Due to hard disk failure in my web hosting provider, the ranking posts were not available for the past couple of days and will not be available until the service is restore so than I can upload the ranking tables and trading logs for the week. According to their communication, the service should be back online tomorrow night. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Fund Rankings Update, 1/14/2011
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/
Encouraged by the good company earnings, stocks continued their up trend this past week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1293 up 1.71%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.96%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 1.93% for the week.
Monthly chart of S&P 500 index below shows that the index is well above its trend line and the momentum has been strong since August 2010. It indicates that the multi-year up-trend is well under way.
Fund Rankings Update, 1/7/2011
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/
Stocks came out strong the first week of the new year. Job data on Friday indicated a slow but steady recovery. Technology sectors were boosted by the new products came out of the annual Consumer Electronic Show in Las Vegas. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1271 up 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.84%, and while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 1.9% for the week.
Again, we did not see any trend change this past week. Small cap, technology, auto and energy related sectors are still leading the way in US market due to the slow but robust economy growth. Global regions still lagged behind the US markets in performance because of the European debt concern and the government initiated slow down in China.
Fund Rankings Update, 12/31/2010
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWH, Buy EWT
There was not much action on the Wall street for the last week of the year. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1257 up 0.07%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.03%, and while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 0.48% for the week.
Today is the last day of the year. Stocks closed this year with a double digit gain again, second year in a row. For the year, S&P 500 index went up 12.8%, Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 11.0% and the Nasdaq composite index gained 17.4%. However, the year-end numbers did not tell the whole story. All the gains actually came from second half of the year. Stocks started 2010 with a mild correction in January and continued their 2009 rally into April. However, with US' economy stimulus running out, Europe's debt crisis creeping up, and China's slowing down, investors started worrying about that the fragile recovery would fail and the economy would dipped back to recession. Lacking the investors' confidence, major indexes plummeted for 3 months from April to July. During this time, S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ gave up 23%, 20%, and 27% from their high respectively and were 7% - 8% below where they started at the beginning of the year. Although the economy data have been bad, the company earnings remained strong. With support from company earnings, stocks stopped the downward spiral and slowly climbed back. In addition, to keep the economy recovery on tack, the Fed has maintained the easy money policy, which also helped stock markets. Economy data eventually turned the corner, and stocks has been going up since July.
As U.S. economy seems to be on a growth path again, I expect that commodity and energy price will continue to rise in 2011, and auto industry will continue its recovery as these sectors have been occupying the top ranks in the SELECT ranking table for a while. Technology and small caps usually lead the way in the economy recovery phase, and I also expect that they will outperform the general market again next year. Low interest rate and slow but robust growth are what I think we will experience in the next year. On the global front, emergent markets are trying to control their growth and fighting inflations. They are also trying to change their export oriented economies into domestic consumer oriented economies, and these changes will make their growth more robust. Overall, I am optimistic about 2011.
To welcome the new year and to reflect my optimism, I have changed the color scheme of this blog to a brighter tone as well as the background picture. I also turned on the mobile viewing template for easy viewing from smart phones or i-pod touch (got to keep up with the mobile life style ^_^). Happy new year!!
Fund Rankings Update, 12/24/2010
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/
Trading was thin for this short holiday week but stocks still managed to close the week higher. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1256 up 1.03%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.71%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.86% for the week.
Sensing the pick up in US' economy, oil price has risen above $90 and the price of other energy source has also risen in the past few weeks. We can see the ranks of oil/natural resource related funds rising in the Select and sETF ranking tables. In the global arena, rapid regional rotations have occurred after October. For the moment, Taiwan, Mexico and South Africa are taking the top 3 ranks in iETF ranking table.
You may notice that I have added 2 QR codes in the right side bar of this blog. These are for users who has QR code scanners in their mobile/smart phones or i-pod touch to quickly access this blog site (QR code 1) and momentum ranking tables (QR code 2) from their mobile devices. Use the code reader in your phone to scan the picture and it will automatically take you to the site. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!
Fund Rankings Update, 12/17/2010
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell EZA, Buy IYM
Investors did not want to commit their money during this year end period, major stock market indexes closed this week without seeing much movement either on the upside or on the down side. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1243 up 0.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.72%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.21% for the week.
Continuing the theme in the past few weeks, the US domestic market out-performed the international markets due to the European debt concern and China's money tightening policy. In the ETF ranking table, the South Africa index (EZA) was pushed out of top 10 rank, and the US basic material index has hold the top rank for 4 weeks. The ETF model portfolio issued a trading signal to replace EZA with IYM.
In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the price is well above the trend line and the momentum is very strong, indicating that the up-trend will last for a while.
Fund Rankings Update, 12/10/2010
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/
Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FPBFX, Buy FDSCX
Trading signal occurs in nSSPP model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy 42632 (FRONTIER SM CAP GR)
On the news that White house and minority congressional Republicans reached the tax cut deal, S&P 500 index closed this week at 1240 up 1.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.25%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index led the way and gained 1.78% for the week.
With the US economy getting back to a more robust track and US dollar getting stronger, the domestic markets outperformed global markets in the past few weeks. In the more diversified ranking tables with both global funds and US domestic funds, we have experienced sector rotations between domestic funds and global funds. In the SSPP model portfolio, the pacific basin fund (FPBFX) has been pushed out of the top 7 ranks and is replaced with the top ranked small cap fund (FDSCX). All the top 7 rank funds in SSPP ranking table are US domestic funds. Similar situation happened in the nSSPP model portfolio, the global oriented emergent market fund (FEMKX) fell out of the top 7 ranks and is replaced with the small cap fund (42632).
We are still holding FEMKX for our FEMKX timing model which use momentum indicator, STO[15,1], as trading signals. With FEMKX timing system, we will buy it when its STO[15,1] climbs above 50 and sell it when its STO[15,1] fell below 75. The STO[15,1] of FEMKX has come down below 80 in the recent weeks but still maintained above our sell threshold of 75 (pleaese see chart below for detail). The trading log of FEMKX timing model is listed in the SELECT_Log page.
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