Fund Rankings Update, 11/7/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks took a pause in their advance this past week, logging their first weekly loss in four weeks despite the previous week's positive momentum. The market, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq, pulled back from recent records amid jitters over stretched valuations and the sustainability of the AI rally. The Federal Government Shutdown also weighed in on investors' sentiment as it has reached its longest, with no end in sight. The impact of the shutdown has started to affect people's daily lives, notably the reduction in passenger flights due to a shortage of air controllers.  For the week, the S&P 500 finished 1.63% lower to close at 6728, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.21%, and the Nasdaq Composite index fell 3.04%.

The S&P 500 pulled back significantly this past week, failing to maintain the 6900 level it had successfully reached in the previous week. The index's sharp rejection at the 6900 signaled a potential shift in the short-term technical landscape. The S&P 500 now appears to be correcting from the overbought conditions noted in the prior analysis. The focus has now shifted to finding a near term stable support at the 6650-6700 area for buyers to defend and prevent a full reversal of the recent uptrend.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/31/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWP, Buy EWY

Stocks continued their upward march this week, spearheaded by strong performances in the large-cap and technology sectors. Investor sentiment was buoyed by several key events: the Federal Reserve's expected 0.25% cut to the Fed fund rate on Wednesday, and a modest trade agreement between the US and China reached at the APEC summit, providing temporary relief. Additionally, five of the "Magnificent Seven" companies reported positive quarterly earnings, with their continuous capital expenditure on AI alleviating investor concerns about a potential AI bubble. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 0.71% to close at 6,840, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.75%, and the Nasdaq Composite index surged 2.24%.

The S&P 500 successfully tagged the 6900 technical target during the week, although it closed marginally below this key resistance level. The index is now navigating an area of extreme overbought conditions, facing strong resistance in the 6900-7000 range. Given this technical setup, the market is highly likely to enter a period of consolidation or sideways trading over the next few weeks before buyers can generate sufficient momentum to resume the broader uptrend.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/24/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks extended their gains this week, driven by positive investor sentiment following encouraging inflation figures released on Friday.  The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August registered at 3.0%, a favorable outcome that came in below the expected 3.1%.  Furthermore, the month-over-month core CPI also surprised to the downside, clocking in at 0.2% for August, which was lower than consensus estimates of 0.3%.  This tame inflation data has boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement a rate cut as early as next week.  For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.91% to close at 6791, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 2.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.31%.

The S&P 500 has successfully recovered the losses incurred two weeks ago, closing at yet another record high. This decisive move confirms the continuation of the current rally, setting the stage for a push toward the 6900 target. With the index holding firmly above the 28-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and demonstrating exceptionally strong momentum, our positive outlook for the S&P 500 remains firmly intact.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 10/17/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks rebounded from the sell-off last Friday.  Reduced trade tension between the US and China, and dovish comments from Fed officials appeared to calm investors' anxiety.  Better-than-expected earnings reports from the banking sector also boosted market sentiment.    For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.7% to close at 6664, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 1.56%, and the Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.14%.

The S&P 500 is currently in a sideways consolidation, signaled by the weekly candle being completely engulfed by the previous week's.  The next weekly candle is critical to the index's immediate direction.  A close above this week's high confirms a continued rally toward the 6900 target, while a close below this week's low indicates a pullback to the 6400 or 6200 support levels.  However, as long as the index holds above its 28-week exponential moving average, any pullback should be viewed as a healthy, short-term pause in the uptrend.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/10/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the FEMKX timing model: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks experienced a large decline on the last day of the week as investors were concerned about a prolonged government shutdown and escalation of the trade war after President Trump announced massive tariffs on China due to its rare earth export restrictions.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.43% to close at 6552, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 2.73%, and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 2.53%.

The S&P 500 was rejected significantly at the 6750 resistance level. Its momentum indicator has exited the overbought zone and is trending lower. Failure to immediately bounce back next week suggests a potential drop to 6400 or even 6200.  However, the index remains above its 28-week exponential moving average, indicating the overall uptrend is still intact, and the pullback appears to be a short-term consolidation.

A trading signal to sell FEMKX and move to a cash position was issued this week, as the momentum indicator of the FEMKX fund price has fallen to 65.88, below the 75 selling threshold. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The weekly chart of the FEMKX price

Fund Rankings Update, 10/3/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks moved higher, looking past the US government shutdown after Congress was not able to reach a funding agreement. Investors believe the government shutdown increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed at its policy meeting in late October.   For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.09% to close at 6715, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite index pulled ahead 1.32%.

The S&P 500 initially hit our first price target of 6750 on Friday before pulling back slightly, settling the week at 6715. This strong close confirms the rally's continuation toward our second price target of 6900. However, the index's growing divergence from its 28-week moving average suggests that caution regarding a short-term pullback is warranted.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/26/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks moved lower as several Fed officials cautioned about further monetary policy easing due to concerns about persistently high inflation during the week.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.31% to close at 6643, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.15%, and the Nasdaq Composite index retreated 0.65%.

The S&P 500 closed the week slightly lower, forming a doji-like candle that indicates indecision between buyers and sellers after reaching new highs.  The index's dominant long-term bull trend remains valid. Price action next week is crucial for confirmation.  A strong close next week (a "white candle") would confirm the rally is continuing. We'll look for targets at 6750 and then 6900.   A further decline (a "red candle") would signal a short-term pullback or consolidation. Key support levels to watch are 6400 and 6200.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index