YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 8/21/2020

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Major indices ended mixed this week with communication and technology leading the charge while energy and banking sectors lagging behind. On the economy front, existing home sales and business activities ticked up while weekly unemployment claims went up unexpectedly. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.72% to record high of 3397, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.0% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.65%.

S&P 500 index reached all time high and stayed 9.2% above its 28 week EMA for another week. As the index is trading abnormally high above its trend line, our assessment of high market risk going forward remains.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/14/2020

Major indices eked out another positive week with S&P 500 index moved closer to the 3393 all-time high set in February. Value stocks outperformed growth stocks while utility sectors lagging the markets. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.64% to 3372, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.81% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.08%.

S&P 500 index is currently 9.2% above its 28 week exponential moving average far exceeding the 5% - 6% normal trading range. As observed in the weekly chart, the index suffered a severe plunge after breaking this comfort zone last time in February. With the extreme strong momentum, the index may keep continue to move higher but the higher it goes, the harder it will fall. It is prudent to start reducing market exposure at this juncture.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/31/2020

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy IGV

Major indices ended the week mixed with tech stocks rebounded strongly from last week due to strong quarterly earnings from Apple, Amazon.com and Facebook. Economic data released at the beginning of the week weighed in on investor sentiment as initial estimate of 2nd quarter GDP showed whopping 33% contraction and a pick-up in weekly jobless claims. Stalling of the new stimulus package at the congress also pushed general stocks down. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.73% to 3271, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.16% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.69%.

S&P 500 index continued to move side way for another week. The weekly range of the index is the same as last week, and the high of of the week did not break the high of the previous week. S&P 500 index is 7.3% above its 28 week moving average and caution is warranted if the index gets too much ahead of itself.

A trading signals occurs in ETF model portfolio this week as IBB continues to fall in the ETF momentum ranking table. IBB is replaced with Goldman Sachs Software Sector EFT, IGV.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/24/2020

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy ITB

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell IOO, Buy EWD

Stocks went down modestly with technology sectors leading the retreat. Increase in weekly jobless claim and escalation of US-China friction raised worries about the economy recovery. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.28% to 3215, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.76% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.33%.

S&P 500 index continued to move side way for another week. Even with the side way movement, the index is 6.1% above its 28 week moving average. In the past, a pull back or correction happened after the index is more than 5.5% above its tend line. The best scenario going forward is for the index to move side way and waiting for the tend line to catch up, while the worst scenario is for the index to keep moving higher and finally collapses severely like what has happened in March.

Two trading signals occurs in our model portfolios this week due to momentum ranking changes. IBB is replaced with ITB in sETF model portfolio as its average momentum index fell below 7th rank, and similarly IOO in iETF model portfolio is replaced with EWD.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/17/2020

Banks stocks kicked off earning report season with large decline in profit but investors seemed to look beyond that and focused on increased revenues from trading and underwriting activities. Encouraging vaccine development news from Moderna Therapeutics and AstraZeneca also boosted investors sentiment. Tech stocks experienced profit taking after reaching all time high and under performed the markets. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.25% to 3234, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.29% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.08%.

S&P 500 index continued to move side way with positive bias. The index has stayed above the 28 week EMA for 9 weeks since mid-May and its momentum indicator has been climbing higher. Withe the up-trend still intact, we expect the index to march higher, and hopefully not too fast or we will see severe pull-back ahead.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/10/2020

Investors' sentiment were majorly affected by worries about resurgent of CODV-19 virus outbreak and the optimism about the treatment and availability of the vaccine by year end. Tech stocks benefiting from remote working environment and led the markets higher. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.76% to 3185, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.96% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 4.01%.

S&P 500 index consolidated above its 28 week EMA with less volatility than previous 5 weeks. As the index is 6.2% above its trend line, it is encouraging to see the index taking a break to digest its gain with low volatility and wait for the trend line to catch up. As observed in the chart below, small positive candles (low volatility) above the trend line led to sustainable up tend, while large candles (high volatility) usually followed by corrections or severe pullbacks.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/3/2020

Positive economic news in employment data and pending home sales offset the concern about corona virus resurgence. In addition, encouraging vaccine development helped boosting investors sentiment and push stock prices higher. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 4.02% to 3130, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.25% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 4.62%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index