Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
Friday's relief rally after European leaders reached a deal to aid their troubling banks turned the major stock indices around. SP 500 index struggled for the first four day of the week but closed the week at 1362, up 2.03%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.89%, while Nasdaq composite index increased 1.47%.
In the past few weeks, stock markets have slowly turned around. In the weekly chart below, S&P 500
has been gaining momentum although still flirting around 28 week moving average. The index is about 100 points above the low 4 weeks ago. The close of 1362 is right at the short term resistance of 1360 level, which can be see in the daily chart. If the index can hold at this level, the next short term target will be 1390.
On the sector front, the defensive sectors, such as utility, health care, and real estate are still dominating the ranking tables. Rotation from defensive sectors to more aggressive sectors will happen after the uptrend is more established.
In case you did not notice, last week was the 8th anniversary of this website. You can see from SSPP model trading log that the Dow Jones Industrial Average went from 10395 on 6/24/2004 to 12880 last Friday with only 23.9% gain, and Nasdaq composite index went from 1994 to 2935 with 47.19% profit. Our momentum ranking system outperforms both indices handily with 98.39% gain, averaging 12.96% a year!
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
Weak economy news and rating downgrade of all the major US banks spooked investors and plummeted stock markets on Thursday. All major stock indexes lost more than 2% on Thursday wiping out the gain since Monday. SP 500 index closed this week at 1335, down 0.58%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.99%, while Nasdaq composite index still managed to increase 0.68%.
As seen in the weekly candle stick chart below, bulls and bears are fighting for control around the 28 week moving averages at 1338 with bears had the upper hand last week. The last candle shows the price action during the week: The index opened the week above the 28 week MA, bulls pushed the index to the high of 1370 while bears pulled it down to the low of 1325. Finally bulls came in but still failed to push the index back up and the index ended up closed at 1335, a bit below the 28 week MA. This type of candle (with long wick and short body) indicates the indecision of the market, and sometimes the short term pause or direction change.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
Stocks continue their technical rebound the second week. SP 500 index closed this week at 1342, up 1.3%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.7%, and Nasdaq composite index increased 0.5%.
In the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has closed above its 28 week moving average, and the momentum has come out of the oversold area. An encouraging sign that the index is slowly turning around. However, investors are nervously waiting for Greece election outcome Sunday. I expect that we will see high volatility in the stock markets Monday. Whether Greek people select a pro-bailout government, stocks will have short term violent move one way or the other. The worst outcome in my opinion is that they still fail to form a majority government. In that case, uncertainty lingers and we all know how much stock markets dislike uncertainty.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
Trading signal occurs in Select model portfolio: Sell FSHOX, Buy FSUTX.
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWS, Buy CASH.
Technical rebound occurred again at the important 200 day moving average for all the three major indexes. SP 500 index closed this week at 1325, up 3.73%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.59%, and Nasdaq composite index increased 4.04%.
After briefly fell below their 200 day MA, it is encouraging to see all the three major stock indexes get right back to stay above their 200 day moving averages and their daily momentum gaining traction. While the S&P 500 index is still below the 28 week MA in the weekly chart, its momentum indicator has reversed its downward direction. This gives us some hope that we may have seen the short term bottom and will see the start of consolidation and hopefully the reversal.
After nine weeks of downtrend, we have another two trading signals this week. In SELECT model portfolio, we are moving away from construction and housing sector and get into more conservative utility sector. We have held FSHOX for 6 months with a gain of 19%. In the iETF, we are selling EWS and move to cash because of negative AMI in the first rank. Global regions have under-performed comparing to US stock markets because of European debt crisis and slowdown in China economy. The trades have not been profitable in the past 2 years for iETF model portfolio. With the way Europe is handling its problem, we see the situation will last for a while.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
Stocks suffered the worst day of the year Friday due to continuing worries about European debt crisis and worst than expected US employment report. SP 500 index closed this week at 1278, down 3.02%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.7 % and Nasdaq composite index decreased 3.17%.
The technical rebound last week unfortunately did not materialized. The sharp drop on Friday made S&P 500 index fell below its 200 day moving average. If the index can not get right back above the support, we will have a long summer to endure. This pessimism outlook can be observed from the weekly chart as well. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the index has closed below its 28 week moving average for 3 weeks, the momentum is below 20 in the oversold territory, and no sign of market reversal. Some good economy news are needed to excite this market.
