Fund Rankings Update, 4/15/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks were in a consolidation mode. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1319 down 0.64%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 031%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.57% for the week. A lot of companies will report earnings in the next 2 weeks. How stocks react to these announcements will tell us whether they are going up or going down.

Although I mainly focus on analyzing price charts of ETF and mutual funds, sometimes I come across some interesting stock charts that I woule like to share. Due to poor earning report Google's stock price went down $48 (8.26%) today. Google and Apple are the two major tech companies competing in the smart phone and tablet area. Let's compare the weekly charts of these 2 companies. Apple has been going higher an higher since March 2009. Every time the price touch the trend line and the momentum indicator fell below 50, it came right back and resume its up trend. Currently, its price touches the trend line and the momentum indicator falls below 50 again. It will be interesting to see if it can repeat its previous pattern to resume the up trend. On the other hand, Google's 2009 rally has been interrupted in March 2010. After six months, its price went back above trend line, but failed to go higher. The price went side way for 5 months, went down below the trend line in March this year and failed to break above it at the end of March. Its momentum is going downward and I suspect the price will go down to 500 - 450 level.

Fund Rankings Update, 4/8/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks were mostly flat this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1328 down 0.32%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.03%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.33% for the week.

Technically, S&P500 index is still hovering above the trend line in the weekly chart, and its momentum indicator has climbed back above 80 after went down to 70 two weeks ago. It looks like the index is moving side way before it breaks above the previous high of 1343.

Fund Rankings Update, 4/1/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks boosted by good job report continued their march upward. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1332 up 1.42%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.28%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased 1.7% for the week.

After staying at the side line for 2 months, our FEMKX timing model has issued a buy signal again. The FEMKX timing model is different than the momentum ranking system. It uses the technical indicator, slow STO[15,1], as trading signals. The model will buy FEMKX when its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold the fund for at least 30 days and sell the fund if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. The trading record of FEMKX timing model can be seen in the Select_Log page. In the weekly chart of FEMKX below, we can see that after we sold FEMKX at the end of January, the fund has successfully tested the support (tend line) 3 times and recently broke the previous high of $26.64. In addition, its slow STO[15,1] shot up from 39 to 65 this week. This price action and the upswinging momentum bode well for a bullish argument for FEMKX.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/25/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWG, Buy EWC

Better economy news and strong company earnings helped stocks rebound from their support levels. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1313 up 2.70%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.05%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased3.76% for the week.

There was not much change in the sector trend. The energy related sectors still hold top momentum rankings among US domestic sectors, while global regions are still struggling to find a major theme. Our holding of EWG in iETF model portfolio has dropped below 7th rank and is replaced by EWC.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/18/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Uncertainty due to Japan's nuclear crisis dragged down the stock market for another week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1279 down 1.92%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.54%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index suffered a loss of 2.65% for the week.

In the last blog post, I pointed out that stock market is due for a technical consolidation or correction. If you look at the weekly chart of S&P 500 index below, you can see that the price is heading down toward the trend line and its momentum (STO[15,1]) is declining fast. Holding at the support will be the key to keep this rally going and we shall see how things develop in the next few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/11/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Market was affected not by economy new but by political development in the middle east and the earthquake and tsunami hitting Japan early Friday morning. Technically, I think the market is due for a consolidation or a correction. Stocks ended this week on the downside, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 1304 down 1.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.03%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 2.48% for the week.

While the overall market is heading toward consolidation or maybe even a correction, there was no change in sector leadership and regional leadership. Energy related sectors still dominate the SELECT and sETF ranking tables while Canada and west European countries are still leading the pack in iETF ranking table.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/4/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYM, Buy IYE.

Private sectors added more jobs in February and push the employment below 9%. This provides the final indicator that the economy recovery is in a sound footing. However, the unrest in the middle east which push the oil price to the highest level since 2008 may threaten the economy growth. Stocks ended this week almost flat, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 1321 up 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.33%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.13% for the week.

Energy related sectors still led the way in the US markets due the rising oil prices. In the ETF ranking table, IYM is pushing out of the top 10 ranking and causing our model portfolio to sell the fund and replace it with top ranked IYE. In global regions, Canada and Germany hold the top two momentum rankings.

Here is an update of our FEMKX timing model (I have not done this for a while), which trades only Fidelity Emergent Market Fund, FEMKX. The system will buy FEMKX if its technical momentum indicator, slow STO[15,1], climbs above 50, hold the fund at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. We sold FEMKX on 1/31/2011 and held cash on the side line since then. The STO[15,1] of FEMKX as shown in the chart below, went down to the low of 22 two weeks ago and bounced back afterwards. I am watching closely the price movement of FEMKX as its STO[15,1] currently stands at 40, and we will buy back FEMKX when its STO[15,1] climbs above 50. The trading record for the FEMKX timing model can be found in the "SELECT_Log" page.