Fund Rankings Update, 3/4/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYM, Buy IYE.

Private sectors added more jobs in February and push the employment below 9%. This provides the final indicator that the economy recovery is in a sound footing. However, the unrest in the middle east which push the oil price to the highest level since 2008 may threaten the economy growth. Stocks ended this week almost flat, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 1321 up 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.33%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.13% for the week.

Energy related sectors still led the way in the US markets due the rising oil prices. In the ETF ranking table, IYM is pushing out of the top 10 ranking and causing our model portfolio to sell the fund and replace it with top ranked IYE. In global regions, Canada and Germany hold the top two momentum rankings.

Here is an update of our FEMKX timing model (I have not done this for a while), which trades only Fidelity Emergent Market Fund, FEMKX. The system will buy FEMKX if its technical momentum indicator, slow STO[15,1], climbs above 50, hold the fund at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. We sold FEMKX on 1/31/2011 and held cash on the side line since then. The STO[15,1] of FEMKX as shown in the chart below, went down to the low of 22 two weeks ago and bounced back afterwards. I am watching closely the price movement of FEMKX as its STO[15,1] currently stands at 40, and we will buy back FEMKX when its STO[15,1] climbs above 50. The trading record for the FEMKX timing model can be found in the "SELECT_Log" page.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/25/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSAVX, Buy FSESX.

Stocks' winning steak came to an end this past week. Unrest in Libya caused big volatility in oil price and sent stocks into the negative territory. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1319 down 1.72%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.1%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 1.87% for the week.

Small cap, and energy related sectors still led the way in the US markets. Oil price has been trending up and exhibited great volatility since "Jasmine revolution" in the middle east. In SELECT ranking table, automotive sector fund, FSAVX has fallen below 7th rank and is replaced with the current top ranked energy service fund, FSESX. Global markets still underperformed US markets. In the iETF ranking table the top ranked fund has been changed hands several times in the past three months, indicating that there is major investment theme in the global market.

This rally has been going on since last September, and it may need to take a break as investors re-assessing their portfolios in lieu of the political development in the middle east. We don't know where the market is heading until we get there. In the meantime, we can stick to our investment strategies and ride this uncertainty out.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/18/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWT, Buy EWG.

Stocks went up for the third week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1343 up 1.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.96%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.87% for the week.

Small cap, and energy related sectors are leading the way in the US markets, while Korea, and Taiwan lost their shine in global regions and replaced by Germany and Austria. Stocks in global regions still underperformed their US counterparts. Comparing the weekly charts of S&P500 index and FEMKX, we can see that S&P 500 index is still in the up trend with high momentum while FEMKX has been in the consolidation mode with falling momentum since last November.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/11/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks continued their climbing. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1329 up 1.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.5%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 1.45% for the week.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/4/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks chugged along and reached two year high. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1310 up 2.71%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.27%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 3.07% for the week.

Small cap, technology, and energy sectors are leading the way in the US markets, while Korea, and Taiwan maintains the top ranks in global regions. Look closely to iETF ranking table, we also noticed that the more developed countries such as Japan, Italy and Germany have come back in life in the past few weeks. However, the US domestic sectors still posses higher momentum than global regions, indicating the strength of US economy recovery. Some even said that we are no longer in the recovery phase but in the economy expansion phase.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/28/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX Timing model: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH.

Selling mood prevailed in the wall street. Investors unloaded their positions on any earning miss, so so economy data and unsettling political news from Egypt. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1275 down 0.55%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.41%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 0.1% for the week.

The momentum indicator STO[15,1] of FEMKX has dropped below the selling threshold of 75, and a sell signal has been issued. We have held FEMKX for about 180 days with a gain of 10%. According to our FEMKX timing rule, we will buy the fund if its STO climbs above 50 and sell the fund if its STO falls below 75. Detail trading record of the FEMKX timing model can be found in the SELECT_Log page.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/21/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSCHX, Buy FSAVX.

Cold weather chill investors' mood this week. Stocks ended up mixed this week due to mixed earning reports. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1283 down 0.76%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.72%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 2.39% for the week.

We have see profit taking this past week and most of the stocks ended down more than the major indexes. Next week, a quarter of the S&P 500 and half of the DOW stocks will report their quarterly earnings. Some companies reported strong earnings this past week but still see their stocks went down, so I expect that the profit taking action will continue next week. This rally has last for a while and need to take a break. Since we are in a multi-year up trend, any pull back will provide good entry point.

As of this morning, the servers at awardspace.com are still not back online. I have moved the pages to other hosting provider. The rankings tables and the trading logs should be up and viewable.

GM has changed the name of its 401k plan to RSP (Retirement Saving Plan), so I have changed the name of the nSSPP ranking table and trading log accordingly to reflect the change as well.