Fund Rankings Update, 5/9/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks took a breather this week, with major indices closing the week flat. Signs of the trade de-escalation emerged as US and Chinese representatives plan to meet in Switzerland this weekend for trade discussions. On Thursday, the Trump administration also announced the first trade deal under "reciprocal tariffs" with the United Kingdom, signaling more deals will come.  On Wednesday, the Fed announced that it will keep the interest rate steady and continue its wait-and-see attitude, citing the uncertainty of the economic outlook from higher tariffs.    For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.47% to close at 5659, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite notched down 0.27%.

The S&P 500 index ended the past week marginally lower, settling beneath its critical 28-week exponential moving average at 5684 and forming an indecisive weekly candle.  The behavior of the index is being closely monitored as a breakout and hold above this critical EMA would signal a resumption of the uptrend, whereas a failure to overcome it could precipitate a sharp downward move.   

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/2/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42626, Buy 05069.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.

Fueled by ongoing trade war de-escalation and strong tech earnings, major indices climbed for a second consecutive week. Despite a 0.3% contraction in Q1 US GDP—the first since 2022, driven by decreased consumer and government spending—the economy showed resilience with April's robust job growth of 177,000, exceeding the anticipated 135,000. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2.92% to close at 5686, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 3.42%.

Having closed the week at 5686, the S&P 500 finds itself precisely at its critical 28-week exponential moving average. As previously highlighted, this level represents a significant resistance point that will likely dictate the index's near-term trajectory. Notably, the S&P 500 experienced rejection at this same EMA during the week of March 24th. Looking ahead to the next couple of weeks, a decisive break and sustained trading above 5686 could signal the end of the recent bearish pullback and the potential resumption of a bullish trend. Conversely, another rejection at this EMA could lead to a downward move, with a potential retest of the 5000 support level. The behavior of the index around this key moving average will be closely monitored over the coming two weeks for directional clues.   

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/25/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Major indices advanced higher as news of de-escalation of trade tension between US and China were reported, along with likely trading agreements with other countries.  President Trump's clarification of not firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell also provided support to investors' positive sentiment.   For the week, the S&P 500 jumped 4.59%, closing at 5525, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.48%, and the Nasdaq Composite shot up 6.73%.

The S&P 500 index began the week with a decline but found its footing at the round-number 5100 support level, staging a strong four-day rally. The index closed at 5525, slightly breaching the 5500 resistance mark. Should the S&P 500 maintain levels above 5500, the 28-week exponential moving average (EMA) at 5686 emerges as the next resistance. It's worth noting that the index already faced rejection once at this EMA during the week of March 24, as seen on the weekly chart. Given that the S&P 500 remains below this significant EMA, our outlook remains bearish, anticipating a potential rejection at the EMA and a subsequent retest of the previous low around 5000.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 4/17/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell IXG, Buy IYK

Trading signal occurs in the iETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy EWP

Major indices closed the holiday-shortened week lower as tariff concerns lingered. President Trump escalated the trade war with China by increasing the tariffs to 245% on Chinese goods and adding new restrictions on AI chips exporting to China, which greatly impacted Nvidia and AMD.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, closing at 5282, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 2.66%, and the Nasdaq Composite gave up 2.62%.

Following a strong bounce, the S&P 500 has settled above the midpoint of its prior trading range. However, the index remains firmly within a bearish trend, trading considerably below its 28-week exponential moving average. Furthermore, its momentum indicator continues to register below the neutral 50 level. As we highlighted in last week's blog, it's wise to remain patient and await crucial buy signals, specifically a "W" bottom formation and a break above the EMA resistance. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 4/11/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed the volatile week higher as President Trump announced a pause of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days at the last minute on Wednesday to allow for negotiations.  However, the trade war with China escalated as China retaliated with 125% tariff on US goods against US's 145%.  The inflation data for March also provided comfort to investors. The core CPI rose 0.1% from February, the lowest in nine months.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 5.7%, closing at 5363, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 4.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 7.29%.

The S&P 500 experienced a sharp rebound after hitting a low of 4835, closing the week at 5363. This followed a two-stage decline from 6147 (first leg to 5504, second leg to 4835). The index's close above the key 5000 support level, along with its momentum indicator exiting oversold territory, suggests potential trading within the 5000-5500 range. Aligning with last week's analysis, a "W" bottom formation and a break above EMA resistance will be key signals for long-term buying opportunities.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Updatge, 4/4/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy FIEUX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBMPX, Buy FSTCX

Stocks closed sharply lower as President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs against the world on Wednesday.  The harsher-than-expected move triggered fears of retaliation from other countries, as well as higher inflation and economic recession.  While Wall Street is now looking for the Fed's help to counter the impact of tariffs by lowering the interest rates, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, still wants to wait for more clarity before adjusting the money policy.  For the week, the S&P 500 gave up 9.08%, closing at 5074, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 7.86%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 10.02%.

The S&P 500 index plunged Thursday and Friday after President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday, after the market closed.   In the weekly chart below, the index closed below its 28-week exponential moving average the week of March 3 and rebounded before reaching the low of 5504. The index tested the EMA resistance of 5787 during the rebound last week (week of March 24) and experienced severe rejection. The index then fell sharply lower after breaking the the previous low of 5504.  As investors quite oftern overreact to the panic selling, the index may continue to fall to the previous high support at 4600 if it can not hold the current 5000 pyshological support.  From past experience, it is better  to wait before taking trading action at this juncture: Wait for rebound and sell when the index receives rejection at EMA resistance, or wait for "W" shape bottom and breaking above EMA resistance to buy into the market.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/28/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy 42626

Stocks closed broadly lower on inflation and tariff concerns.  On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 25% levy on all non-U.S.-made automobiles, which rattled investors' confidence. Adding oil to the fire, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% in February, up from January’s reading of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, the core PCE rose 2.8%, remaining well above the Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2%.  The S&P 500 fell by 1.53% for the week, closing at 5580. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.96%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.59%. 

 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index