Fund Rankings Update, 12/31/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell NMGIX, Buy CBSAX.

iEF and sETF rankings update and Market Review, 12/29/2009

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at :http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

iETF and sETF ranking table will be updated over the weekend together with the other ranking tables, starting Jan. 1, 2010.

Stock markets will close the year in another two days and I do not expect they will change much. The S&P 500 index began this year with 903, continuing the spiral downward tend from the end of last year due the the economy meltdown. It reached the low of 682 on March 5, losing 24.4%. As the economy stabilized, the stock markets rebounded and their momentum turned from negative to positive. By the end of March, the weekly stochastics of S&P 500 index has climbed over 50, and our FEMKX trading system, which is based on stochastics, also issued a buy signal on March 30. However, after the sever down turn, these signals were treated with cautiousness. The confirmation of the signal came in mid-April when the S&P 500 index closed above its 28 week moving average, and all of our model portfolios issued "buy" signals. After the index broke through the moving average, it hovered around the trend line for 3 months building the base and then took off from there in July. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index gained 24.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 20.2% and the NASDAQ composite index went up 45.3%. The technology sectors are leading the way as in any economy recovery phase.

Our stochastics based FEMKX timing model, turned in the best performance this year again. It issued the "buy" signal first in March and still holds the position with a gain of 82%. nSSPp and SELECT model portfolios delivered the second best performance with a gain of 55%. nSSPP bought into FEMKX in April and traded it for ARGFX in August and still holds ARGFX. SELECT moved from cash to FWRLX in April and subsequently made two other trades. It currently holds the FBSOX. The SSPP model portfolio made 3 trades this year with a gain of 27.5% outperformed the S&P 500 index a bit. The ETF, iETF and sETF model portfolios are under performing the S&P 500 index this year. ETF model portfolio made 5 trades and gained only 10%, sETF made 5 trades as well but gained 24%, and iETF made 4 trades making 17.5%. The higher volatility nature of these funds made it difficulty to develop good solid gains as their holding periods seldom last more than 90 days.

Economy recovery is gaining its foothold and the government stimulus programs will keep coming next year. Next year should be a prosper year and I hope it is even better than this year!

Fund Rankings Update, 12/25/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at:http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Santa came to Wall Street this week and gave stock markets a boost. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1126, up 2.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.85%, and the technology heavy Nasdaq composite index gained 3.35% for the week leading the major indexes.

Real Estate and Technology sectors were among the stronger sectors for the past week. In the international front, Brazil and Latin America still held their top ranks.

I have quietly started the ranking table for HSA. It contains the 15 funds in my company's Health Saving Account. These 15 funds are basically large cap, mid cap, small cap index funds, and income funds. I do not think they have enough volatility and the sector coverage such that the ranking system can take advantage to outperform the general market. In addition, the number of funds is too small to set an meaningful threshold. However, I am willing to give it a try. I will apply the similar rule as the other model portfolios but set the threshold at 5. The trading record is posted in the SSPP_Log page, and we shall see how it performs over time.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. We will buy FEMKX if its STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its STO[15,1] falls below 75. We bought FEMKX on 3/30 at $12.31. FEMKX closded at $22.30 today with a gain of 81.2% after holding it for 270 days. We are still holding FEMKX since its STO[15,1] currently stands at 76.8, above the selling threshold of 75.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%
FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31

iEF and sETF rankings update, 12/22/2009

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at :http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEZ, Buy ICF.

Starting from Jan. 1, 2010, I will not update iETF and sETF ranking tables on Tuesday. I will update them over the weekends, together with the other ranking tables.

Readers are interested in knowing the performance of my portfolio for the past 2 years using the ranking system. I have posted my fund rankings for more than 5 years. During this period, we have experienced bull market as well as bear (extremely bear) market, especially for the past 2 years with economy gradually recovered from the the collapse of financial sector. In October 2007, the S&P 500 index reached the high of 1567 after years of steady advance from the 1211 at the end of 2004. However, all good things eventually will come to an end. The market subsequently headed downward and the S&P 500 index closed 2007 with 7 points below where it started that year. The stock markets struggled to hang on their gains for most of the 2008 but the finalcial tsunami finally hit the street. In September 2008, financial institutes were in shamble, and the investment capital were frozen. The economy were in the brink of collapse and the stock market went down 25% in a week. Panics set in and the S&P 500 index lost 34% in 2008 and continued the slide in 2009. The market finally hit the bottom in March 2009 as economy started its fragile recovery. From the high of 1567 to the bottom of 683, the S&P 500 index lost 56% during this bear market. Since March 2009, the market has recovered quite strongly, even stronger than the economy recovery. The &P 500 index has gained 63% from its low in March and 20% from the the beginning of the year.

