Fund Rankings Update, 12/26/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy FDSCX

U.S. stocks rallied broadly during the holiday-shortened week, lifting the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to fresh record highs.  Market sentiment was bolstered by the report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Tuesday, showing that the US economy expanded more than expected, with the 3rd quarter GDP growing at a rate of 4.3% well above the consensus estimate of 3%. Elsewhere, the Conference Board reported that U.S. consumer confidence slid for the fifth month in December as the Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 89.1, well below the estimate of 91.5.  Investors, however,  largely look past the consumer data.  For the week, the S&P 500 jumped 1.4% to close at 6929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite index advanced 1.22%.

The S&P 500 has successfully broken through its 3-week consolidation pattern, securing a record close at 6,929 this week. By surpassing the critical 6,920 resistance level, the index has cleared the way for further gains. Should the 'Santa Claus Rally' maintain this momentum and hold 6,920 as new support next week, we anticipate a continued upward trajectory toward the 7,200 milestone.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/19/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks went largely stagnant this week, with major indices delivering mixed performance. The small-cap and industrial sectors, which led the market the prior week, underperformed this week, while the tech sectors staged a comeback. On the economic data front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level in over four years, while the inflation rate(CPI) unexpectedly cooled to 2.7% in November.   For the week, the S&P 500 nudged up 0.1% to close at 6834, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.67%, and the Nasdaq Composite index went up 0.48%.

The S&P 500 index remained range-bound for the third week, consolidating near the upper boundary of the flat trading channel. The index is currently bounded by the overhead resistance at 6920 and supported by the 28-week exponential moving average at 6526.  As we enter the holiday-shortened Christmas week, all eyes are on whether a "Santa Claus Rally" will materialize to drive the index toward new year-end highs. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 12/12/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYW, Buy IBB

Major indices closed the week mixed after the Fed cut the interest rate by 0.25%. The small-cap and industrial sectors outperformed the broader market, while the tech sectors experienced a slump. The focus of the week lies on the Fed's policy meeting, which concluded with a 025% cut as expected. However, the Fed's statement after the meeting indicated only one more cut coming in the next year, which weighed on investors' sentiment.  For the week, the S&P 500 declined 0.63% to close at 6827, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite index fell 1.62%.

Despite a Federal Reserve rate cut, the S&P 500 was unable to sustain its push, peaking at 6903 before finishing the week at 6827. The index failed to break the critical resistance level identified last week at the previous high of 6920. The next two weeks are crucial: if the index cannot close above 6920, we anticipate a pullback to test support at 6520 and the 28-week Exponential Moving Average at 6503. A breach below the established support structure would confirm a trend reversal. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 12/5/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks opened the first week of December higher, with the Tech sector leading the way amid investors' hope for a rate cut in the Fed's December 9 meeting. Economic data released during the week showed that growth is softening.  On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a Purchase Managers' Index (PMI) of 48.2 for November, down from 48.7 in October (PMI readings below 50% indicate contraction, while readings above 50% signal expansion). On Wednesday, Non-Farm employment data showed that private sector payrolls decreased by 32,000 in November, well below the estimated increase of 5000.  However, positive news came from tame inflation data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index ( the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) rose 0.3% month over month in September, in line with August’s reading. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, also in line with the prior month.  With the backdrop of soft economic growth and tame inflation, all eyes are on the Fed's rate policy action in its meeting next week.  For the week, the S&P 500 marched 0.31% higher to close at 6870, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite index advanced 0.91%.

