Fund Rankings and FEMKX Updates, 1/29/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Thursday I saw on "Mad Money" (yes, I do watch the show once a while) that Jim Cramer agreed with me that investors were looking for reasons to sell stocks. During the week, we have seen the great company earning reports and last quarter's high GDP (5.7%) number failed to give market a boost. Instead, the negative sentiment prevailed and the stock markets continued their slides from the week before. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1073, down 1.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.0%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 2.6% for the week.

Going forward, the fundamental of the economy is still looking positive. Companies are making money, and will start hiring people. When people have jobs they will start buying houses. It is just that simple. The good time may not come right away, but it will arrive eventually. From technical point of view, the monthly chart has indicated that we are in the beginning of the multi-year up trend. So I will treat this sell-off as a correction for the rally since last March. The stock markets need to take a break to digest their gain for the past 10 months, and in this respect, the correction may be a good chance for people who have missed the rally to get back in. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index below, the STO has fell below 75 and looks to break below 50, so the downside risk is higher than the up side. However, the price has broken its 13 week trend line and is approaching its 28 weeks support line so we may see some rebound next week. We won't know the extent and the duration of this correction until it is over.

(click picture to enlarge)

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. We will buy FEMKX if its STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its STO[15,1] falls below 75. We bought FEMKX on 3/30/09 at $12.31. We sold FEMKX this Monday at $21.96 with a gain of 78.4% after holding it for 301 days. Right now, we are holding cash since its STO[15,1] stands at 48.8.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 1/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 1/25/10 $1.00

Fund Rankings Update, 1/22/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell ILF, Buy IYM
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWZ, Buy INP
Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timimg model: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH (Weekly STO of FEMKX is 74 dipped below the threshold of 75)

Investors were looking for a reason to sell and they got plenty. The company earning reports can not excite them to buy stocks and president Obama's proposed sticker banking rules pored the oil on the fire. The stock markets slide down big in the last three trading days. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1091, down 3.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 4.12%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 3.61% for the week.

Higher volatile funds react to the market sell off triggering trading signals in ETF, sETF model portfolios and FEMKX timing system. We will keep a close eye on next week's development.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/15/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

The earning season began with Alcoa's disappointing announcement and stocks reacted to it. Most companies were expected to make large profits as Intel and JP Morgan because of their cost cuttings and the easy comparisons to the small number a year a go. The investors seemed to look beyond the earning numbers and focus on the revenue growth to gauge the strength of the economy recovery. Up and own are the nature of the stock price movement. As long as the trend is intact, we are still in the long position. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1136, down 0.48%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.08%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 1.26% for the week.

The transportation, and technology sectors are the stronger sectors this week, and Korea and India are still coming strong in the international arena.

Last week, I could not upload the ranking tables to Google site because of their system issue. To keep you informed about the ranking updates, I had to move the whole site (all the pages and their links) to another web host and that was why the ranking pages looked different last week. I hope this won't happen again but I can not complain much since these are all free services.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/8/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy FRESX.

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBSOX, Buy FSAIX.

A good start is half of the success, and stocks started this year with a good week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1144, up 2.68%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.82%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 2.12% for the week. The monthly chart of the S&P 500 index shows that the price is firmly above the trend line and the stochastic indicator STO[15,1] is at 86, above the threshold of 50. According to the chart, we are in the early stage of multi-year up trend.

The air transportation, automotive and basic material sectors are the stronger sectors this week, and Korea and India are coming strong in the international arena. In our SSPP ranking table, FEMKX was pushed out of the 7th rank by FDEGX and FMCSX, while in the SELECT ranking table, FBSOX was pushed out by FSELX.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/31/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell NMGIX, Buy CBSAX.

iEF and sETF rankings update and Market Review, 12/29/2009

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at :http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

iETF and sETF ranking table will be updated over the weekend together with the other ranking tables, starting Jan. 1, 2010.

Stock markets will close the year in another two days and I do not expect they will change much. The S&P 500 index began this year with 903, continuing the spiral downward tend from the end of last year due the the economy meltdown. It reached the low of 682 on March 5, losing 24.4%. As the economy stabilized, the stock markets rebounded and their momentum turned from negative to positive. By the end of March, the weekly stochastics of S&P 500 index has climbed over 50, and our FEMKX trading system, which is based on stochastics, also issued a buy signal on March 30. However, after the sever down turn, these signals were treated with cautiousness. The confirmation of the signal came in mid-April when the S&P 500 index closed above its 28 week moving average, and all of our model portfolios issued "buy" signals. After the index broke through the moving average, it hovered around the trend line for 3 months building the base and then took off from there in July. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index gained 24.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 20.2% and the NASDAQ composite index went up 45.3%. The technology sectors are leading the way as in any economy recovery phase.

Our stochastics based FEMKX timing model, turned in the best performance this year again. It issued the "buy" signal first in March and still holds the position with a gain of 82%. nSSPp and SELECT model portfolios delivered the second best performance with a gain of 55%. nSSPP bought into FEMKX in April and traded it for ARGFX in August and still holds ARGFX. SELECT moved from cash to FWRLX in April and subsequently made two other trades. It currently holds the FBSOX. The SSPP model portfolio made 3 trades this year with a gain of 27.5% outperformed the S&P 500 index a bit. The ETF, iETF and sETF model portfolios are under performing the S&P 500 index this year. ETF model portfolio made 5 trades and gained only 10%, sETF made 5 trades as well but gained 24%, and iETF made 4 trades making 17.5%. The higher volatility nature of these funds made it difficulty to develop good solid gains as their holding periods seldom last more than 90 days.

Economy recovery is gaining its foothold and the government stimulus programs will keep coming next year. Next year should be a prosper year and I hope it is even better than this year!

Fund Rankings Update, 12/25/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at:http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Santa came to Wall Street this week and gave stock markets a boost. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1126, up 2.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.85%, and the technology heavy Nasdaq composite index gained 3.35% for the week leading the major indexes.

Real Estate and Technology sectors were among the stronger sectors for the past week. In the international front, Brazil and Latin America still held their top ranks.

I have quietly started the ranking table for HSA. It contains the 15 funds in my company's Health Saving Account. These 15 funds are basically large cap, mid cap, small cap index funds, and income funds. I do not think they have enough volatility and the sector coverage such that the ranking system can take advantage to outperform the general market. In addition, the number of funds is too small to set an meaningful threshold. However, I am willing to give it a try. I will apply the similar rule as the other model portfolios but set the threshold at 5. The trading record is posted in the SSPP_Log page, and we shall see how it performs over time.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. We will buy FEMKX if its STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its STO[15,1] falls below 75. We bought FEMKX on 3/30 at $12.31. FEMKX closded at $22.30 today with a gain of 81.2% after holding it for 270 days. We are still holding FEMKX since its STO[15,1] currently stands at 76.8, above the selling threshold of 75.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31