Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
Investors' pessimism about a deal can be reached by year end to avoid the fiscal cliff drove the market down 5 days in a row. S&P 500 index closed the week at 1402, down 1.94%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.923%, and Nasdaq composite decreased 2.01%. Hopefully President and congressional leaders, in their last effort, can strike a deal over the weekend to lessen the blow from drastic tax hikes and spending cuts. The deal will have smaller scope but investors will look at any deal as a positive development to solve government's debt problem while avoid a recession.
The S&P 500 index started this year at 1257, went up to 1422 in April before giving them all back in May and June due to European debt crisis. The index close at 1266 in June at the low of the down cycle. After some relief in Europe's debt situation, the index climbed back up and made a second attempt to reach a new high of 1474 in September. However, due to weak company earnings, the index experienced a correction in September and October. The index reached the low of 1343 two weeks after the presidential election. With Fed's help, housing and construction industries made a comeback in the later part of the year and economy looks to be improving if not for the anxiety of fiscal cliff. The S&P 500 index rebounded from the November low and close the year at 1402 with a gain of 11.5% for the year.
This year, our sETF, ETF, and SELECT model portfolios are outperforming the general markets with sETF gaining a whopping 65 %. The FEMKX timing model is about on par with the market, while SSPP and RSP model portfolios' performance are a bit lagging the market. HSA and iETF are the two bottom performing portfolios with iETF model portfolio, due to weak international stock markets and high volatility, gave a negative return for the year. All the trading records and the trading performance can be found in the trading log pages.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
Trading signal occurs in FEMKX model portfolio: Sell Cash Buy FEMKX.
After surviving the end of the world, will we survive the fiscal cliff? S&P 500 index closed down almost one percent Friday after republican cancelled the vote for plan B to avoid the fiscal cliff. However, S&P 500 index still closed the week at 1430, up 1.17%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.43%, and Nasdaq composite increased 1.67%. With fiscal cliff negotiation in jeopardy, the trading next week will be more volatile than ever.
After the last sell signal, the momentum indicator, STO[15,1], of FEMKX has never dipped below 50. Instead, its momentum came back up above 80 and the price has broken above its resistance at $22.40. In this case, the last sell signal is treated as a false signal and a buy signal is issued again after 30 days. In the past, we have had a couple of false buy signals, but this is the first false sell signal in the more than 5 year history of the FEMKX timing system. It just shows that no system is 100%, but follow it with discipline is the way to achieve longer term success.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBMPX Buy FSHOX.
As we getting closer to "Fiscal Cliff", investors grow more and more cautious. S&P 500 index closed the week at 1413, down 0.32%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.15%, and Nasdaq composite, dragged down again Apple, decreased 0.23%.
Cyclical sectors in the US have been gaining momentum partly due to the lower oil prices. In the SELECT ranking table, automotive and air transportation sector funds have climbed up fast through the ranks. FBMPX is pushed down below 7th rank and a Trading signal was issued to sell FBMPX and buy the number one ranked FSHOX.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
Stock markets closed mixed on good job report, bad consumer sentiment and no progress on "Fiscal Cliff" talk. S&P 500 index closed the week at 1418, up 0.13%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.99%, and Nasdaq composite, dragged down by Apple, decreased 1.07%.
Technically, S&P 500 index is in a good shape. The index has closed above its 28 week moving average consecutively for three weeks. Its stochastic momentum index has climbed above 50 this week. I would expect the market to keep trending higher if not for the prospect of "fiscal cliff." We have learned in the past few years that the stalemate and failure in the political process regarding the fiscal health of the country can disrupt the market violently in a short time. As we get closer to the cliff (23 days left), we should see the market volatility increases in the coming weeks.
Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
Stock markets were greatly influenced by whether progress has been made in negotiation to avoid "Fiscal Cliff." The index closed the week at 1416, up 0.5%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.12%, and Nasdaq composite increased 1.46%.
As US markets are focusing on the outcome of the "Fiscal Cliff" negotiation, global markets have gaining momentum. More and more international funds in European regions and Pacific rim area have higher AMIs than US sector funds. In the US, housing and construction sector is still holding the top rank, but automotive, air transportation and retail sectors are coming up strong.
