Fund Rankings Update, 4/10/2026

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks closed sharply higher for the second week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed the first tangible signs of de-escalation. While early-week trading remained choppy, reports of a two-week ceasefire framework and continued negotiations sparked a massive relief rally later in the week. Economic data released this week also provided a much-needed "goldilocks" signal; on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that March inflation came in largely in line with expectations. While consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in nearly four years—driven primarily by the lagged effects of the energy surge—the core readings suggested that underlying inflation remains on a cooling trajectory.  The labor market also showed signs of stabilization after the volatility seen in February. While Federal Reserve officials maintained a "wait-and-see" approach regarding interest rate cuts, the market interpreted the cooling core inflation data as a sign that the Fed’s "soft landing" remains achievable despite recent shocks. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 3.54% to close at 6,816, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.04%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 4.68%.

The S&P 500 index underwent a dramatic technical reversal in the last two weeks, erasing the bearish breakdown seen in mid-March. By closing at 6,816, the index decisively reclaimed its 28-week EMA (6682).  This "V-shaped" recovery suggests that the late-March lows in the 6,300s may have marked a meaningful bottom, though the index remains in a broader consolidation pattern. To signal the resumption of the upward trajectory, the index has to close above the 7000 psychological resistance, while the 28-week EMA has now turned from resistance to support. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/3/2026

Fund rankings are not available this week due to my travel. 

Fund Rankings Update, 3/27/2026

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 05084, Buy 42635

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSELX, Buy FSENX

Stocks closed sharply lower this week, marking the fifth consecutive losing streak for the major averages—the worst such stretch since the onset of the current geopolitical conflict. Anxiety regarding the disruption of global energy supplies intensified as crude oil prices continued their ascent with no clear resolution in sight for the war in the Middle East. Economic data and central bank signaling provided little relief to investors; following last week’s FOMC decision to hold rates steady, a growing consensus emerged this week that the Federal Reserve may only deliver a single interest rate cut in 2026. This "higher-for-longer" outlook, coupled with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirming Q4 2025 GDP growth of just 1.4%, has reignited fears of a stagflation environment. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.12% to close at 6,368, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.23%.

The S&P 500 index underwent a significant technical breakdown this week, trading 5% below its 28-week Exponential Moving Average. By closing at 6,368.85, the index has moved into a "bearish phase," characterized by a persistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The index is now trading well below all its major short- and medium-term EMAs, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the downside. The index is currently testing the 6,365 support zone, which represents the lows seen last September. If this level fails to hold on high volume, the next significant support floor sits near the 6,100 level, the lows from last summer.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 3/20/2026

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed lower for the fourth consecutive week due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and resulting high oil prices.  The Federal Reserve held the interest rate unchanged after concluding its policy meeting on Wednesday while expressing its concern about the energy shock that will cause trouble for inflation expectations.  In addition, the producer price index (PPI) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) rose 0.7% in February, up from 0.5% in January indicating the sticky inflation situation.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.90% to close at 6,506, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 2.07%.

The S&P 500 index accelerated its downward slide this week after closing below its 28-week EMA last week, and its weekly momentum indicator sits firmly in the oversold region. By closing at 6,506, the index is now trading well below the critical 200-day EMA, which currently stands at 6594.  The negative bias remains firmly in place as the index continues to display lower highs and lower lows behavior on the weekly chart. To stabilize the current decline, the index must first hold the 6,500 psychological support level and reclaim the 6,600 200-day EMA level.  If the index fails to hold the 6500 level, it may accelerate its downward spiral toward the 6100 level, which represents the previous high reached in February last year. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 3/13/2026

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDSCX, Buy FICDX

Stocks closed lower for the third consecutive week as investors grappled with geopolitical friction and stubbornly firm inflation data.  Anxiety regarding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices toward the $100 mark and weighed heavily on sentiment. While a late-week stabilization effort on Friday helped the market claw back some of Thursday's steep losses, the general mood remains prevailingly negative. Economic data released this week added to the defensive tone. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in February, with the annual rate holding at 2.4%. While not a "hot" print, the stickiness in shelter and service costs—coupled with a 0.5% jump in the Producer Price Index (PPI)—suggests that the "last mile" of inflation remains a challenge for the Federal Reserve.  The labor market also continues to show signs of cooling from its 2025 highs. Following last week’s disappointing payroll contraction, weekly jobless claims released on Thursday came in at 212,000, indicating a steadying but less robust employment environment. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.60% to close at 6,632, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.99%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 1.26% as high-growth tech remained sensitive to rising Treasury yields.

The S&P 500 index continued its downward trajectory this week, decisively breaking below the 28-Week EMA and 6,700 level before finding a temporary floor at 6,632. The overall trend has turned bearish, with the immediate support sitting at the 6600 psychological mark, which aligns with the 200-day moving average.  A failure to hold this "line in the sand" would open the door for a deeper correction toward the 6,450 level.  To shift the current negative bias, the index needs to reclaim the 6,800 level.  A close back above the 20-day EMA is essential to signal a potential trend reversal.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/6/2026

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks closed sharply lower this week as geopolitical instability and disappointing labor data sent investors fleeing from risk assets. Anxiety regarding an escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on global energy supplies dominated sentiment early in the week. However, the primary catalyst for Friday's sell-off was a shocking February jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which revealed the US economy shed 92,000 jobs—far missing expectations of a 59,000-job gain. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%, while previous months' data saw downward revisions. This cooling of the labor market overshadowed earlier resilience and led to a broad-based retreat across nearly all sectors. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.02% to close at 6,740.02, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 3.01%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 1.24% as the "AI trade" faced renewed scrutiny.

The S&P 500's technical structure has weakened significantly this week as the index failed to hold the critical 6800 support level.  By closing at 6,740.02, the index finished below its 100-day EMA for the first time in over three months, signaling a potentially significant shift in the medium-term trend.  If the index can not successfully defend its 28-week EMA at 6720, it may accelerate its downfall to retest  the 200-day moving average at 6500.   

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/27/2026

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed mostly lower this week as a sharp rotation out of high-growth technology weighed on investor sentiment. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to eke out a marginal gain, the broader market struggled with renewed anxiety regarding the "disrupted nature" of AI and its potential to undercut the profitability of legacy software and cybersecurity firms. Economic data released this week painted a picture of a cooling, yet stable, economy. On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims totaled 212,000, slightly above the previous week’s revised level but still indicative of labor market resilience.  Inflation data, however, provided a mixed signal; while January’s CPI had previously shown signs of cooling, recent wholesale data suggests price pressures remain "sticky" in certain service sectors as PPI and core PPI went up significantly higher last month. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.45% to close at 6,878.41, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished essentially flat with a 0.03% gain, and the Nasdaq Composite bore the brunt of the tech sell-off, decreasing 0.9%.

The S&P 500 index returned to its sideways consolidation pattern this week, failing to hold the gains seen in the previous session and slipping back below the 6,900 level. The index is currently trapped within a 6800 -7000 channel. To regain upward momentum, the index must decisively close above the 7000 psychological resistance level and the 20-day EMA.  A failure to break this level may lead to prolonged range-bound trading. On the other hand, the 6,800 level continues to act as the floor. A breakdown below this support—and specifically a close under the 100-day EMA—could trigger a deeper corrective move toward the 6,700 or even 6,500 measured move targets. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index