YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 7/26/2019

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks reached another record high on better than expected second quarter GDP and company earnings. US second quarter GDP growth slowed down to 2.1% but 0.1% better than economists' expectation. Company earning growth also slowed to single digit on a yearly basis but stronger than street consensus. These economic data did not change the expectation of a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed's meeting next Wednesday. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3025 up 1.65%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.14% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.26% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index looks to be forming a rounded top and stays 5.4% above its 28 week moving average. Its momentum indicator is in the overbought region without sign of decreasing. We do not expect much movement from the index before the Fed meeting as this market has been driven by interest cut expectation. We will have clearer picture of the market direction after Fed's announcement next Thursday.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/19/2019

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy IAK
Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42627, Buy FCNTX

Stocks experienced higher volatility as companies started to report 2nd quarter earnings. Economic data during the week showed solid retail sale gain in June as well as better than expected growth in manufacturing activities. These positive economic data dampened investors' hope for Fed's rate cut at the end of July from 0.5% to 0.25 %. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2976 down 1.23%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.65% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.19% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

After breaking the 3000 psychological barrier S&P 500 failed to hold the position and closed down below 3000 at 2976 with the next support level at 2950. The pullback lowers the deviation of the index from its 28 week EMA to 4.1% from 5.7% last week. Notice that the index is currently higher than the peak of 2954 at the end of April, while the momentum indicator STO [15,1] currently at 94.5 is lower than the reading of 98 at that time. This divergence shows the taping off of the advancing momentum. While the index still posses an extreme high momentum and may continue its advance, the divergence is something worth to pay attention to.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/12/2019

Stocks advanced to record high encouraged by the dovish testimony from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell in front of House Financial Service Committee. The possibility of a 0.5% rate cut at the Fed's July 30-31 meeting has been greatly increased by his comment. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3013 up 0.78%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.52% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.01% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index has broken the psychological barrier of 3000 and reached the record high at 3013. On the daily chart (not shown), the index broke the bull flag pattern (a continuation candle stick pattern) and gapped up to reach the new high. I looks like the index will continue to advance higher on a short term basis. However in the weekly chart, the index is 5.7% above its 28 week exponential moving average. Remember the index was 10%, 4,8% and 5.9 % above its 28 week EMA before the respective sell-off in January 2018, October 2018 and May 2019. This rally is fueled by expectation of a rate cut and we may see a shake up once the rate cut is realized at end of July. The so call " Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" may apply in this case.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/5/2019

Markets closed early Wednesday and the whole Thursday in observation of Independence Day. All the major indices still managed to march higher in spite of the light trading volumes. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2990 up 1.65%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.21% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.94% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index closed solidly above its previous high and stands at 2990. However, the index is again more than 5% above its 28 week exponential moving average. Caution is needed in the next few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/28/2019

Trading signal occurs in SSPP timing model: Sell FOCPX, Buy FDEGX.
Trading signal occurs in iETF timing model: Sell EWN, Buy EWL.

Stocks were flat as investors waiting for interaction between Trump and Xi in G-20 meeting to gauge the progress of the trade talk between US and China. On the economy front, durable goods orders and manufacturing activities contacted more than expected while personal income and spending went up in May. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2941 down 0.29%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.45% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.32% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index took a break this past week but still close only 9 points below its 2950 resistance level. The momentum indicator STO[15,1] of the index is in the overbought region and heading higher. It is very likely that the index will continue its upward advance. However, this market has been driven largely by headline news and tweets in trade and geopolitical tension, and the direction of the market can change in an instant.

Two trading signals have been issued in the model portfolios this week. FOCPX, a small cap focused fund is being replaced with FDEGX, a large cap focused growth funds in SSPP model portfolio due to momentum ranking change. In the iETF model portfolio, Netherlands index fund, EWN, is being replaced with Switzerland index fund, EWL, due to momentum ranking change as well. Note that iETF model portfolio has not performed as well as other model portfolios due to higher volatility in the international index funds. Holding periods in the iETF model portfolio are generally shorter than other portfolios. Weekly momentum ranking system is trying to catch the intermediate-term up trend and needs longer holding period to reap the profit.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/21/2019

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks climbed sharply higher with S&P 500 index reached record high during the week. The strong rally was powered by Fed's statement after its policy meeting on Wednesday showing its willingness to cut rate if necessary to keep the economy expansion going. Geopolitical tension in middle east and news that Iran shooting down US military drone also pushed the oil prices and energy stocks higher. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2950 up 2.2%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.41% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.01% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

As displayed in the weekly chart, S&P 500 index reached a record of 2964 in mid-week and closed back down a bit at the the resistance level of 2950. This is the third time S&P 500 reached 2950 resistance level. The index did not fare well in the previous two times bumping against this resistance. The first time in Sept-Oct 2018, the index plunged 20 percent with a duration of 12 weeks, and the second time in April 2019, the index fell 8 percent for a duration of 5 weeks. Next couple of weeks will be critical in determining the direction of the stock markets. The up trend will continue if S&P 500 index can close solidly above 2950 making a higher high on the weekly chart. If the index fails again at this resistance level, we will see a prolong bear market in the very near future.

Notably, a trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model this week as stocks have been strong for the past four weeks. The momentum indicator STO[15,1] of FEMKX has climbed back above 50 this week and a buy signal was issued. The FEMKX timing model has consistently predict the intermediate term market direction in the past. It will be interesting to see how it performs this time.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/14/2019

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IGV, Buy ITB.

Stocks opened the week strong but fail to keep the momentum going and ended up flat. Energy prices experience high volatility this week. US government report showed large increase in oil inventory for the 2nd week on Wednesday causing a plunge in oil prices while news on Thursday about two oil tankers been attacked in Persian Gulf sending oil prices sharply higher. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2886 up 0.47%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.41% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.7% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index went up a bit higher carried by the upward momentum. The index gaped up Monday, and went up to 2910 mid-week but failed to march higher and ended up about where it started. The short body candle in the weekly chart shows the indecision in the market this past week. Our outlook remains the same as last week with slightly negative bias. However, if the index can consolidate above its 28 week moving average, there is a good opportunity go higher.

As interest rate comes down, housing and utility sectors goes up. sETF model portfolio issued a trading signal this week to buy into home construction sector fund, ITB, while moved away from software sector index fund, IGV. The model portfolio has held IGV for about 4 months with a gain of 3%. ITB has been the number 1 ranked fund in the past 6 weeks and looks like the high momentum will continue for a while. We will find out how it performs in the next couple months.