Fund Rankings Updatge, 4/4/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy FIEUX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBMPX, Buy FSTCX

Stocks closed sharply lower as President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs against the world on Wednesday.  The harsher-than-expected move triggered fears of retaliation from other countries, as well as higher inflation and economic recession.  While Wall Street is now looking for the Fed's help to counter the impact of tariffs by lowering the interest rates, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, still wants to wait for more clarity before adjusting the money policy.  For the week, the S&P 500 gave up 9.08%, closing at 5074, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 7.86%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 10.02%.

The S&P 500 index plunged Thursday and Friday after President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday, after the market closed.   In the weekly chart below, the index closed below its 28-week exponential moving average the week of March 3 and rebounded before reaching the low of 5504. The index tested the EMA resistance of 5787 during the rebound last week (week of March 24) and experienced severe rejection. The index then fell sharply lower after breaking the the previous low of 5504.  As investors quite oftern overreact to the panic selling, the index may continue to fall to the previous high support at 4600 if it can not hold the current 5000 pyshological support.  From past experience, it is better  to wait before taking trading action at this juncture: Wait for rebound and sell when the index receives rejection at EMA resistance, or wait for "W" shape bottom and breaking above EMA resistance to buy into the market.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/28/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy 42626

Stocks closed broadly lower on inflation and tariff concerns.  On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 25% levy on all non-U.S.-made automobiles, which rattled investors' confidence. Adding oil to the fire, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% in February, up from January’s reading of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, the core PCE rose 2.8%, remaining well above the Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2%.  The S&P 500 fell by 1.53% for the week, closing at 5580. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.96%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.59%. 

 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/21/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed higher snapping a multi-week losing streak.  Investors were pleased with the Fed Chair's dovish tone about the impact of the tariffs and his view that most measures of longer-term expectations still remain consistent with the central bank’s 2% inflation target.  For the week, the S&P 500 increased by 0.51%, closing at 5667. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite went up 0.17%. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

  

Fund Rankings Update, 3/14/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the HSA model portfolio: Sell CSMUX, Buy PCRIX.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell IAI, Buy IXG

Stocks closed lower for the fourth week as tariff concern and fears of recession continue to weigh on investor sentiment.   The focus of the economic data this week was the CPI and PPI data released on Wednesday and Thursday.  Both indices showed the cooling of inflation in February but failed to sway the wait-and-see attitude toward the rate policy from the Fed.  For the week, the S&P 500 declined by 2.27%, closing at 5638. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost another 3.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.43%.   

After confirming the correction phase last week, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 5638, solidly below its 28-week exponential moving average of 5834.   The index has reached the first support region that we discussed last week.  With the deteriorating momentum, the index probably will not hold this level for long and is very likely to go down to the second support at 5200, which is a stronger support in our opinion. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/7/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Ongoing tariff concerns significantly impacted investor sentiment, leading to a third consecutive week of stock market declines. Trade policy uncertainties remained central, particularly following the implementation of 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on Chinese imports. Although the Trump administration later announced a series of exemptions, the resulting volatility and unpredictability negatively affected investor confidence.  For the week, the S&P 500 dropped by 3.1%, closing at 5,770. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a decrease of 2.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite experienced a substantial decline of 3.45%.   

The S&P 500's close at 5770 this week confirms an ongoing correction phase, as it dipped below both its 28-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 5848 and its previous low of 5773. While temporary relief rallies are possible, the index is now in a clear downtrend. Investors should closely monitor its behavior at key support and resistance levels. On the weekly chart, the first support level lies around 5600, followed by a stronger support near 5200. Conversely, the 28-week EMA, previously a support, now acts as the initial resistance at 5848, and the previous high around 6100 provides a stronger second resistance.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 2/28/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDEGX, Buy FCNTX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSLBX, Buy FBMPXX

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWS, Buy FXI

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKXS, Buy Cash

Most stocks declined over the week, with the tech stocks experiencing the most loss. Ongoing concerns about tariffs and slowing economic growth continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Economic data further fueled these concerns, with jobless claims rising by 22,000 to 242,000—the highest level since October 2024—and consumer confidence dropping seven points in February, the sharpest monthly decline in three years. The S&P 500 fell 0.98% for the week, closing at 5,954. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.95%, while the Nasdaq composite index plummeted by 3.47%.    

The S&P 500 tested the 5850 trend line support this week, rebounding to close at 5954, above the 28-week exponential moving average.  Maintaining this trend line support is critical.  As previously noted, the index remains in a consolidation phase between 5850 and 6090.  A drop below 5850, particularly with a close below the prior low of 5773, would confirm a correction.  The index's performance in the coming week will be pivotal in determining its future trajectory.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/21/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGV, Buy FXI

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell ARGFX, Buy FCNTX

Stocks closed lower as President Trump announced his intention for additional 25% tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and chips.  Economic data suggesting a slowing economy further dampened investor confidence. The S&P Global flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached a 17-month low of 50.4, with the service PMI at 49.7 (readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below 50 signal contraction).  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.66%, closing at 6013. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq composite index both decreased by 2.51%.    

The S&P 500 pulled back below the 6090 resistance level after briefly reaching a record high of 6147. Crucially, the index failed to close above 6128, a level needed to confirm a continued uptrend.  The index remains in a sideways consolidation pattern, bounded by support at 5850 and resistance at 6090.  A breakout above the resistance or below the support will determine the index's future direction. 

The Weekly Chart of the S&P 500 index