Fund Rankings Update, 12/31/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks fell in the last trading week of 2015 and ended up lower for the year as well. Positive economy data on consumer confidence were offset by increase in weekly jobless claim. Investors just are not in the mood of holding stocks especially in the last two days of the year.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 20430, down 0.83%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.72% while NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.81%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Although S&P 500 index closed the week two points lower than its 28 week moving average, its weekly momentum indicator perked up a bit. This make us wonder if the "January effect" is around the corner. The January effect is a seasonal effect where investors sell their lost holdings at year end for tax purpose and buy them back in January at a lower price causing the rally in stock markets.

2015 has been another volatile year, S&P 500 index started the year with 2058 and reached the high of 2134 in May for a gain of 76 points. However, the index failed to march higher, and fell below its trend line in August after going flat for three months. S&P 500 index pluged to the low of 1867 due to concern about global economy slowdown, devaluation of China Renminbi and prospect of first rate hike by Federal Reserve. The index made its way back after staying two months below its tend line and has since struggled to keep itself above the support as the declining oil prices dragging its feet.

Looking forwards, we see slow growth in US economy with moderate rate hike as Fed tries to normalize the interest rate. Oil prices will continue to trend lower to $25, if it can not hold the current $34 support. Stock prices, still under a lot of pressure to digest their gain from the long rally in the past three years, will go side way with downward bias at best.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/24/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks climbed higher along with a bounce in oil prices in this holiday-shorten week to give investors a Christmas gift.  Oil prices rallied on the news that US rig count continued to decrease and the inventory went down surprisingly. Economy data released during the week also booted the rally in stocks as new home sales rose and jobless claims declined in November. For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2060, up 2.76%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.47% while NASDAQ composite index increased 2.55%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

In the last four weeks, S&P 500 index has been slowly making lower low and lower high with declining momentum as seen in the weekly chart.  However, the index is in a short term rebound phase due to oversold condition, which propelled it back above the 28 week moving average. As the short term rebound working against the downward bias from intermediate term down trend, we expect the index to move side way with downside support at 2000 and upper resistance at 2100 around its 28 week moving average for the next couple of weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/18/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks started the week strong in anticipation of   Federal Reserve's raising interest rate for the first time in 10 years. On Wednesday, in its announcement after FOMC meeting, the FED raised the Fed fund rate by 0.25% and made it clear that the subsequent rate hike will be gradual and data driven.  Traders and Investors were encouraged by FED's dovish stance and rallied immediately. Unfortunately, the rally fell apart on Thursday and Friday, and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 600 points in those two days. Plunging oil prices, which fell below $35 a barrel, and quadruple witching day were attributed to be the culprit of the sharp drop in stock prices.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2005, down 0.34%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.79% while NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.21%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

A bearish reversal showed up in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. After a long red candle a week before, the index tried to rallied back above its 28 week moving average.  However, the bearish sentiment still dominates the trading floor and overpowering the bull forcing the index to fall back down and end up below where it began. With the index staying below its trend line and heading downward with declining momentum, we expect the volatility will last for anther few weeks and no Santa rally this year.  

Fund Rankings Update, 12/11/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWY, Buy EWK.

Plunging oil prices handed stock market a brutal week. Oil price went below $36 a barrel, down 11% for the week. On Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 300 points. With the first rate hike by Federal Reserve on the horizon, investors rushed to sideline for a wait-and-see position.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2012, down 3.798%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.268% while NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.06%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

A big plunge in stock prices has forced a long red candle in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. The index has fell below its 28 week moving average.  Again, it is the action after either a big jump or big loss that indicates the strength of the markets. Investors have anticipate a rate hike by Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting this coming Tuesday. Market reaction to the event is critical and will determine the direction for the next six months.

An trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio, the average momentum indicator(AMI) of EWY has turned negative even though its AMI ranking is still above the threshold. We will replace the fund with the current number one1 fund, EWK, in the iETF ranking table. The model portfolio has held EWY for 46 days with a loss of 9.2%. Performance of iETF model portfolio has lagged the other model portfolios since its inception. Global funds have experienced larger volatility influenced by not only the  market condition but also the currency exchange rate. 

Fund Rankings Update, 12/4/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Whether Federal Reserve will raise interest rate in its next FOMC meeting on December 15 has put markets on edge and in a wait and see holding pattern.  On Tuesday, stocks went up thinking Fed will not raise interest rate in December, but on Wednesday and Thursday stock markets turned sharply down thinking Fed will raise interest rate. Interestingly, the same thinking that Fed will hike interest rate in December pulled the markets back up on Friday to close the week flat.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2091, up 0.08%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.28% while NASDAQ composite index increased 0.29%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index closed flat for the second week as shown in the weekly chart waiting for the interest rate decision from Federal Reserve 10 days from now. The index appears to be holding up firmly above the support level with increasing momentum. The index went down during the week to test its 28 week moving average and successfully came back up to where it was. We expect the index to be flat before the rate hike decision from the FED.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/27/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

 Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 05088, Buy 42627 (see RSP ranking table) .

Following Thanksgiving tradition, major stock indices were flat this shortened trading week. Economy data showed growing personal income, falling jobless claim and upward revision of 3rd quarter GDP.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2090, up 0.04%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.14% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.44%.

Weekly chat of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index stabilized around the recent high level to reduce the volatility in the weekly chart. In the past years, "Santa Rally" usually moved the market higher through out December into Christmas. This year, we have yet to see any indication of "Santa Rally". As we still have four weeks to go before Christmas, hopefully Santa can come in time to bring gift to the markets.

This week another model portfolio moved away from defensive position. A trading signal occurred in RSP model portfolio to sell Black Rock US debt index (05088) and buy SSGA REIT index (42627) due to momentum ranking change. We have held 05088 for 91 days with a gain of 0.3%.  

Fund Rankings Update, 11/20/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

 Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell IUTIX, Buy JLVIX.

After last week's sharp drop and terrorist attacks in Paris, stocks rallied this week, recovered most of the lost of last week.  Markets seemed to be prepared for the interest rate hike in December as indicated in Fed's meeting minutes released on Wednesday.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2089, up 3.35%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.71%  and Nasdaq composite index increased 3.59%. 

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Strong rally pushed S&P 500 index back above its 28 week moving average as shown in the weekly chart. Momentum of S&P 500 index is trending higher and the test of the support level looks to be successful to sustain the up trend. Next step is for the index to break above its previous high of 2125 level.

As market condition turned positive, more model portfolios have moved away from defensive positions. This week, a trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio to sell  US treasury index, IUTIX, and buy Large equity fund, JLVIX, as IUTIX has fallen below top 5 ranks in the HSA ranking table. We have held IUTIX since beginning of September with a loss of 0.45%.