Fund Rankin Update, 1/30/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

S&P 500 index closed this week at 825, near the November low of 800. We are testing the November low as I indicated last Friday. Again, this is an important support level. I hope the market can hold it at this level, otherwise it will be an ugly February.

Let's review the chart of FSAIX that I mentioned in my blog on 1/9. At the time, the price of FSAIX climbed above its 28 weeks EMA, and its STO[15,1] climbed above 50. The chart look bullish in the intermediate term. However, the rally quickly fizzled in the past 3 weeks. As you can see in the chart below, its price falls below the 28 week EMA and the STO[15,1] drops below 75. This just shows how difficult it is to rally and sustain the uptrend in this perennial down-trend condition. Before the overall trend turns bullish, one has to be skeptical about any rally. In fact, these rallies may be a good time to unload your current holdings.

iETF and sETF rankings update, 1/27/2009

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

I use monthly chart of S&P 500 index with 13-month exponential moving average (EMA) and slow stochastics (STO[15,1]) to spot multi-year market trend. Looking at the 10 year chart below, the index fell below its EMA in October, 2000 signaling the long term bear market. The signal was confirmed by the STO which dipped below 50 in November the same year. The bear market lasted for 2 years and 6 months before the index turned bullish and climbed above the EMA in April, 2003. The bullish sign was confirmed by STO climbing above 50 in July, 2003. The bull market then ran for 4 years and 8 months. The multi-year bull market came to an end when the index fell below its EMA in December, 2007 and confirmed by STO in January, 2008. You all know what happened in the next 10 months. Right now, we are still in the bear territory. From past experience, trading funds in the bear market and expect profit is like swimming against the tide: a lot of hard work with little gain or even big loss. For ordinary investors like you and me, it is better to stay on the sideline and preserve the capital.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/23/09

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

There was no relief rally this past week, instead S&P 500 index was in the process of retesting the November low of 800 (see chart below). It is important for the index to successfully retest the low and make a "W" bottom. That will give us a hope of a short term rebound. If the index can not hold it at this level, we will see more deterioration.

iEF and sETF ranking update, 1/20/2009

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States of America. He brings hope and change to the country. I hope he can rekindle Americans' "can do" spirit and leads us out of this dire economic condition. The wall street, however, did not share people's optimism and tumbled more than 5% for the day due to concern about nation's banking system.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/16/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

The 4th-quarter earning report season started this past week. With all the gloom and doom earning announcements and outlooks for the year from different companies so far, the stock market took a beating. The S&P 500 index lost 4.5% and the NASDAQ composite went down 2.7% for the week. However, the indexes are still above their low in November, 2008 and the STO's are still heading up albeit below 50. Next week, more companies will report their earnings. If the earnings are better than expected, maybe we will see a substantial relief rally since investors already expected a bad quarter. Otherwise, we will see a retest of the November low.

iEF and sETF ranking update, 1/13/2009

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Fund Rankin Update, 1/09/2009

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

The unemployment rate jumped to a 16-year high of 7.2%, and the stock market took it on the chin. The S&P 500 index lost 4.5% and the NASDAQ composite index went down 3.7% for the week. The economy recovery has a long way to go and the market is still very weak.

Due to the downward spiral of oil price, the Fidelity select air transportation fund has been going strong. Its price has broken the 28 week moving average and the STO has also climbed above 50. The AMI went from -0.9 last week to 0.7 this week. We will see how its price trend develops in this weak market condition during the next few weeks.

iEF and sETF ranking update, 1/6/2009

Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at : http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Fund Rankings Update, 1/2/09

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/

Stock market started out the year with a big rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 258 points on the first trading day of the year and climbed above 9000 for the first time in the last two months. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6.1%, the S&P 500 index increased 6.8% , and the NASDAQ composite index gained 6.7%. Their weekly stochatics are increasing but till below 50. We are closely following the market movement and see if the stock market can maintain the momentum going forward.