Fund Rankings Update, 8/26/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FRESX Buy FNMIX.

Stock markets, trying to build a bottom, turned in a nice rebound from their support level this past week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1176 up 4.74%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.32%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 5.89%.

Last week I pointed out that there is a support at 1100-1120 for S&P 500 index, and I am glad to see the support held up well and the index had a nice technical rebound. However, judging from the severity of this correction and the weakness of the investor's sentiment, the index will stay below the trend line for a while and the support may be tested again in the future.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/19/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash.

Fear prevailed on Wall street and the major stock indexes plunged again. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1123 down 4.69%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.01%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 6.62%. Technically S&P 500 index is at the short term support level around 1100-1120. I hope the support level can hold and the index can stabilize at this level.

Our FEMKX timing model has issued a sell signal. Its momentum indicator, STO[15,1], has failed to reach beyond 70 after climbed above 50 a month ago and dipped below 50 again 2 weeks ago. After holding the fund for 32 days, we will take the loss for this trade and move to the side line.

Fund Rankings Updates, 8/12/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

S&P 's downgrade of US debt triggered stormy reactions from investors. Stock markets went though a wildest ride this past week which can be illustrated by Dow Jones Industrial Average's triple-digit swing every day. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1178 down 1.72%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.53%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.96%.

After violently fell through the trend line, S&P 500 index is looking for a support level to build the base as shown in the weekly chart. Right now we are just in the initial phase when the index abruptly fell below the trend line and the momentum indicator headed downward rapidly. It will take a while for the index to find a comfort zone and stabilize there. So the questions are, where is the base and how long will it stay there. From the weekly chart, the index bounced off the intra-week low of 1100 indicating that there may be a short term support. From the past two similar situations in September 2008 and April 2010, it took markets about 6 -7 months to recover from the initial collapse and that may give us some idea about the duration. Fundamentally, the support level and duration are determined by whether we are already in a economic recession, heading toward a recession, or if we can avoid the recessionary path and return to the growth.

The intensity of this market collapse can also be observed in the ranking tables. The AMI indicator has turn negatives for number one rank funds in several ranking tables which do not contain bond or income funds. This only happened once during January-March time frame in 2009, but that time markets had stayed in the bottom for a while and poised for a rally. No doubt that the market volatility have increased greatly in the recent years due to trading technology advancement. Sell-offs are getting more abrupt and intense while rallies are gradual and slow. By using weekly closing prices, smoothing algorithm, and holding periods, I have tried to reduced the effect from market volatility. But no strategy is hundred percent as human psychology is erratic and unpredictable. We just have to accept that loss is part of the stock/fund tradings.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/5/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42627, Buy 42635.
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBIOX, Buy FDLSX.
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy EWJ.
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWY, Buy EWM.

Investors' fear of recession coupled with frustration towards politician's inability to resolve US long term debt issue have finally dragged the market down big time, and delivered Wall Street the worst week in two years. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1199 down 7.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.75%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 8.13%!

The weekly chart of S&P 500 index shows the severity of the selling. The index has struggled above the trend line in the past few weeks, and fallen sharply below the support with momentum indicator fell from 70 to 40 in one week. The broad based intensive selling has dramatically changed the momentum rankings in our ranking tables. Almost all the ranking tables have issued trading signals and moved to safer positions. Looking back at our trading history, the last time this happened is in August 2008 before the financial breakdown. Although economic conditions are quite different then and now, stock chart pattern provided similar technical concerns. It is important to follow through whatever the investing strategies you have especially during these kind of periods as they can prevent emotional tradings out of fear.