/28/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy 42626

Stocks closed broadly lower on inflation and tariff concerns.  On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 25% levy on all non-U.S.-made automobiles, which rattled investors' confidence. Adding oil to the fire, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% in February, up from January’s reading of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, the core PCE rose 2.8%, remaining well above the Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2%.  The S&P 500 fell by 1.53% for the week, closing at 5580. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.96%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.59%. 

 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/21/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed higher snapping a multi-week losing streak.  Investors were pleased with the Fed Chair's dovish tone about the impact of the tariffs and his view that most measures of longer-term expectations still remain consistent with the central bank’s 2% inflation target.  For the week, the S&P 500 increased by 0.51%, closing at 5667. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite went up 0.17%. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

  

Fund Rankings Update, 3/14/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the HSA model portfolio: Sell CSMUX, Buy PCRIX.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell IAI, Buy IXG

Stocks closed lower for the fourth week as tariff concern and fears of recession continue to weigh on investor sentiment.   The focus of the economic data this week was the CPI and PPI data released on Wednesday and Thursday.  Both indices showed the cooling of inflation in February but failed to sway the wait-and-see attitude toward the rate policy from the Fed.  For the week, the S&P 500 declined by 2.27%, closing at 5638. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost another 3.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.43%.   

After confirming the correction phase last week, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 5638, solidly below its 28-week exponential moving average of 5834.   The index has reached the first support region that we discussed last week.  With the deteriorating momentum, the index probably will not hold this level for long and is very likely to go down to the second support at 5200, which is a stronger support in our opinion. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/7/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Ongoing tariff concerns significantly impacted investor sentiment, leading to a third consecutive week of stock market declines. Trade policy uncertainties remained central, particularly following the implementation of 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on Chinese imports. Although the Trump administration later announced a series of exemptions, the resulting volatility and unpredictability negatively affected investor confidence.  For the week, the S&P 500 dropped by 3.1%, closing at 5,770. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a decrease of 2.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite experienced a substantial decline of 3.45%.   

The S&P 500's close at 5770 this week confirms an ongoing correction phase, as it dipped below both its 28-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 5848 and its previous low of 5773. While temporary relief rallies are possible, the index is now in a clear downtrend. Investors should closely monitor its behavior at key support and resistance levels. On the weekly chart, the first support level lies around 5600, followed by a stronger support near 5200. Conversely, the 28-week EMA, previously a support, now acts as the initial resistance at 5848, and the previous high around 6100 provides a stronger second resistance.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 2/28/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDEGX, Buy FCNTX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSLBX, Buy FBMPXX

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWS, Buy FXI

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKXS, Buy Cash

Most stocks declined over the week, with the tech stocks experiencing the most loss. Ongoing concerns about tariffs and slowing economic growth continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Economic data further fueled these concerns, with jobless claims rising by 22,000 to 242,000—the highest level since October 2024—and consumer confidence dropping seven points in February, the sharpest monthly decline in three years. The S&P 500 fell 0.98% for the week, closing at 5,954. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.95%, while the Nasdaq composite index plummeted by 3.47%.    

The S&P 500 tested the 5850 trend line support this week, rebounding to close at 5954, above the 28-week exponential moving average.  Maintaining this trend line support is critical.  As previously noted, the index remains in a consolidation phase between 5850 and 6090.  A drop below 5850, particularly with a close below the prior low of 5773, would confirm a correction.  The index's performance in the coming week will be pivotal in determining its future trajectory.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/21/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGV, Buy FXI

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell ARGFX, Buy FCNTX

Stocks closed lower as President Trump announced his intention for additional 25% tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and chips.  Economic data suggesting a slowing economy further dampened investor confidence. The S&P Global flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached a 17-month low of 50.4, with the service PMI at 49.7 (readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below 50 signal contraction).  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.66%, closing at 6013. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq composite index both decreased by 2.51%.    

The S&P 500 pulled back below the 6090 resistance level after briefly reaching a record high of 6147. Crucially, the index failed to close above 6128, a level needed to confirm a continued uptrend.  The index remains in a sideways consolidation pattern, bounded by support at 5850 and resistance at 6090.  A breakout above the resistance or below the support will determine the index's future direction. 

The Weekly Chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/14/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed higher with growth stocks outperforming value stocks. Investors were relieved that President Trump did not immediately introduce the global reciprocal tariffs but signed an order to postpone it until April 1 after further study, which leaves room for country-by-country negotiations.  On the economic front, all eyes were on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Produce Price Index (PPI), which were released on Wednesday and Thursday.  The CPI came in 0.5% month over month in January and 3.0% year over year.  The PPI advanced 0.4% in January also higher than the expectation. The hotter-than-expected inflation data have prompted Fed Chair Jerome Powell to make the comment that the Fed will keep the policy restrive for longer to bring down the inflation in front of the Senate Banking Committee. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.47%, closing at 6114, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.55%,    and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index jumped 2.58%. 