The S&P 500 index concluded the week slightly higher at 6870, as market participants await the crucial Federal Reserve policy meeting this coming week. The weekly chart below shows the index facing immediate resistance at its previous high of 6920, and the key support at its previous low of 6521. The index's movement next week is critical in determining its medium-term trajectory. A  Fed rate cut, if announced as expected by analysts, is expected to provide the necessary catalyst for the index to decisively break through the 6920 resistance and resume its recent uptrend. However, failure to receive the expected rate policy could lead to a significant market rejection at the resistance level and trigger a trend reversal. We will monitor these developments closely. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/28/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stock markets rebounded sharply higher this holiday-shortened week, as several Fed officials' dovish comments and weak economic data raised hope for a rate cut in the Fed's December 9 meeting. Released economic data showed the September producer price index (PPI) rose 0.3%, in line with expectations, and the core PPI rose only 0.1%, better than the estimated 0.2%.  The U.S. retail sales on the other hand,  increased by 0.2% in September, down from 0.6% in August and below the estimate of 0.4%. The tame inflation data and weak sales data have increased the probability of a 0.25% rate cut in the Fed's December 9 meeting to 86%, from 70% a week earlier.  For the week, the S&P 500 jumped 3.73% higher to close at 6849, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 3.18%, and the Nasdaq Composite index shot up 4.91%.

The S&P 500 index has fully recovered from last week's losses and is now challenging its all-time record high of 6920. This level, along with the 28-week EMA support of 6450, is the two critical short-term levels to watch now. For a bullish "V" shape recovery scenario: A breakout and close above 6920 will confirm the recovery and signal the continuation of the upward trend. A preferred buying entry would be to wait for the index to break the 6920 high, then recede back to test the EMA support level or the previous swing low before resuming its climb. For a bearish scenario: A failure to break above the 6920 resistance and a subsequent drop below the key support at 6450 would signal a bearish pullback.  A downside breach of 28-week EMA would confirm a bearish pullback, which establishes the level as a good short-term selling entry.  As the momentum of the index has regained its strength, the bullish scenario remains the higher probability outcome, though caution is warranted for a potential short-term consolidation due to the overbought reading.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

  

Fund Rankings Update, 11/21/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell ITA, Buy IBB

Stock markets finished the week sharply lower, driven by increasing concerns over stretched AI stock valuations and the sustainability of massive tech investments.  A major focus was the NVIDIA earnings report released after-market on Wednesday. Despite the chipmaker posting better-than-expected revenue and earnings with positive forward guidance, its stock price experienced significant intraday volatility, ultimately closing 3.15% lower after an initial surge on Thursday. The mixed reaction highlighted investor anxiety regarding the broader AI boom. On the economic front, the delayed September jobs report showed the US economy added 119,000 jobs, exceeding estimates. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest level in nearly four years, suggesting a cooling in the labor market.   For the week, the S&P 500 finished 1.95% lower to close at 66024, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.91%, and the Nasdaq Composite index slid 2.74%.

On the weekly chart below, the S&P 500 index continued its pullback, posting a weekly loss of 1.95% . The index has dropped significantly, now trading below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time since April, and is currently sitting near its 100-day EMA support level. This decline brings the index closer to its next key support levels, including the 28-week EMA around 6400 and the 200-day EMA around 6300. We view this current move as a healthy consolidation phase, digesting the rapid, uninterrupted gains seen since April. Given the shrinking upside momentum and increased volatility this month, this consolidation may persist for a few more weeks. We recommend patiently awaiting a clearer setup before looking for new buying opportunities.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/14/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FTRNX, Buy FEMKX

Stocks closed the week mixed, driven by a tug-of-war between positive policy news and renewed monetary concerns. The major blue-chip indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index, eked out modest gains, largely fueled by the news on Wednesday that the US Federal Government Shutdown—the longest in history—officially ended.  However, this optimism was significantly tempered by hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials later in the week. These statements cooled expectations for another interest rate cut in December, weighing heavily on the rate-sensitive Nasdaq Composite and small-cap indices, which both lost ground.  For the week, the S&P 500 finished 0.08% higher to close at 6734, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.34%, while the Nasdaq Composite index slid 0.45%.

The S&P 500 index was noncommittal, consolidating within the range of the previous week.  The index initially attempted to reclaim the lost ground from the previous week but failed to challenge the recent all-time high of 6920 and retreated from 6850.   Although the selling pressure intensified later of the week, the index successfully defended the 50-EMA support around 6700 on Friday.  The S&P 500 is currently at a critical technical juncture, holding onto its longer-term uptrend by defending the 50-day EMA. The next week's trading will be crucial to see if buyers can step in, pushing the index back towards resistance, or if the recent selling pressure breaks this key technical support.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index