YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: May 2013

Fund Rankings Update, 5/24/2013

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
and
HSA Ranking Table
SSPP Ranking Table
New SSPP (RSP) Ranking Table
Select Ranking Table
ETF Ranking Table
sETF Ranking Table
iETF Ranking Table
SSPP, RSP and HSA Trading Logs
Select and FEMKX Trading Logs
ETF, sETF and iETF Trading Logs

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell Ariel (ARGFX), Buy LSV Large Cap (05087).

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Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech about the possibility of tightening money supply on Wednesday spooked the market and reversed the rally in the morning. However, US stock markets held up very well the next day in the face of a 7% drop in Japan's Nikkei index before the market open. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 1649, down 1.07%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.33%, and Nasdaq composite decreased 1.14%.

The daily reversal (stock rallies initially but closes negatively) on Wednesday signaled the start of a consolidation in the next few days shown in the daily chart of S&P500 index. In the daily chart, the momentum is coming down on a rising tend line, however, in the weekly chart the momentum is still staying high with the price quite far above the trend line. A short consolidation to digest the lofty gain so far this year is healthy and will help the rally to continue.

In the RSP ranking table, the momentum of Ariel fund (ARGFX) has slowed down a bit in the recent week. The fund was pushed blew rank 7 and a trading signal was issued in the RSP model portfolio to replace ARGFX with LSV large cap value equity fund (05087).

Daily Chart of S&P 500 index

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/17/2013

Fund Rankings Update, 5/10/2013

Fund Rankings Update, 5/3/2013

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
and
HSA Ranking Table
SSPP Ranking Table
New SSPP (RSP) Ranking Table
Select Ranking Table
ETF Ranking Table
sETF Ranking Table
iETF Ranking Table
SSPP, RSP and HSA Trading Logs
Select and FEMKX Trading Logs
ETF, sETF and iETF Trading Logs

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWD, buy EWJ.

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US economy added 165000 jobs in April, exceeding expectation of 150,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.5% the lowest since 2008. The job report lessen investors' worry about the slow down of economy and push S&P 500 index above the psychological barrier of 1600. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 1614, up 2.03%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.78%, and Nasdaq composite increased 3.03%.

In the weekly chart for S&P 500 index, we start seeing divergence between STO and the price moment. The price is making new high while momentum (STO) stays about the same. We are also entering the seasonal quite summer trading season (the saying: "Sell in May and go away, come back in September). The correction/consolidation may not be imminent and the rally may still has legs, but as the index move further away from its 28 weeks moving average, more caution is needed in trading stocks and funds.

Two trading signals were issued this week: The momentum indicator of FEMKX has climbed above 50 after falling to the low of 43. According to our trading rule, we are moving out from cash position and buy into FEMKX. The second trading signal happened in the iETF momentum ranking table. The AMI rank of EWD (Sweden) was pushed below rank 7 and a trading signal was issued to replace it with the current top rank fund, EWJ(Japan). We have held EWD for a little bit more than one month with a gain of 3%.