Fund Rankings Update, 6/27/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

The S&P 500 advanced to a new high as tension deescalated in the Middle East and dovish comments about interest rates from from several Fedderal Reserves members. Data showed inflation ticked modestly higher in May. Economic data released during the week showed the inflation is tamed while economy is growing at a slower rate.  The core personal consumption expenditures ( Core PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.2% month over month and 2.7% year over year in May, slightly ahead of consensus estimates.  The Flash U.S. Composite Output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released Monday came in at 52.8, down slightly from May’s reading of 53.0, indicating that the US economy continued to grow at the end of the second quarter.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 3.44% to 6173, the Dow Jones gained 3.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 4.25%.

The S&P 500 exhibited a strong bullish performance this week, reaching a new all-time high of 6173 on Friday.  This upward trajectory indicates robust buying pressure and a clear continuation of the overarching uptrend. For the next couple of weeks, the technical outlook remains to the upside, with the immediate target being the next psychological level of 6200. While a minor pullback or consolidation could occur to digest these gains, any such dips are likely to be met with strong buying interest, as long as key support levels, such as the 10-day EMA and the 6100 former resistance (now support), hold firm. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 6/20/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

The S&P 500 closed almost flat this week as tension escalating in the Middle East.  All eyes were on the interest rate decision from the Fed policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed leaves the the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5% while expects to make two interest rate cuts through the remainder of the year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller made comments suggesting the central bank could cut rates in July in an interview Friday morning, which boosted investor sentiment early in the day.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.15% to 5967, the Dow Jones gained 0.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.21%.

The S&P 500 declined a bit closing the week below its 10-day EMA but holding above its 20-day EMA. The failure to reclaim the psychological 6000 level and testing its 20-day EMA suggest a short-term pause or minor pullback from its recent ascent while the index remains in a broader uptrend, holding above its 28-week EMA.  As discussed in the last blog, should the 20-day EMA (currently at 5948) fail to hold as support, the index could fall to its 28-week EMA at 5773. Conversely, if the index manages to stay above 5948, we could anticipate it to break its previous high of 6147.  The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the broader uptrend reasserts itself.

 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/13/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed modestly lower, as the news that Israel conducted a preemptive air attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders sank the investors' sentiment and turned the positive markets negative on the last trading day of the week.   All eyes were on the inflation data last week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% month over month, down from 0.2% in April, and prices rose 2.4% yearly, up from April’s  2.3%, but below the expectation for a 2.5% increase. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.8% yearly, unchanged from April and a tick below the estimate for a 2.9% increase. The cooler-than-expected inflation data had driven down the Treasury yields and provided support to investors' sentiment early in the week. The S&P 500 fell 0.39% to close at 5976, the Dow Jones lost 1.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 0.63% for the week.

The S&P 500 closed the week at 5976, pulling back from the psychological resistance level of 6000. Despite this retreat, the overall uptrend remains intact, with the index holding above its 28-week exponential moving average (EMA) and maintaining strong underlying momentum. In the short term, however, we might see some weakness. The index broke below its 10-day EMA on Friday and appears to be testing the 20-day EMA, which is currently around 5927. Should the 20-day EMA fail to hold as support, the index could fall to its 28-week EMA at 5760. Conversely, if the index manages to stay above 5927, we could anticipate it breaking its previous high of 6147. The coming week will be crucial in determining whether short-term weakness prevails or if the broader uptrend reasserts itself.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/6/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks advanced higher, with the technology sector and small-cap stocks outperforming the broader market.   Investors' sentiment was boosted by positive earnings from AI-related companies and employment data.  Job data reported by the Labor Department showed the US added 139,000 jobs in May, down from 147,000 in April but better than the 130,000 expected.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.5% to close at 6000, the Dow Jones gained 1.17%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 2.18%.

The S&P 500 index broke out from the consolidation pattern in the last three weeks and closed above both the previous high of 5968 and the psychological resistance of 6000. As discussed in the last blog, the index has not only broken the high of last week's inside bar but also the previous high with strong momentum. This bullish development indicates that the index is marching toward a new all-time high.   

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/30/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSTCX, Buy FSDAX.

Trading signal occurs in the ETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy EWW.

Stocks closed modestly higher as investors grappled with uncertainty surrounding the enforcement of President Trump's tariff policy. This confusion stemmed from a ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade and the administration's subsequent appeal.  On the economic front, consumers received some good news as inflation eased in April. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation gauge, rose by 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.7% in March. Adding to the positive sentiment, the Consumer Confidence Index saw a significant jump in May, climbing 12.3 points to 98. Separately, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment remained flat in April, putting an end to four consecutive months of steep declines.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.88% to close at 5911, the Dow Jones gained 1.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 2.01%.

The S&P 500 index formed an inside bar candle stick pattern this week above its 28-week exponential moving average with strong momentum.   The underlying bullish trend remains intact as the index has consolidated side way for three weeks above its critical support level following the recent sharp rebound. The current technical setup leans towards continued strength after this period of consolidation.  A breakout above the high of this week's inside bar and subsequently the previous high of 5968 would signal renewed bullish momentum and potentially lead to a new all-time high.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/23/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell IYK, Buy ITA

Stocks took a breather after a big surge last week.  Investors' sentiment was weighed on as the yields of US treasuries shot up after a downgrade from the credit agency Moody at the end of the prior week. President Trump's announcement to slap a 50% tariff on goods from the EU also added to the slide of the stock market. The S&P 500 lost 2.61% to close at 5802, the Dow Jones fell 2.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 2.47% for the week.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/16/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the HSA model portfolio: Sell PCRIX, Buy RIGGX.

Stocks surged this week, fueled by news of a 90-day tariff rollback agreement between the U.S. and China.  Adding to the positive sentiment, the BLS reported lower-than-expected April inflation, with core CPI at 0.2% and CPI rising 2.3% year-over-year. The PPI also unexpectedly declined, raising investor hopes for a more accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy. Consequently, the S&P 500 soared 5.277% to close at 5958, the Dow Jones gained 3.41%, and the Nasdaq Composite leaped 7.15% for the week.

The S&P 500 index shot up and closed well above its 28-week exponential moving average with strong momentum, signaling the resumption of its uptrend.  With the upward and strong momentum, the index may continue its advance with the resistance levels at 6000 (the psychological resistance) and 6150 (the previous high). However, the index has rebounded more than a thousand points in a short six-week period and may be due for a pullback to digest its lofty gains.  Should a pullback occur, the support level to watch is the 28-week exponential moving average at  5703.  Continue monitoring support and resistance levels will be crucial in determining the index's next direction. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index