Fund Rankings Update, 12/26/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy FDSCX

U.S. stocks rallied broadly during the holiday-shortened week, lifting the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to fresh record highs.  Market sentiment was bolstered by the report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Tuesday, showing that the US economy expanded more than expected, with the 3rd quarter GDP growing at a rate of 4.3% well above the consensus estimate of 3%. Elsewhere, the Conference Board reported that U.S. consumer confidence slid for the fifth month in December as the Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 89.1, well below the estimate of 91.5.  Investors, however,  largely look past the consumer data.  For the week, the S&P 500 jumped 1.4% to close at 6929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite index advanced 1.22%.

The S&P 500 has successfully broken through its 3-week consolidation pattern, securing a record close at 6,929 this week. By surpassing the critical 6,920 resistance level, the index has cleared the way for further gains. Should the 'Santa Claus Rally' maintain this momentum and hold 6,920 as new support next week, we anticipate a continued upward trajectory toward the 7,200 milestone.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/19/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks went largely stagnant this week, with major indices delivering mixed performance. The small-cap and industrial sectors, which led the market the prior week, underperformed this week, while the tech sectors staged a comeback. On the economic data front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level in over four years, while the inflation rate(CPI) unexpectedly cooled to 2.7% in November.   For the week, the S&P 500 nudged up 0.1% to close at 6834, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.67%, and the Nasdaq Composite index went up 0.48%.

The S&P 500 index remained range-bound for the third week, consolidating near the upper boundary of the flat trading channel. The index is currently bounded by the overhead resistance at 6920 and supported by the 28-week exponential moving average at 6526.  As we enter the holiday-shortened Christmas week, all eyes are on whether a "Santa Claus Rally" will materialize to drive the index toward new year-end highs. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 12/12/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYW, Buy IBB

Major indices closed the week mixed after the Fed cut the interest rate by 0.25%. The small-cap and industrial sectors outperformed the broader market, while the tech sectors experienced a slump. The focus of the week lies on the Fed's policy meeting, which concluded with a 025% cut as expected. However, the Fed's statement after the meeting indicated only one more cut coming in the next year, which weighed on investors' sentiment.  For the week, the S&P 500 declined 0.63% to close at 6827, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite index fell 1.62%.

Despite a Federal Reserve rate cut, the S&P 500 was unable to sustain its push, peaking at 6903 before finishing the week at 6827. The index failed to break the critical resistance level identified last week at the previous high of 6920. The next two weeks are crucial: if the index cannot close above 6920, we anticipate a pullback to test support at 6520 and the 28-week Exponential Moving Average at 6503. A breach below the established support structure would confirm a trend reversal. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 12/5/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks opened the first week of December higher, with the Tech sector leading the way amid investors' hope for a rate cut in the Fed's December 9 meeting. Economic data released during the week showed that growth is softening.  On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a Purchase Managers' Index (PMI) of 48.2 for November, down from 48.7 in October (PMI readings below 50% indicate contraction, while readings above 50% signal expansion). On Wednesday, Non-Farm employment data showed that private sector payrolls decreased by 32,000 in November, well below the estimated increase of 5000.  However, positive news came from tame inflation data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index ( the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) rose 0.3% month over month in September, in line with August’s reading. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, also in line with the prior month.  With the backdrop of soft economic growth and tame inflation, all eyes are on the Fed's rate policy action in its meeting next week.  For the week, the S&P 500 marched 0.31% higher to close at 6870, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite index advanced 0.91%.

The S&P 500 index concluded the week slightly higher at 6870, as market participants await the crucial Federal Reserve policy meeting this coming week. The weekly chart below shows the index facing immediate resistance at its previous high of 6920, and the key support at its previous low of 6521. The index's movement next week is critical in determining its medium-term trajectory. A  Fed rate cut, if announced as expected by analysts, is expected to provide the necessary catalyst for the index to decisively break through the 6920 resistance and resume its recent uptrend. However, failure to receive the expected rate policy could lead to a significant market rejection at the resistance level and trigger a trend reversal. We will monitor these developments closely. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index