YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 3/11/2022

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FGRIX, Buy FICDX

Stocks closed lower as Russian invasion of Ukraine continued for another week. Elevated inflation due to surging commodity prices dominated investor sentiment while weekly jobless data came in inline with the expectation. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.88% to 4204, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.99%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.53%.

S&P 500 index closed at 4204, right above its 4200 support level. Its momentum indicator continued to trend downwards in the weekly chart below. Next week, the Fed will hold its open market committee meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. It is expected that the Fed will hike the interest rate a quarter point for the first time since 2018 to start its tightening cycle. It will be interesting to see how investors react to Fed's move and its projection for the rest of the year.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/4/2022

Stocks closed lower with heighten volatility due to Ukraine crisis. Technology, financials, consumer discretionary, and communication services sectors suffered the most while energy sector performed the best with oil prices shot up to $120 per barrel. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.27% to 4328, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.78%.

S&P 500 index made an attempt to reclaim the 28 week EMA mid-week, but failed to break above the trendline and closed the week lower than where it started. In order to complete the double bottom formation, the index has to break its 28 week EMA first and then 4600 resistance as we have discussed in the blog last week. We will continue to monitor the price action in the next few weeks.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/25/2022

Stocks experienced high volatility this past week as Russia launched broad-scaled invasion into Ukraine. Dow Jones Industrial Average went down more than 800 points Thursday morning, but closed the day in the positive territory and continued its rebound Friday. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.82% to 4384, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.06%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.08%.

S&P 500 index formed a hammer candle stick pattern this past week with short body and long wick as shown in the weekly chart below. It appears that the index has successfully tested the 4200 support level and is trying to form a "W" shape double bottom in the weekly chart. In order to complete the formation, the index needs to continue rebounding higher, breaking its 28 week EMA first and then the 4600 short term resistance level in the next few weeks. We will continue to monitor the development and adjust the portfolio positions accordingly.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/18/2022

Stocks closed lower for the second consecutive week as worries of Russian's imminent invasion to Ukraine and the coming rate hikes due to high inflation prevailed. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.58% to 4348, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.90%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.76%.

S&P 500 index has closed below its 28 week EMA for the fifth week. Its momentum indicator STO[15,1] is still above the over sold region but heading downward. It is likely that the index will retest its 4200 support level around mid-March when the first rate hike occurs. At that time, the best scenario is for the index to successfully test the support, form a double bottoms and climb above the 28 week EMA to resume its uptrend. However, if the index fails to hold or rebound from the support, we will see it plunging lower and will have a pro-long market down turn.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/11/2022

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell VFIAX, Buy PCRIX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGN, Buy IYE

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell IOO, Buy EZA

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy 05087

Stocks headed lower as higher than expected annual inflation of 7.5% triggered the fear of more aggressive interest rate hikes from the FED, and plunged the stocks lower at the end of the week. Imminent treat of Russian invasion to Ukraine also contributed to the sell-off on Friday. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.82% to 4418, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.0%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.18%.

S&P 500 index struggled to break above its 28 week EMA midweek and closed below its trend line for the fourth week. As shown in the weekly chart below, the index has reached the high of 4600 in the last two weeks but ended up below the EMA each time. With the declining momentum, we expect the index to continue staying below its trend line and likely to retest its recent low of 4200. Our market outlook remains the same as last week that this pullback likely will last a few more weeks into March.

Four trading signals were issued this week due to heavy sector rotation. All of our model portfolio holdings have now been moved to either defensive or anti-inflation type of funds. Looking back at the trading logs, the first bearish signal for this market pullback was issued in FEMKX timing system on 11/29 last year. At that time, the S&P 500 index is still above its 28 week EMA, but the FEMKX, which tracks the small cap index closely, has turned bearish and gave an early signal to take up defensive position. The 21 month long bull run (April, 2020 - Jan, 2022) has come to an end and it remains to be seen if this pullback will turn into a prolong bearish decline.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/4/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FRESX, Buy FGRIX

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy IEO

All major indices continued their rebound for the second week under heighten volatility as more than 100 companies reported their 4th quarter earnings over the week. Facebook (Meta) saw its stock price falling more than 20% Thursday after disappointing earning report, while Amazon stock rose 13.5% rewarded by its better than expected quarterly earnings Friday. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.55% to 4500, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.05%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.38%.

In the weekly chart below, S&P 500 rebounded and climbed above its 28 week EMA in midweek but still closed the week a few points below the EMA. The momentum indicator STO[15,1] of the index is still declining and heading toward the over sold region. If the index can not break the 28 week EMA next week, we will see it retesting the 4200 support. Our market outlook remains the same that this pull back likely will last a few more weeks into March.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/28/2022

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSELX, Buy FSENX

All major indices recovered a bit from large losses the previous week as the volatility hit the highest level since the pandemic. Fear of rate hike and high inflation still dominated investors' sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.77% to 4431, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.34%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.01%.

S&P 500 fell to 4200 support level mid week and rebounded at the end of the week to form a hammer candle pattern. If the index can hold the 4200 support for a couple of weeks and climb back above 28 week moving average, we may see the end of the correction. This pull back will last a few more weeks as S&P 500 index still closed below its 28 week EMA despite the rebound and its momentum indicator STO[15,1] fell below 50 and continued heading downward.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index