Fund Rankings Update, 10/10/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the FEMKX timing model: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks experienced a large decline on the last day of the week as investors were concerned about a prolonged government shutdown and escalation of the trade war after President Trump announced massive tariffs on China due to its rare earth export restrictions.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.43% to close at 6552, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 2.73%, and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 2.53%.

The S&P 500 was rejected significantly at the 6750 resistance level. Its momentum indicator has exited the overbought zone and is trending lower. Failure to immediately bounce back next week suggests a potential drop to 6400 or even 6200.  However, the index remains above its 28-week exponential moving average, indicating the overall uptrend is still intact, and the pullback appears to be a short-term consolidation.

A trading signal to sell FEMKX and move to a cash position was issued this week, as the momentum indicator of the FEMKX fund price has fallen to 65.88, below the 75 selling threshold. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The weekly chart of the FEMKX price

Fund Rankings Update, 10/3/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks moved higher, looking past the US government shutdown after Congress was not able to reach a funding agreement. Investors believe the government shutdown increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed at its policy meeting in late October.   For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.09% to close at 6715, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite index pulled ahead 1.32%.

The S&P 500 initially hit our first price target of 6750 on Friday before pulling back slightly, settling the week at 6715. This strong close confirms the rally's continuation toward our second price target of 6900. However, the index's growing divergence from its 28-week moving average suggests that caution regarding a short-term pullback is warranted.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/26/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks moved lower as several Fed officials cautioned about further monetary policy easing due to concerns about persistently high inflation during the week.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.31% to close at 6643, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.15%, and the Nasdaq Composite index retreated 0.65%.

The S&P 500 closed the week slightly lower, forming a doji-like candle that indicates indecision between buyers and sellers after reaching new highs.  The index's dominant long-term bull trend remains valid. Price action next week is crucial for confirmation.  A strong close next week (a "white candle") would confirm the rally is continuing. We'll look for targets at 6750 and then 6900.   A further decline (a "red candle") would signal a short-term pullback or consolidation. Key support levels to watch are 6400 and 6200.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/19/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSDAX, Buy FSELX

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 05069, Buy FDGRX

Stocks moved higher with all major indices reaching new record highs for another week.  The Federal Reserve Board, at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday, announced the widely anticipated first rate cut of 0.25% in the past nine months.  The interest rate-sensitive small-cap and technology sectors were boosted by the announcement and outperformed the general market. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.22% to close at 6664, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05%, and the Nasdaq Composite index jumped 2.21%.

Based on the S&P 500's weekly chart, the index is gaining momentum and appears to be approaching the 6750 resistance level.  As it climbs, the deviation from its 28-week exponential moving average has increased to 8.0%. This growing divergence from the long-term average suggests a need for caution as the market nears this key resistance point. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/12/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks advanced higher with all major indices reaching new record highs during the week.  Investors widely anticipated the Fed would cut the interest rate in its September policy next week.  Ongoing AI rally supported by Oracle's substantial upward guidance revision, also helped lift the major indices.  For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.59% to close at 6584, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite index jumped 2.03%. 

The S&P 500 index has decisively broken through the 6500 resistance level to close the week at 6584. This strong move suggests that the recent upward trend is gaining momentum, and the index is likely to continue its rally.  We anticipate the S&P 500 will reach its next key resistance level at 6750, followed by 6900.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 09/05/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell MLAIX, Buy SEMTX

Major indices closed this holiday-shortened week mixed, with tech stocks outperforming the general market.  Weaker-than-expected job data fuels the hope for a rate cut in September's Fed policy meeting,  and tech stocks were supported by the less severe outcome of the Google antitrust trial.   For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 0.33% to close at 6481, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite index rose 1.14%. 

The S&P 500 index appears to be forming a rounded top pattern with resistance at 6500; however, the overall trend remains positive.  If the index can break decisively and hold above the 6500 resistance, it would indicate another leg higher, aiming toward 6800.  If the index fails to break the 6500 resistance, it will test the support at the 6100-6150 level. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/29/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks retreated from record highs as they approached the 6500 resistance level.  Inflation data showed the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) holding steady in July, and the GDP growth was revised higher. Positive earnings from NVIDIA also eased some of the street's concern around this AI-driven rally.  For the week, the S&P 500 dipped 0.1% to close at 6460, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 0.19%. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index