Fund rankings and FEMKX update, 6/25/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stocks failed to maintain their upward momentum. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1076 down 3.65%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.94%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 3.74% for the week. The S&P 500 index closed down below its 28 week moving average and seems to march downward to test the critical 1040-1050 level.

Here is the monthly update for our FEMKX timing system. This system has timed the market pretty well in the past. We will buy FEMKX if its slow STO[15,1] climbs above 50, hold at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. We sold FEMKX on May 10 at $22.37 and moved to cash position. The STO[15,1] of FEMKX stands at 40.2 this week below the buying threshold of 50.

Fund Buy On Buy@ Sell On Sell@ P/L

FEMKX 03/26/07 $25.15 08/06/07 $29.53 17.42%

FEMKX 09/10/07 $28.98 12/28/07 $33.82 16.71%

FEMKX 04/28/08 $31.73 06/13/08 $30.81 -2.90%

CASH 06/13/08 $1.00 03/27/09 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/30/09 $12.31 01/25/10 $21.96 78.4%

CASH 01/25/10 $1.00 03/15/10 $1.00 0.0%

FEMKX 03/15/10 $22.62 05/10/10 $22.37 -1.11%

CASH 05/10/10 $1.00

Fund rankings update, 6/18/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Stocks continued their rebound for the second week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1117 up 2.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.35%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 2.95% for the week. The S&P 500 index closed 5 points above it 28 week moving average. We need to wait for its slow STO[15,1] to break above 50 for confirmation of the up-trend(see chart below).

Fund rankings update, 6/11/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in ETF mdoel portfolio: Sell IJS, Buy IYR.

Trading signal occurs in sETF mdoel portfolio: Sell IAT, Buy ICF.

After three losing weeks, stock finally turned positive. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1091 up 2.51%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.81%, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 1.1% for the week. However, all the indexes are below their 28 week moving averages. The support line now becomes the resistance. It may take some time for the major indexes to break the resistance to resume the up trend.

The current stock sell-off have pulled down the momentum of most of the sectors into negative territory. Only a few sectors, like real estate, transportation and leisure still maintain positive momentum. It is interesting to see that four out of our seven model portfolios are holding real estate sector funds right now. Our ETF and sETF model portfolios move to IYR and ICF this week, the nSSPP model portfolio moved to REIT index fund last week, while our SSPP model portfolio has held FRESX for more than five months since January. For the ranking strategy during the sell-off, the holding will keep switching to the strongest sector which resist the downward pressure the most. If the down trend is short-live, this holding is usually among the strongest sectors to rebound. However, if the down trend persists, the momentum of the last hold out will turn negative, and we will move CASH position since there won't be any funds with positive momentum.

Fund rankings update, 6/4/2010

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, nSSPP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.atspace.com/

Trading signal occurs in HSA mdoel portfolio: Sell CBSAX, Buy Cash.

Trading signal occurs in nSSPP mdoel portfolio: Sell ARGFX, Buy REIT Index.

President Obama is frustrated over the Gulf Oil Spill while investors are frustrated over the pace of economy recovery. The anemic job creation by the private sector in the May job report on Friday pulled down the major market indexes by more than three percents in a day. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1064 down 2.25%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.02%, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 1.68% for the week.

The monthly chart of S&P 500 index shows that the uptrend support has been broken and the momentum is heading downward. The S&P 500 index broke through its long term resistance in July 2009 establishing the current multi-year uptrend. However, the uptrend seems to be disrupted by the recent market sell-off. We do not know whether this signals the start of a down trend or it is just merely a deep correction. Under these conditions, I will be cautious and move to the sideline. According to our trend following principle, we will wait before the index climbs above its trend line again.