The chart below, shows the performance of my portfolio for the past 5 years. I have normalized the value such that it starts at 1 in Dec. 2004. In 3 years, by the end of 2007, my portfolio had doubled in value, averaging 26% a year and outperformed the market. For the first nine months in 2008, the value of my portfolio was flat compared to the downward trend in S&P 500 index. As no one can escape from the financial tsunami, my portfolio went down as well at the end of 2008, losing 18 % for the year. I stayed on the side line for 6 months from October 2008 to March 2009 following the ranking system. In March and April, the buying signals started to show up and I started to take positions. By December, my portfolio has recovered from the loss and has made all time high.

The ranking system will not prevent us from the loss totally but will reduce our exposure to the risk when the time is bad and lessen our loss. When the up trend come back, the ranking system will take advantage of the trend and deliver performance better than the market average.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!

Fund Rankings Update, 12/18/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Another week of consolidation. It seems that investors are afraid to commit during this end of the year period and the stocks end up mixed for the week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1102, down 0.36%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decrease 1.36%, and the Nasdaq composite index gain 0.98% for the week.

Technology sectors were strong for the week due to better-than-expected earning announcements from RIM and Oracle. The emergent markets lost their shine this week due the strong dollar.

iEF and sETF rankings update, 12/15/2009

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at :http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Starting from Jan. 1, 2010, I will update iETF and sETF ranking tables over the weekends, together with the other ranking tables.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/11/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Stocks have been hovering around the 1100 level of the S&P500 index for the past two months. Will the Santa rally come to Wall street next week? We would like to hope so with the backdrop of the stronger than expected retail sale in November. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1106, up 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.8%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 0.18% for the week.

The real estate sector is coming strong this week, Latin America and Brazil are still the top dogs in the international front.

iEF and sETF rankings update, 12/8/2009

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at :http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Starting from Jan. 1, 2010, I will update iETF and sETF ranking tables over the weekends, together with the other ranking tables.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/04/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Stocks shook off Dubai debt crisis and were encouraged by the unexpected drop of job less rate. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1105, up 1.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.8%, and the technology heavy Nasdaq composite index gained 2.6% for the week.

In the monthly chart of the S&P 500 index below, the index is well above its trend line and the Stochastics is at 71 as of 12/1/2009. Although it does not mean we are going straight up from here but overall market trend looks pretty good.


iEF and sETF rankings update, 12/1/2009

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at :http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWO, Buy EWZ

Starting from Jan. 1, 2010, I will update iETF and sETF ranking tables over the weekends, together with the other ranking tables.

Fund Rankings and FEMKX Update, 11/27/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYR, Buy ILF.

Stocks were progressing well before Dubai's debt problem hit the world on Thanksgiving day. Asia and European markets plummeted out of the fear that financial institutes and banks will tighten their lending and throw the economy off the fragile recovery. However, US stocks bounced back from the sharp drop at the opening Friday and closed the day with only 1.5% drop. We shall see how the Dubai crisis develops over the weekend but this the action from US stocks will certainly provide stabilization to the global markets when they open on Monday. The S&P 500 index was virtually unchanged this week at 1091, up 0.01%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.08%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 0.35% for the week.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. We will buy FEMKX if its STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its STO[15,1] falls below 75. We bought FEMKX on 3/30 at $12.31. FEMKX closded at $21.79 today with a gain of 71.0% after holding it for 242 days. We are still holding FEMKX since its STO[15,1] currently stands at 86.7, above the selling threshold of 75.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%
FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31

Fund Rankings Update, 11/20/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FPBFX, Buy FEMKX.
A Trading signal should have been issued in sETF moel portfolio on 11/17: Sell IXG, Buy IEZ. I have corrected this in the ETF log page.

Stocks showed some weakness, and the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq composite index failed to break their resistance level at 1100 and 2200 respectively. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1091, down 0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.42%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 1.0% for the week.