The S&P 500 finished the week above the 6090 resistance level signaling an attempt to break out of its recent consolidation pattern on the weekly chart.  A confirmed breakout, and a continuation of the uptrend, would be signaled by a close above the previous high of 6128, completing a higher-high formation.  Current momentum suggests a positive outlook, and we remain bullish on the S&P 500's potential for further gains. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/7/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IYZ, Buy IAI

Stocks recovered from a large sell-off at the start of the week as President Trump's imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico received a postponement for 30 days.  Positive company earnings also helped investors' sentiment.  77% of the companies that have reported quarterly earnings so far have met or exceeded the expectations. Economic indicators presented a mixed picture. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) demonstrated growth in the manufacturing sector during January. However, job growth figures fell short of projections, raising concerns about a potential weakening in the labor market.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.24%, closing at 6025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went down 0.54%,    and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index declined 0.53%. 

The S&P 500 index is clearly in a side-way consolidation around 6000, as seen in the weekly chart. The long-term upward trend remains intact, with the index staying above its 28-week exponential average. However, it's important to note that the index is currently testing a resistance level around 6090. A successful break above this level could end the consolidation phase and pave the way for a renewed upward trend.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/31/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Major indices closed mixed this week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the only index to see gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both ended the week in the red.  Several factors influenced investor sentiment this week. Positive earnings reports from tech giants Meta and Apple provided some optimism, while in-line core inflation data suggested that the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation may be working. However, concerns about tariffs and the emergence of a lower-cost AI model from China led to a sell-off in tech stocks.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.0%, closing at 6040, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.27%, while the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index declined 1.64%. 

The S&P 500 pulled back from the key resistance level of 6100. This follows a significant recovery after a Deep Seek AI related sell-off earlier in the week, with the index now stabilizing around 6000.  As seen on the weekly chart, this period of consolidation has been ongoing for the past three months. With the index maintaining its upward trend and strong momentum, a breakout toward the 6220-6300 price range is expected once this consolidation phase concludes.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/24/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks closed higher as Wall Street celebrated President Trump's inauguration. Investors' sentiment was also helped by Trump's decision not to impose new tariffs on day one, as he promised during the campaign trail. Instead, he ordered federal agencies to review U.S. trade policies to determine the impact of potential future tariffs. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 1.74%, closing at 6101, a new record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.15%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index advanced 1.66%. 

The S&P 500 Index has made a new record high, which confirms the renewal of the upward trend. The weekly chart shows the higher high and higher low patterns. Given the high upward momentum, we expect the index to march higher toward the 6220-6300 level.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The weekly chart of the FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 1/17/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks rebounded from the sell-off at the end of last week and finished broadly higher with valued stocks outperforming growth stocks.  Optimism was supported by strong earnings reports from the financial sector as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all reported profit surges during the fourth quarter. Cooling inflation data also boosted investors' sentiment.  The Labor Department reported on Wednesday that the core CPI for December rose 0.2% month over month, lower than the expected 0.3% and the core CPI slowed to 3.2% year over year.  For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 2.91%, closing at 5996, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.69%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index advanced 2.45%. 

The S&P 500 Index has swiftly rebounded after briefly touching its 28-week moving exponential average. This recovery, which saw the index close near the peak of its recent downturn, has coincided with a reversal in the decline of its momentum indicator which is now moving back toward overbought territory. If the index can sustain another positive week next week, it strongly suggests that the current period of consolidation is ending, paving the way for a renewed upward trend."   

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/10/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed broadly lower as choppy trading continued since the beginning of the year.  A robust jobs report on Friday triggered a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging by 700 points.  Investors grew concerned that the Federal Reserve might halt interest rate cuts due to the strong economic data. Uncertainty surrounding the incoming administration's proposed tariffs also dampened investor sentiment.   For the week, the S&P 500 declined 1.94%, closing at 5827, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.96%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.34%. 

The S&P 500 Index has been on a five-week decline after reaching a peak of 6100 on December 6th as shown in the weekly chart below. Despite remaining above its 28-week exponential moving average, weakening momentum signals a potential drop below the 5740 support level. The ability of the index to swiftly rebound from this support level will be crucial for the continuation of the rally.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/3/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Happy New Year!! Stocks closed modestly lower for the holiday-shortened week.  The slump at the beginning of the week was attributed to the year-end profit taking from traders to close 2024.  Indeed, 2024 is the second consecutive year the S&P 500 index recorded more than 20% growth.  For the week, the S&P 500 went down 0.48%, closing at 5942, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.51%. 

The S&P 500 Index exhibited lower volatility for the second consecutive week, dipping to 5800 during the week but recovering to close modestly higher above its opening level.  The index remains above its 28-week exponential moving average although its momentum is showing signs of weakening. This consolidation phase is anticipated to persist for another couple of weeks."

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index