Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell NMGIX, Buy CBSAX.
iEF and sETF rankings update and Market Review, 12/29/2009
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at :http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
iETF and sETF ranking table will be updated over the weekend together with the other ranking tables, starting Jan. 1, 2010.
Stock markets will close the year in another two days and I do not expect they will change much. The S&P 500 index began this year with 903, continuing the spiral downward tend from the end of last year due the the economy meltdown. It reached the low of 682 on March 5, losing 24.4%. As the economy stabilized, the stock markets rebounded and their momentum turned from negative to positive. By the end of March, the weekly stochastics of S&P 500 index has climbed over 50, and our FEMKX trading system, which is based on stochastics, also issued a buy signal on March 30. However, after the sever down turn, these signals were treated with cautiousness. The confirmation of the signal came in mid-April when the S&P 500 index closed above its 28 week moving average, and all of our model portfolios issued "buy" signals. After the index broke through the moving average, it hovered around the trend line for 3 months building the base and then took off from there in July. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index gained 24.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 20.2% and the NASDAQ composite index went up 45.3%. The technology sectors are leading the way as in any economy recovery phase.
Our stochastics based FEMKX timing model, turned in the best performance this year again. It issued the "buy" signal first in March and still holds the position with a gain of 82%. nSSPp and SELECT model portfolios delivered the second best performance with a gain of 55%. nSSPP bought into FEMKX in April and traded it for ARGFX in August and still holds ARGFX. SELECT moved from cash to FWRLX in April and subsequently made two other trades. It currently holds the FBSOX. The SSPP model portfolio made 3 trades this year with a gain of 27.5% outperformed the S&P 500 index a bit. The ETF, iETF and sETF model portfolios are under performing the S&P 500 index this year. ETF model portfolio made 5 trades and gained only 10%, sETF made 5 trades as well but gained 24%, and iETF made 4 trades making 17.5%. The higher volatility nature of these funds made it difficulty to develop good solid gains as their holding periods seldom last more than 90 days.
Economy recovery is gaining its foothold and the government stimulus programs will keep coming next year. Next year should be a prosper year and I hope it is even better than this year!
Fund Rankings Update, 12/25/2009
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at:http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Santa came to Wall Street this week and gave stock markets a boost. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1126, up 2.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.85%, and the technology heavy Nasdaq composite index gained 3.35% for the week leading the major indexes.
Real Estate and Technology sectors were among the stronger sectors for the past week. In the international front, Brazil and Latin America still held their top ranks.
I have quietly started the ranking table for HSA. It contains the 15 funds in my company's Health Saving Account. These 15 funds are basically large cap, mid cap, small cap index funds, and income funds. I do not think they have enough volatility and the sector coverage such that the ranking system can take advantage to outperform the general market. In addition, the number of funds is too small to set an meaningful threshold. However, I am willing to give it a try. I will apply the similar rule as the other model portfolios but set the threshold at 5. The trading record is posted in the SSPP_Log page, and we shall see how it performs over time.
Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. We will buy FEMKX if its STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its STO[15,1] falls below 75. We bought FEMKX on 3/30 at $12.31. FEMKX closded at $22.30 today with a gain of 81.2% after holding it for 270 days. We are still holding FEMKX since its STO[15,1] currently stands at 76.8, above the selling threshold of 75.
Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L
FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%
FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%
FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 6/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%
CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 3/27/09 $1.00 0.0%
FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31
iEF and sETF rankings update, 12/22/2009
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at :http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEZ, Buy ICF.
Starting from Jan. 1, 2010, I will not update iETF and sETF ranking tables on Tuesday. I will update them over the weekends, together with the other ranking tables.
Starting from Jan. 1, 2010, I will not update iETF and sETF ranking tables on Tuesday. I will update them over the weekends, together with the other ranking tables.
Readers are interested in knowing the performance of my portfolio for the past 2 years using the ranking system. I have posted my fund rankings for more than 5 years. During this period, we have experienced bull market as well as bear (extremely bear) market, especially for the past 2 years with economy gradually recovered from the the collapse of financial sector. In October 2007, the S&P 500 index reached the high of 1567 after years of steady advance from the 1211 at the end of 2004. However, all good things eventually will come to an end. The market subsequently headed downward and the S&P 500 index closed 2007 with 7 points below where it started that year. The stock markets struggled to hang on their gains for most of the 2008 but the finalcial tsunami finally hit the street. In September 2008, financial institutes were in shamble, and the investment capital were frozen. The economy were in the brink of collapse and the stock market went down 25% in a week. Panics set in and the S&P 500 index lost 34% in 2008 and continued the slide in 2009. The market finally hit the bottom in March 2009 as economy started its fragile recovery. From the high of 1567 to the bottom of 683, the S&P 500 index lost 56% during this bear market. Since March 2009, the market has recovered quite strongly, even stronger than the economy recovery. The &P 500 index has gained 63% from its low in March and 20% from the the beginning of the year.