A trading signal was issued this week in SSPP model portfolio because FPBFX's AMI ranking has dropped below 7 (from 6 to 10). We will buy into the current #1 rank fund, FEMKX. In the SELECT ranking table, the technology sectors remain strong while basic material sectors saw some strength. In the ETF ranking table, Latin America (ILF) is still leading the pack.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/13/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

I would like to thank all the readers who clicked the ads on this website. With your help, I have received the first check from Google after more than 2 years. When you click on the ads, Google will share a tiny of amount of the ad revenue with me and send me a check when it reach a certain threshold. Again, thank you for your support and keep clicking!

Good company earnings keep the stocks trending up for another week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1093, up 2.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.5%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 2.6% for the week. The S&P 500 index is again challenging the the resistance at 1100, and the Nasdaq composite is trying to break above 2200.

The technology sectors remain the top dogs in the SELECT ranking table, while ILF is leading the pack in the ETF ranking table.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/06/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in the SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSAVX, Buy FBSOX.

Stocks started November with a strong week. Even with the news that the US unemployment rate climbed from 9.8% to 10.2 % in October, stocks still managed a small gain on Friday to give the market five straight advances. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1069, up 3.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.2%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 3.3% for the week. It is a good sign that all the indexes have managed to stay above their 13 week trend line.

The technology and engrgy sectors have pushed the automotive sector down below the 7th rank in the SELECT ranking table, hence a trading signal was issued for SELECT model portfolio. In the ETF ranking table, IYR failed to maintain its up trend and quickly lost its momentum. We still hold IYR in the ETF model portfolio since its ranking has not fallen below 10.

Fund Rankings and FEMKX Update, 10/30/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

After failing to close above DOW 10000 for 2 weeks, stocks failed to rebound this week and ended up with big loss as investors took profit. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1036, down 4.0%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.6% for the week, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 5.1%. All the indexes are testing their 13 week trend line. A successful testing of the support will ensure the continuation of the up trend. For S&P 500 index, the next support after the 1033 short term support is the 28 week trend line at 994 level. The close proximity to 1000 makes it a more critical support.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. We will buy FEMKX if its STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its STO[15,1] falls below 75. We bought FEMKX on 3/30 at $12.31. FEMKX closded at $20.68 today with a gain of 68.0% after holding it for 214 days. We are still holding FEMKX since its STO[15,1] currently stands at 82.9, above the selling threshold of 75.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%
FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31

Fund Rankings Update, 10/23/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

The Dow Jones Industrial Average struggled around the key 1000 level amid the slew of company earning announcements. On Friday, the investors' worry about the length of economy recovery pulled the index down 150 points, and the DJIA failed to close the week above 1000. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1079, down 0.7%, , the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.2%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.1% for the week. The anticipated big move for stocks did not materialized due the the mixed company earning reports.

In the U.S., the energy related sectors still have upward momentum on their side. FSAIX in the SELECT ranking table quickly fell off the top rank due to the higher oil price, and FSAVX regained the top spot after giving up the crown for a few weeks. Our SELECT model portfolio has held FSAVX for 137 days since June with a gain of 40%. For the international funds, Latin America and Europe are among the top momentum area due to natural resource and week dollar respectively.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/16/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Dow Jones Industrial Average broke above the 10000 psychological barrier on Wednesday and stayed above it for two days. Unfortunately the bad earning announcement from Bank of America and GE on Friday dragged the index down and DJIA closed the week 5 point below 10000. Next week, a lot of the companies will announce their 3rd quarter earnings and will give a more clear indication about the economy recovery. A large stock movement next week is expected. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1087, up 1.5%, , the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.3%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.8% for the week. Slowly but steadily, S&P 500 index is heading toward 1200 level.

Continuing the strong movement from last week, the energy related sectors, such as energy service, natural gas are moving up fast in the ranking table. Latin America (ILF) and Brazil(EWB) are among the funds with highest momentum in the international front.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/9/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

On Monday, Alcoa kicked off the third quarter earning season with a positive outlook and brought back investors' optimism. Stocks posted strong gain after two weeks in the losing column. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1071, up 4.5%, , the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 4.0%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 4.5% for the week. I still think that we are heading toward 1200 level for SP 500 index.

