YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 10/25/2019

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42634, Buy 42626

Stocks rose for the third week with company earnings driving the market direction. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3022 up 1.22%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.9%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

After three weeks of advance, S&P 500 index closed at 3022 and poised to reach record high next week. As observed in the weekly chart, the momentum indicator of S&P 500 index is moving back above 80 and heading higher. We expect the index to move higher in the next few weeks.

A trading signal occurs in the RSP ranking table due to momentum ranking change. PIMCO CORE PLUS BOND (42634) has fallen below the holding threshold in the ranking table and we will replace it with the current number one rank fund, SS WRLD DEV EXUS IDX (42626), in RSP ranking table.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/18/2019

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWL, Buy EWT

Stocks closed modestly higher as companies started to report quarterly earnings. Positive earning surprise from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs boosted the markets on Tuesday while revenue miss from IBM weigh down on the market. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2986 up 0.54%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.17% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.4%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Short term technical picture of S&P 500 index stays about the same as last week but with momentum indicator turning a little bit upward. As the index is still above 28 week moving average, we may see a rally towards year end if the momentum indicator continue to rise.

A trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio this week to change position from Switzerland country fund (EWL) to Taiwan fund (EWT) due to momentum change.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/11/2019

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IHI, Buy ITB

Market sentiment was driven majorly by uncertainty in US-China trade negotiation this week. Rumors about US' plan on black listing Chinese companies and limiting US pension fund investment in China have plunged the major stock indices mid-week. However, signs of progress in the trade talk pushed the major indices higher at the end of the week. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2970 up 0.62%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.91% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.93%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index went down below its 28 week moving average in mid-week but ended up above the trend line support and even closed higher than it started. It is encouraging to see that this is the fourth time the index has successfully tested the 2940 support in the past 5 weeks and the second time the index went into 2940-2820 trading range and quickly recovered above it. If S&P 500 index can hold the 2940 level, we may see the index slowly changing its direction and move upwards.

A trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio this week to change position from medical device sector (IHI) to home construction (ITB) sector which is more favorable in lower interest rate environment.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/4/2019

Stocks plummeted midweek as weakness in manufacturing activities in Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index fueled investor's fear about economy slowdown. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 800 points in two days and reached the low of 26201 mid-day Thrusday. However, hope for interest rate cut from FED's October meeting turned the direction around and stocks recovered from large loss by the end of the week. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2952 down 0.33%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.92% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.54%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index went down for the 3rd week and is clearly in a downward decline. The index fell below the 2940 support and the 28 week moving average (trend line support) intra-week, but closed at 2950 above both support levels. As the momentum indicator of the index is also moving downwards, we expect the index to consolidate around its 28 week moving average for the next few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/28/2019

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDEGX, Buy FIUIX

Stocks fell for the second week as congress started the impeachment inquiry into President Trump, and mix signals from US-China trade talk. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2961 down 1.01%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.43% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.19%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

After an indecisive week, S&P 500 index closed lower and successfully test the upper resistance of the previous trading channel at 2940. The highs of momentum indicator of S&P 500 index is getting lower and its duration above 80 is getting shorter. It is likely that we will see the index consolidates and test the 2940 level again. Below 2940, there is a trend line support at 2900 and a stronger support at 2800. We will see how the markets play out in the next few weeks.

As both political and economic uncertainty grow, defensive utility sectors outperformed other industrial sectors. A trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio to move its position from growth fund, FDEGX, to utility fund, FIUIX. The model portfolio has held FDEGX less than 3 months with a loss of 1.9%.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/20/2019

An attack on Saudi Arabian oil facility knockout out half of the nation's oil output on September 14. Oil prices spiked up and remain high through out the week. On Wednesday, Fed cut interest rate by 0,25 point as expected. Stocks did not react much to these events and closed the week where it started. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2992 down 0.51%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.05% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decrease 0.72%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index started the week at 2996, and closed four points below at 2992. It traded between 3021 and 2978 within the trading range of previous week as observed in the weekly chart. It is clear that the index is taking a break to digest its gain after 3 weeks of advancement. The index is still above its 28 week moving average and its momentum is still moving higher. In our opinion, the uptrend is still intact while some minor consolidation may lie ahead.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/13/2019

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBSOX, Buy FSELX
Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks moved broadly higher as Trump administration and China officials took steps to de-escalate the trade tension. China revealed a list of US products that will be excluded from the new tariffs and White House quickly responded with delay of the 5% tariff increase on 250 billion Chinese goods for two weeks. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3007 up 0.96%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.57% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.91%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index opened the week with a cap up at 2988. It quickly pulled back and reached a intra-day low of 2957 on Tuesday testing the 2940-2950 support level. After successfully testing the support, the index marched higher and closed the week at 3007 within 1% of its record high. The momentum indicator of S&P 500 index has move back up above 80 and trending higher. We expect the index will continue it march upward.

Trading signals occur in our SELECT model portfolio as well as in our FEMKX timing system this week. The upward momentum of FBSOX has been slow down in the past few weeks and the model portfolio will replace FBSOX with the current number one rank fund, FSELX, in SELECT ranking table. For FEMKX timing system, the momentum indicator STO[15,1] has quickly rebounded from the low of 25, and a buy signal was issued as STO[15,1] crossed above 50 according to the trading rule.

Weekly chart of FEMKX