Happy Thanksgiving!
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
With President-elect Obama's announcement of his economy team, market got back some confidence the past week. Major indexes reversed their slides and put out a good performance this Thanksgiving week. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 9.7%, S&P 500 index increased 12% and NASDAQ Composite Index went up 10.9% for the week. Market is looking for a bottom, but economy condition has not improved and may get worse. I am skeptical about the sustainability of any rallies before AMI turning positive and stock market giving back its extreme volatility.
Weekly stock market commentary and momentum rankings of ETFs and mutual funds.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 11/25/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, 11/21/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Major indexes continued their slides this past week. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.3 %, S&P 500 index lost 8.4% and NASDAQ Composite Index lost 8.7% for the week. Negative AMI's have kept us on the sideline.
Major indexes continued their slides this past week. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.3 %, S&P 500 index lost 8.4% and NASDAQ Composite Index lost 8.7% for the week. Negative AMI's have kept us on the sideline.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 11/18/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, 11/14/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Major indexes experienced wild swings this past week and ended up in the loss column. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5 %, S&P 500 index lost 6.2% and NASDAQ Composite Index lost 7.9% for the week. As we discussed before, any rally in the bear market, which we are in now, will be short live and should be used as a sell opportunity to unload your position. Some people attempted to bottom fishing and got burned in the process because they can not act fast enough in this extremely volatile market. Economy is just entering recession, we have to let this bear run its course. Patient is virtue, and cash preservation is paramount not only for managing companies but also for managing personal portfolios in this economic condition.
I would like to share with you a good strategy from one of the investing blog on how to handle the fund holdings you currently have in case you did not unload them in time. Since we do not know if the market will go up or go down from here, sell half of the position regardless of the loss it incurs. For the remaining half, set a 5% loss threshold. That way, if the market goes up you will have some position in the market, and if the market goes down more than 5% from here, you will get out of the market completely.
Major indexes experienced wild swings this past week and ended up in the loss column. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5 %, S&P 500 index lost 6.2% and NASDAQ Composite Index lost 7.9% for the week. As we discussed before, any rally in the bear market, which we are in now, will be short live and should be used as a sell opportunity to unload your position. Some people attempted to bottom fishing and got burned in the process because they can not act fast enough in this extremely volatile market. Economy is just entering recession, we have to let this bear run its course. Patient is virtue, and cash preservation is paramount not only for managing companies but also for managing personal portfolios in this economic condition.
I would like to share with you a good strategy from one of the investing blog on how to handle the fund holdings you currently have in case you did not unload them in time. Since we do not know if the market will go up or go down from here, sell half of the position regardless of the loss it incurs. For the remaining half, set a 5% loss threshold. That way, if the market goes up you will have some position in the market, and if the market goes down more than 5% from here, you will get out of the market completely.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 11/11/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Fund Rankings Update, 11/07/2008
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSRBX, Buy FSLXX
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell DVY, Buy CASH
with the sell signals in SELECT and ETF model portfolios this week, all the model portfolios are officially in the cash position . The AMI's in each of the ranking tables are deep in the negative territory, and it will take a while for AMI's to turns positive.
Economy is still contracting right now with all kind of problems: tight credit liquidity, high unemployment rate, low consumer confidence, etc. It will take sometime for the new president to fix the problem after he gets into the office next year. The recovery and the reversal of the stock market trend will not happen right away.
In this market condition, the best thing to do is waiting at the sideline. By keeping what you have, you are already ahead of others who keep their investment in the market and watch their value going down. People quite often are tricked to believe a market turnaround is a hand when they saw a rebound in a bear market. As I pointed out earlier, these rebounds will be weak and short lives because of the nature of the bear market. Do not be fooled to beleive that these are the onsets of bull market. They are, in fact, opportunities to unload your positions if you are still in the market. As trend followers, we have to wait for the uptrend to take hold. And to identiy the trend reversal, you can read my earlier blogs.
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSRBX, Buy FSLXX
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell DVY, Buy CASH
with the sell signals in SELECT and ETF model portfolios this week, all the model portfolios are officially in the cash position . The AMI's in each of the ranking tables are deep in the negative territory, and it will take a while for AMI's to turns positive.
Economy is still contracting right now with all kind of problems: tight credit liquidity, high unemployment rate, low consumer confidence, etc. It will take sometime for the new president to fix the problem after he gets into the office next year. The recovery and the reversal of the stock market trend will not happen right away.
In this market condition, the best thing to do is waiting at the sideline. By keeping what you have, you are already ahead of others who keep their investment in the market and watch their value going down. People quite often are tricked to believe a market turnaround is a hand when they saw a rebound in a bear market. As I pointed out earlier, these rebounds will be weak and short lives because of the nature of the bear market. Do not be fooled to beleive that these are the onsets of bull market. They are, in fact, opportunities to unload your positions if you are still in the market. As trend followers, we have to wait for the uptrend to take hold. And to identiy the trend reversal, you can read my earlier blogs.
iETF and sETF rankings update, 11/4/2008
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)