I have removed FNINX and FSPFX from Select ranking table since they have been closed since June. In the Select ranking table, FSAIX held the number 1 ranking for the second week due to stable oil price. However, energy related sectors, such as energy service, natural gas are coming up strong and worth our attention. On the international front, Latin America (ILF) and Brazil(EWB) are moving up fast in the iETF table.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/2/2009


Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Stocks continue the weakness from last week. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1025, down 1.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.8%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 2.1% for the week. Keep in mind that the stocks had a very strong July-September period, gaining 15%, and a pull back is expected. The S&P 500 index still closed this week above the critical 1000 support level.

In the monthly chart of the S&P 500 index since year 1990, the index has crossed above its trend line and the Stochastics is at 55 as of 10/1/2009, hence, the multi-year bull trend was confirmed.

Fund Rankings and FEMKX Update, 9/25/2009


Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell EWW, Buy IYR.

Stocks showed sign of weakness. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1044, down 2.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.6% for the week, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 2.0%. Weak numbers from housing indicated that the growth of economy has not gained a firm footing yet. Recovery has arrived but we still have a long way to go.

In ETF ranking table, EWW has lost steam and dropped below 10th rank. We will sell it and replace it with IYR.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. We will buy FEMKX if its STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its STO[15,1] falls below 75. We bought FEMKX on 3/30 at $12.31. FEMKX closded at $20.75 today with a gain of 68.9% after holding it for 179 days. We are still holding FEMKX since its STO[15,1] currently stands at 96.9 well above the selling threshold of 75.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%
FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31

Fund Rankings Update, 9/18/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Investors on the side line, afraid of missing the rally, jumped back into the market every time stocks showed sign of retreat The SP 500 index closed this week at 1068, up 2.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.2%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 2.5% for the week. The S&P 500 index has climbed more than 5% this month. Remember around the same time last year, the global financial system was in the brink of collapse and stocks fell off the cliff. With the recession behind us and the economy recovery gaining more traction, the stock markets have rally strongly since March.

This week, the real estate, air transportation, and basic material are among the strongest sectors as observed from the ranking tables.

I have added the fund symbols that I can find in the N-SSPP ranking table based on readers' suggestion.


Fund Rankings Update, 9/11/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Historically the month of September is a loss month for the stock markets. However the major indexes put out a strong performance for the first week of this September. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1042, up 2.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.7%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 3.1% for the week. We shall see how the rest of the month goes.

In U.S., the automotive sector is still holding to the number one rank in the select ranking table, and Air transportation is moving up fast. In the ETF ranking table, the EPP (pacific region), IYR(real estate), and IYT (transportation) have the strongest momentum for the week.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/4/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

The sell-off in Asia and the worry about the bank failure caused the stocks to continue its sell-off from the end of last week. However the major indexes slowly climbed back at the end of the week to lessen the damage. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1016, down 1.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.1%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 0.5% for the week. It is encouraging to see the S&P 500 index still closed this week above the critical 1000 support level.

In the monthly chart of the S&P 500 index since year 1990, the index has crossed above its trend line and the Stochastics is at 47 as of 9/1/2009. Multi-year bull trend will be confirmed when the Stochastics climbs above 50.


Fund Rankings and FEMKX Update, 8/28/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in nSSPP model portfolio: Sell Emerging Market Index, Buy Ariel Fund.

Stocks went into consolidation mode this past week. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1028, up 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.4% for the week, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.4%. From ETF ranking table, the US financial sectors outperformed international sectors for the week.

Here is an update for our FEMKX timing system. We will buy FEMKX if its STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its STO[15,1] falls below 75. We bought into FEMKX on 3/30 at $12.31. FEMKX closded at $19.38 today with a gain of 57.4% so far! We are still holding FEMKX since its STO[15,1] currently stands at 90.8.
Fund    Buy On    Buy@    Sell On    Sell@    P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%
FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31



iEF and sETF rankings update, 8/25/2009

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell INP, Buy EWO.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/21/09

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

The stock market had a big drop Monday due to the worry about the robustness of the economy recovery. As more good new trickled in during the week, the investors' confidence slowly came back. On Friday, the surge of the July new home sales finally did the trick. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1026, up 2.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.0% for the week, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.8%.

