Fund Rankings Update, 5/25/2012

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings


Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell FKASX, Buy IUTIX.


Technical rebound occurred at the important 200 day moving average for all the three major indexes.  SP 500 index closed this week at 1317, up 1.74%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.69%, and Nasdaq composite index increased 2.11%. 


It is encouraging to see all the three major stock indexes managed to stay above their 200 day moving averages in the daily charts. We should see some short term rebound in the coming weeks to relieve the excess selling pressure. However, the momentum index of S&P 500 index is just about to enter the oversold area in its weekly chart. Longer term, we may see the index stay below or around its 28 week moving average for a few more weeks or a couple of more months before the index turns around.

Daily Chart of S&P500 index

Weekly Chart of S&P500 index

Fund rankings update, 5/18/2012

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings


Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDGRX, Buy FRESX.


Concern about European's debt crisis and the pace of US economy growth plunged the stock markets again. SP 500 index closed this week at 1295, down 4.3%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.52%, and Nasdaq composite index dropped 5.28%. 


S&P 500 index has fallen below the support level of 1300 that I mentioned last week, and there is no letting up of the selling pressure.  Price movement of the index looks pretty similar to the sell-off in August last year. The index looks to be heading lower for another couple of weeks before it stabilizes. Looking back, the sell signal from our FEMKX timing system two weeks ago proves to be the right call. 

In this sell-off environment, patient is virtue. Markets tend to overshoot in both ends, and this may create some buying opportunities. For example, let's look at APPLE. I mentioned a few weeks ago that Apple can be bought at $550 as a riskier trade or at the price where it meets its 28 week moving average for a safer trade. Apple closed this week at $530 and its 28 week moving average is at $490. With the current bearish market sentiment, we may have the opportunity to buy Apple at around $500 or even below when the price meets the 28 week moving average. 

Fund Rankings Update, 5/11/2012

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings


Weak confidence and European's voters revolt on austerity measures plunged the global stock markets. SP 500 index closed this week at 1353, down 1.15%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.67%, and Nasdaq composite index dropped 0.76%.


S&P 500 index has fallen to intra-week low of 1343, bounced back and closed at 1353. I have pointed it out that there is a short term support at 1340 - 1350. With the declining daily and weekly momenta, it now looks like the index will come down further to the next support at 1300.  

    

Fund Rankings Update, 5/4/2012

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings


Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio, Sell 050587 (LSV LGE CP VALUE EQ), Buy 42627  (SSGA REIT INDEX).
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio, Sell EWG, Buy EWS.


Friday's US job report showed that the economy only created 115,000 jobs in April, well below Wall Street's expectation of 170,000. Investors feared that the slowdown in US economy will cause a repeat of stocks' performance last year, and started dumping stocks. SP 500 index closed this week at 1369, down 2.44%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.44%, and Nasdaq composite index dropped 3.68%.    


Weekly chart of S&P500 index shows that the index has been in a consolidation mode trading between 1370 and 1410 for the past four weeks, and the Stochastic indicator shows that its momentum is deteriorating and heading downward. Will the index continue its consolidation to digest the lofty gain from this rally and wait for the 28 week moving average to catch up, or will the index fall to the short term support at 1340 - 1350 level in the coming weeks meeting the rising 28 week moving average and bounce from there?  It will be interesting to see how this one play out.