Fund rankings update, 8/27/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

With investors' worries about double dip recession, stocks continued their weakness this week. However, buyers stepped in Friday to close the week on a strong note. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1064 down 0.66%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.62%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 1.2% for the week.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past and hopefully it is as reliable this time. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. FEMKX is at $22.26, 3.9% below our phase price of $23.17. Its STO[15,1] currently stands at 75 so no action is needed.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00 08/02/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 08/02/10 $23.17

Fund rankings update, 8/20/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Bad economy news beat out strong company earning reports again this week. Investors still worried about the breakdown of the economy recovery. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1071 down 0.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.87%, while the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.29% for the week.

Technically, the S&P 500 index has been trading in a range and has a very strong resistance at the trend line level. As we can see in the chart below, the index has failed twice to break above the trend line in the past 2 months. It will take some heavy dose of good news to boost the index above its trend line.

Fund rankings update, 8/13/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

The Fed had spoken and confirmed that economy recovery has decelerated in the past 3 months. Although the Fed has indicated its willingness for a more accommodating money policy to prop up the economy, the investors' worry about the economy dipping back to recession still pulled the market downward. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1078 down 3.78%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 3.29%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 5.0% for the week.

From the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the index touched the trend line last week and went back down this week. The momentum (STO[15,1]) went up close to 50 but failed to climbed above the threshold this week. Both conditions need to be established for the trend to gain a stronger foothold. This year has turned out to be a difficult year for trend trading as no clear trend has emerged so far (notice the flat trend line since May!).

Fund rankings update, 8/6/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSLXX, Buy FSUTX

Stocks came out strong Monday due to better than expected company earning reports, but the worse than expected job report on Friday casted doubt to the economy recovery and dampened investors' enthusiasm. However, the strong momentum still carried the stocks to the up side. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1121 up 1.82%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.79%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.5% for the week.

The monthly chart of S&P 500 index shows that the index has climbed above the trend line again after staying below it for 3 months. From the monthly chart below, a similar situation happened during 1998 when the index briefly dipped below its trend line and resumed the up trend for another 24 months. Since the index move above its trend line again, we will change our position to buy side.

Fund rankings update, 7/30/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy EZA

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks struggled between strong company earnings and weak economy data the whole week, and ended the week with mix results. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1101 down 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 0.65% for the week. The resistance level of S&P 500 index at 1100 appears to be very hard to break. It will be interesting to see if S&P 500 index can break out on the up side decisively next week.

I have received information regarding changes in GM's 401k plan. Shares in the eight Fidelity mutual funds will be changed to a different class on August 25. These funds will have different ticker symbols but same investment strategies as the old ones. I have checked these funds out at yahoo.com and found that their price movements are the same as the old funds but the price may vary a bit. Here are the changes:

FCTNX-->FCNKX

FDIVX-->FDIKX

FEMKX-->FKEMX

FGRIX-->FGIKX

FDGRX-->FGCKX

FLPSX-->FLPKX

FMCSX-->FKMCX

FDVLX->FVLKX

Since the price movements of the new funds are the same as the old funds, I will still use the old funds in my rankings tables and use them as surrogates for the new ones.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past and hopefully it is as reliable this time. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. After holding cash for more than 2 months, FEMKX broke through its trend line last week and its STO[15,1] increases to 57 this week. Thus, a "buy" signal is issued.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00 08/02/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 08/02/10 $23.17

Fund rankings update, 7/23/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Strong company earnings boosted investors' confidence. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1102 up 3.55%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.24%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 4.15% for the week. It is encouraging to see the price climbed above the trend line again in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. However, we need to see the momentum indicator, STO[15,1], also climbs above 50 to declare the return of the up trend.

Fund rankings update, 7/16/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FRESX, Buy FNMIX

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CASH, Buy NAHAX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYR, Buy CASH

The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1064 down 1.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.98%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.79% for the week. Stocks have rallied for several days attracting investors to take positions, then they dropped sharply this Friday making investors feel like fools. From the weekly chart, the recent rally has caused the s&P 500 index to hit the trend line (resistance) at around 1100. However, it failed to break the trend line on the upside indicating that the down tend still prevails. The first sign of the reversal of a down trend is for the index to climb above its trend line.