As the economy recovery takes hold, the U.S. stocks outperformed the emergent markets this week. In SSPP ranking table, the real estate sector took the number 1 rank from pacific basin fund, and in the ETF ranking table, the US financial sector and real estate sector (IYG, IYF, IYR) all made big moves up to the top.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/14/09

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio:
Sell IGN, Buy EWW.

Bulls and bears fought for the 1000 key support level of the S&P 500 index for the whole week. Gladly the bulls still has the upper hand and the index although close down for the week is still above the support level. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1004, down 0.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decrease 0.5% for the week, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 0.7%.

We are in the midst of sector rotation. The technology sector seems to plateau and the financial/banking sector is surging upward. This can be observed from rank changes in the SELECT ranking table.

iEF and sETF rankings update, 8/11/2009

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Trading signal occurs in sector ETF (S-ETF) model portfolio:
Sell IGN, Buy IXG.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/7/09

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Unemployment rate, unexpectedly dropped from 9.5% to 9.4%, gave stocks reason to rally. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1010, up 2.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.2% for the week, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.1%. The S&P 500 index has climbed above the 1000 psychological barrier. Every time the index break through a resistance level, it will spent sometime in that level for consolidation. If the resistance which becomes the support is successfully tested, the index will resume its trend and heading to the next level. With the economy recovery at hand, I expect that the 1000 level will be successfully tested and the index will head to the 1200 level.

The chart below is the monthly chart of the S&P 500 index since year 2000. The top part of the chart shows the price movement of the index and the lower part shows the Stochastics indicator. Multi-year rallies occur when the Stochastics indicator climbs above 50. It is a good sign that the Stochastics indicator, currently stands at 40, has climbed out of the oversold level since March and is still treding up.





Fund Rankings and FEMKX Update, 7/31/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

This week marked the end of earning season. Good company earning reports have rallied the stock market for the third weeks. The SP 500 index closed this week at 987, up 0.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.9% for the week, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.6%. The second-quarter GDP dipped only 1%, indicating that the recession is about to end and the economy is going to grow again. According to the news report, the "cash for clanker" stimulus program which gives upto $4500 for consumers to replace their old vehicles has run out of the money in the first week due to its success. Hopefully, the boost in car sales can ignite the consumer spending and pull the economy back to its growth path.

Here is an update for our FEMKX timing system. We will buy FEMKX if its STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its STO[15,1] falls below 75. We bought into FEMKX on 3/30 at $12.31. FEMKX closded at $19.11 today with a gain of 55.2% so far! We are still holding FEMKX since its STO[15,1] currently stands at 96.3.
Fund    Buy On    Buy@    Sell On    Sell@    P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%
FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31

Fund Rankings Update, 7/24/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Stocks carried the momentum from last week's rally. The SP 500 index closed this week at 979, up 4.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 4.0% for the week, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 4.2%. The price movement of the S&P 500 index looked pretty good. The index climbed higher than the high it made in early June and the Stochastics is climbing again after 4 weeks of falling. From the chart, the next resistance level is at 1100.

Again Automotive and Technology are still the sectors to be in.


Fund Rankings Update, 7/17/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

We have been waiting for good economy news to boost the investors' confidence and we got it this week. INTEL, Goldman Sach, and IBM reposted strong company earnings early this week and rally the stock markets. The SP 500 index closed this week at 940, up 7.0%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 7.3% for the week, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 7.4%. The S&P 500 has climbed back above the 900 support level. This price movement showed that there are strong support at this level, and the level has to be hold to continue the rally since March.

Automotive, Technology are among the strongest sectors for the week. Technology sector usually leads the pack in the recovery phase. We shall see if this is the case.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/10/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

In the absence of upbeat economic news, the stock markets drifted lower this week. The SP 500 index closed this week at 879, down 1.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.6% for the week, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 2.3%. Note that the S&P 500 has broken the 900 support level and its momentum is deteriorating. Next week quite a few companies are going to report quarterly earnings. Hopefully we can get some good news to give the market a boost.

Fund Rankings and FEMKX Update, 7/7/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Here is an update for our FEMKX timing system. We will buy FEMKX if its STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its STO[15,1] falls below 75. We bought into FEMKX on 3/30 at $12.31. FEMKX closded at $16.61 today with a gain of 34.9% so far. We are still holding FEMKX since its STO[15,1] currently stands at 81.
Fund    Buy On    Buy@    Sell On    Sell@    P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%
FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31

Fund Rankings Update, 7/3/09

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Auto sales in June was not as good as people had hoped, and June employment reports were worse than expected. Investors fear that the economy recovery is stalling. The SP 500 index closed this week at 896, down 2.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.9% for the week, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 2.3%. We need some good economic news to bring back confidence and give market a boost.

