Fund Rankings Update, 11/28/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stock markets rebounded sharply higher this holiday-shortened week, as several Fed officials' dovish comments and weak economic data raised hope for a rate cut in the Fed's December 9 meeting. Released economic data showed the September producer price index (PPI) rose 0.3%, in line with expectations, and the core PPI rose only 0.1%, better than the estimated 0.2%.  The U.S. retail sales on the other hand,  increased by 0.2% in September, down from 0.6% in August and below the estimate of 0.4%. The tame inflation data and weak sales data have increased the probability of a 0.25% rate cut in the Fed's December 9 meeting to 86%, from 70% a week earlier.  For the week, the S&P 500 jumped 3.73% higher to close at 6849, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 3.18%, and the Nasdaq Composite index shot up 4.91%.

The S&P 500 index has fully recovered from last week's losses and is now challenging its all-time record high of 6920. This level, along with the 28-week EMA support of 6450, is the two critical short-term levels to watch now. For a bullish "V" shape recovery scenario: A breakout and close above 6920 will confirm the recovery and signal the continuation of the upward trend. A preferred buying entry would be to wait for the index to break the 6920 high, then recede back to test the EMA support level or the previous swing low before resuming its climb. For a bearish scenario: A failure to break above the 6920 resistance and a subsequent drop below the key support at 6450 would signal a bearish pullback.  A downside breach of 28-week EMA would confirm a bearish pullback, which establishes the level as a good short-term selling entry.  As the momentum of the index has regained its strength, the bullish scenario remains the higher probability outcome, though caution is warranted for a potential short-term consolidation due to the overbought reading.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

  

Fund Rankings Update, 11/21/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell ITA, Buy IBB

Stock markets finished the week sharply lower, driven by increasing concerns over stretched AI stock valuations and the sustainability of massive tech investments.  A major focus was the NVIDIA earnings report released after-market on Wednesday. Despite the chipmaker posting better-than-expected revenue and earnings with positive forward guidance, its stock price experienced significant intraday volatility, ultimately closing 3.15% lower after an initial surge on Thursday. The mixed reaction highlighted investor anxiety regarding the broader AI boom. On the economic front, the delayed September jobs report showed the US economy added 119,000 jobs, exceeding estimates. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest level in nearly four years, suggesting a cooling in the labor market.   For the week, the S&P 500 finished 1.95% lower to close at 66024, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.91%, and the Nasdaq Composite index slid 2.74%.

On the weekly chart below, the S&P 500 index continued its pullback, posting a weekly loss of 1.95% . The index has dropped significantly, now trading below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time since April, and is currently sitting near its 100-day EMA support level. This decline brings the index closer to its next key support levels, including the 28-week EMA around 6400 and the 200-day EMA around 6300. We view this current move as a healthy consolidation phase, digesting the rapid, uninterrupted gains seen since April. Given the shrinking upside momentum and increased volatility this month, this consolidation may persist for a few more weeks. We recommend patiently awaiting a clearer setup before looking for new buying opportunities.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/14/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FTRNX, Buy FEMKX

Stocks closed the week mixed, driven by a tug-of-war between positive policy news and renewed monetary concerns. The major blue-chip indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index, eked out modest gains, largely fueled by the news on Wednesday that the US Federal Government Shutdown—the longest in history—officially ended.  However, this optimism was significantly tempered by hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials later in the week. These statements cooled expectations for another interest rate cut in December, weighing heavily on the rate-sensitive Nasdaq Composite and small-cap indices, which both lost ground.  For the week, the S&P 500 finished 0.08% higher to close at 6734, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.34%, while the Nasdaq Composite index slid 0.45%.

The S&P 500 index was noncommittal, consolidating within the range of the previous week.  The index initially attempted to reclaim the lost ground from the previous week but failed to challenge the recent all-time high of 6920 and retreated from 6850.   Although the selling pressure intensified later of the week, the index successfully defended the 50-EMA support around 6700 on Friday.  The S&P 500 is currently at a critical technical juncture, holding onto its longer-term uptrend by defending the 50-day EMA. The next week's trading will be crucial to see if buyers can step in, pushing the index back towards resistance, or if the recent selling pressure breaks this key technical support.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/7/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks took a pause in their advance this past week, logging their first weekly loss in four weeks despite the previous week's positive momentum. The market, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq, pulled back from recent records amid jitters over stretched valuations and the sustainability of the AI rally. The Federal Government Shutdown also weighed in on investors' sentiment as it has reached its longest, with no end in sight. The impact of the shutdown has started to affect people's daily lives, notably the reduction in passenger flights due to a shortage of air controllers.  For the week, the S&P 500 finished 1.63% lower to close at 6728, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.21%, and the Nasdaq Composite index fell 3.04%.

The S&P 500 pulled back significantly this past week, failing to maintain the 6900 level it had successfully reached in the previous week. The index's sharp rejection at the 6900 signaled a potential shift in the short-term technical landscape. The S&P 500 now appears to be correcting from the overbought conditions noted in the prior analysis. The focus has now shifted to finding a near term stable support at the 6650-6700 area for buyers to defend and prevent a full reversal of the recent uptrend.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/31/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWP, Buy EWY

Stocks continued their upward march this week, spearheaded by strong performances in the large-cap and technology sectors. Investor sentiment was buoyed by several key events: the Federal Reserve's expected 0.25% cut to the Fed fund rate on Wednesday, and a modest trade agreement between the US and China reached at the APEC summit, providing temporary relief. Additionally, five of the "Magnificent Seven" companies reported positive quarterly earnings, with their continuous capital expenditure on AI alleviating investor concerns about a potential AI bubble. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 0.71% to close at 6,840, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.75%, and the Nasdaq Composite index surged 2.24%.

The S&P 500 successfully tagged the 6900 technical target during the week, although it closed marginally below this key resistance level. The index is now navigating an area of extreme overbought conditions, facing strong resistance in the 6900-7000 range. Given this technical setup, the market is highly likely to enter a period of consolidation or sideways trading over the next few weeks before buyers can generate sufficient momentum to resume the broader uptrend.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/24/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks extended their gains this week, driven by positive investor sentiment following encouraging inflation figures released on Friday.  The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August registered at 3.0%, a favorable outcome that came in below the expected 3.1%.  Furthermore, the month-over-month core CPI also surprised to the downside, clocking in at 0.2% for August, which was lower than consensus estimates of 0.3%.  This tame inflation data has boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement a rate cut as early as next week.  For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.91% to close at 6791, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 2.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.31%.

The S&P 500 has successfully recovered the losses incurred two weeks ago, closing at yet another record high. This decisive move confirms the continuation of the current rally, setting the stage for a push toward the 6900 target. With the index holding firmly above the 28-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and demonstrating exceptionally strong momentum, our positive outlook for the S&P 500 remains firmly intact.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 10/17/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks rebounded from the sell-off last Friday.  Reduced trade tension between the US and China, and dovish comments from Fed officials appeared to calm investors' anxiety.  Better-than-expected earnings reports from the banking sector also boosted market sentiment.    For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.7% to close at 6664, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 1.56%, and the Nasdaq Composite index rose 2.14%.

The S&P 500 is currently in a sideways consolidation, signaled by the weekly candle being completely engulfed by the previous week's.  The next weekly candle is critical to the index's immediate direction.  A close above this week's high confirms a continued rally toward the 6900 target, while a close below this week's low indicates a pullback to the 6400 or 6200 support levels.  However, as long as the index holds above its 28-week exponential moving average, any pullback should be viewed as a healthy, short-term pause in the uptrend.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index