Fund Rankings Update, 3/7/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Ongoing tariff concerns significantly impacted investor sentiment, leading to a third consecutive week of stock market declines. Trade policy uncertainties remained central, particularly following the implementation of 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on Chinese imports. Although the Trump administration later announced a series of exemptions, the resulting volatility and unpredictability negatively affected investor confidence.  For the week, the S&P 500 dropped by 3.1%, closing at 5,770. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a decrease of 2.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite experienced a substantial decline of 3.45%.   

The S&P 500's close at 5770 this week confirms an ongoing correction phase, as it dipped below both its 28-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 5848 and its previous low of 5773. While temporary relief rallies are possible, the index is now in a clear downtrend. Investors should closely monitor its behavior at key support and resistance levels. On the weekly chart, the first support level lies around 5600, followed by a stronger support near 5200. Conversely, the 28-week EMA, previously a support, now acts as the initial resistance at 5848, and the previous high around 6100 provides a stronger second resistance.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 2/28/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDEGX, Buy FCNTX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSLBX, Buy FBMPXX

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWS, Buy FXI

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKXS, Buy Cash

Most stocks declined over the week, with the tech stocks experiencing the most loss. Ongoing concerns about tariffs and slowing economic growth continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Economic data further fueled these concerns, with jobless claims rising by 22,000 to 242,000—the highest level since October 2024—and consumer confidence dropping seven points in February, the sharpest monthly decline in three years. The S&P 500 fell 0.98% for the week, closing at 5,954. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.95%, while the Nasdaq composite index plummeted by 3.47%.    

The S&P 500 tested the 5850 trend line support this week, rebounding to close at 5954, above the 28-week exponential moving average.  Maintaining this trend line support is critical.  As previously noted, the index remains in a consolidation phase between 5850 and 6090.  A drop below 5850, particularly with a close below the prior low of 5773, would confirm a correction.  The index's performance in the coming week will be pivotal in determining its future trajectory.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index