Automotive was the strongest sector for this short trading week.

Chattanooga, TN, 6/27 - 6/30

"What's in Chattanooga?", "What are you doing in Chattanooga?" Friends asked me when they learned about my vacation plan. In fact, I was not really sure before the trip either. Turns out that Chattanooga, nicked name scenic city, is a great place for family vacation. It has a vibrant downtown area next to the Tennessee River front with eclectic shops and restaurants. Aquarium, museums and other attractions are also located in the downtown make them accessible by foot. A short drive out of the city to Lookout Mountain, kids and adults can enjoy exploring the caverns, rock formations and scenery in Ruby Falls and Rock City Garden.

Saturday, after 10 hour drive, we arrived late in Chattanooga Marriot, which I had a good deal from priceline.com. After settling in at the hotel, we took the free electric shuttle to Tennessee Aquarium. The aquarium is located at the north end of the downtown area. From there we strolled around trying to formalize the area and at the same time find a place to eat. Nearby, we passed the River Front, Hunter Museum of American Art, The Walnut Street Bridge, and the Bluff View Art District. These attractions are all in walking distance from each other.

The free electric shuttle runs every 5 minutes makes it very easy to go around downtown area.
Carriage tour


Sunday morning, we went to Ruby Falls. At Ruby Falls, we first took an elevator 260 ft down from the ground to a cavern. A tour guide led us into the mountain through a 0.5 mile cave walk. He explained and showed us different rock formations along the way. At the end of the walk is an underground waterfall. It was all dark in the begining and then the LED lights were turned on for 4 minutes for the dramatic effect. After the light went off, we went out from the same route. We were glad we went there early in the morning because people were lining up outside when we got out. We had lunch at the "Sticky Fingers." in downtown. The restaurant is well known for its BBQ ribs and wings.

" Dragon's Foot" rock formation at Ruby Falls

Sunday afternoon, we opt for visiting the Tennessee Aquarium since the termperature was 100 degree outside and we need a place to chill. The aquarium is the largest in the state of Tennessee, It has two 2 buildings, one for ocean journey and one for river journey. Inside, there are butterfly habitat, exhibits of jelly fishes and penguins, and large tank of fishes. Children (adults as well) can even touch the stingrays with fingers.

Monday morning, we headed out to Rock City Garden. It was a 15 minute drive from our hotel to the Lookout Mountain, Georgia. In Rock City Garden, we walk through different exotic rock formation and landscape such as "Needle's Eye," "Fat Man's Squeeze," "Swing-Along Bridge," .etc. At the lookout spot, you can see the 7 states. The walk is relaxing and the view was breathtaking.

A narrow passage( "Needle's Eye") at Rock City Garden
It took some courage to cross the "Swing-Along Bridge"
From the lookout on top of the picture, you can see the seven states

After the Rock City Garden, we went to Chattanooga Choo Choo. Chattanooga Choo Choo used to be a train station, now the terminal was converted to a garden, and the complex was used by Holiday Inn for hotels, restaurants, gift shops and convention center. We had a light lunch there and appreciated the grandiose of the building.


Model Train at Chattanooga Choo Choo showed the heritage of its railroad past


Monday afternoon, we visited the Hunter Museum of American Art. The museum is located right on the cliff overlooking Tennessee River. It consists of three buildings: the main building is a classic mansion; the east wing and the west wing are two contemporary style buildings. The art collection includes American impressionism, modernism and contemporary art. The west side of the museum is the Bluff View Art District which hosts a collection of restaurants and boutique shops. The east side of the museum is the Walnut Street Bridge which is the second longest pedestrian bridge. We had dinner at the Tony's Pasta Shop in the Bluff View Art District. Next door at Rembrandt's coffee shop, people can sit outside while enjoying their sip of coffee. It brought back my memory of living in Germany. After dinner, we took a walk along the river and stroll around downtown and conclude our stay in Chattanooga.


Hunters Museum of American Art overlooking the Tennessee River



Now you know the answers.