The chart below, shows the performance of my portfolio for the past 5 years. I have normalized the value such that it starts at 1 in Dec. 2004. In 3 years, by the end of 2007, my portfolio had doubled in value, averaging 26% a year and outperformed the market. For the first nine months in 2008, the value of my portfolio was flat compared to the downward trend in S&P 500 index. As no one can escape from the financial tsunami, my portfolio went down as well at the end of 2008, losing 18 % for the year. I stayed on the side line for 6 months from October 2008 to March 2009 following the ranking system. In March and April, the buying signals started to show up and I started to take positions. By December, my portfolio has recovered from the loss and has made all time high.
The ranking system will not prevent us from the loss totally but will reduce our exposure to the risk when the time is bad and lessen our loss. When the up trend come back, the ranking system will take advantage of the trend and deliver performance better than the market average.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!
Fund Rankings Update, 12/18/2009
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Another week of consolidation. It seems that investors are afraid to commit during this end of the year period and the stocks end up mixed for the week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1102, down 0.36%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decrease 1.36%, and the Nasdaq composite index gain 0.98% for the week.
Technology sectors were strong for the week due to better-than-expected earning announcements from RIM and Oracle. The emergent markets lost their shine this week due the strong dollar.
Another week of consolidation. It seems that investors are afraid to commit during this end of the year period and the stocks end up mixed for the week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1102, down 0.36%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decrease 1.36%, and the Nasdaq composite index gain 0.98% for the week.
Technology sectors were strong for the week due to better-than-expected earning announcements from RIM and Oracle. The emergent markets lost their shine this week due the strong dollar.
iEF and sETF rankings update, 12/15/2009
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at :http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Starting from Jan. 1, 2010, I will update iETF and sETF ranking tables over the weekends, together with the other ranking tables.
Starting from Jan. 1, 2010, I will update iETF and sETF ranking tables over the weekends, together with the other ranking tables.
Fund Rankings Update, 12/11/2009
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Stocks have been hovering around the 1100 level of the S&P500 index for the past two months. Will the Santa rally come to Wall street next week? We would like to hope so with the backdrop of the stronger than expected retail sale in November. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1106, up 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.8%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 0.18% for the week.
The real estate sector is coming strong this week, Latin America and Brazil are still the top dogs in the international front.
Stocks have been hovering around the 1100 level of the S&P500 index for the past two months. Will the Santa rally come to Wall street next week? We would like to hope so with the backdrop of the stronger than expected retail sale in November. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1106, up 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.8%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 0.18% for the week.
The real estate sector is coming strong this week, Latin America and Brazil are still the top dogs in the international front.
iEF and sETF rankings update, 12/8/2009
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at :http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Starting from Jan. 1, 2010, I will update iETF and sETF ranking tables over the weekends, together with the other ranking tables.
Starting from Jan. 1, 2010, I will update iETF and sETF ranking tables over the weekends, together with the other ranking tables.
Fund Rankings Update, 12/04/2009
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF have been posted at: http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Stocks shook off Dubai debt crisis and were encouraged by the unexpected drop of job less rate. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1105, up 1.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.8%, and the technology heavy Nasdaq composite index gained 2.6% for the week.
In the monthly chart of the S&P 500 index below, the index is well above its trend line and the Stochastics is at 71 as of 12/1/2009. Although it does not mean we are going straight up from here but overall market trend looks pretty good.
Stocks shook off Dubai debt crisis and were encouraged by the unexpected drop of job less rate. The SP 500 index closed this week at 1105, up 1.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.8%, and the technology heavy Nasdaq composite index gained 2.6% for the week.
In the monthly chart of the S&P 500 index below, the index is well above its trend line and the Stochastics is at 71 as of 12/1/2009. Although it does not mean we are going straight up from here but overall market trend looks pretty good.
iEF and sETF rankings update, 12/1/2009
Rankings of Average Momentum Index(AMI) for iETF and sETF have been posted at :http://yechen.pan.googlepages.com/
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWO, Buy EWZ
Starting from Jan. 1, 2010, I will update iETF and sETF ranking tables over the weekends, together with the other ranking tables.
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWO, Buy EWZ
Starting from Jan. 1, 2010, I will update iETF and sETF ranking tables over the weekends, together with the other ranking tables.
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