Fund Rankings Update, 6/28/2013

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
and 
HSA Ranking Table
SSPP Ranking Table
New SSPP (RSP) Ranking Table
Select Ranking Table
ETF Ranking Table
sETF Ranking Table
iETF Ranking Table
SSPP, RSP and HSA Trading Logs
Select and FEMKX Trading Logs
ETF, sETF and iETF Trading Logs

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As concern for Fed's early exit of easy money policy subsided and economy data showed increase of consumer purchase and order for durable goods in May, investors jumped back into the market and picked up the undervalued stocks due to the market sell-off in the past two weeks.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed  at 1606, up 0.87%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.74%, and Nasdaq composite increased 1.37%.

On Monday, S&P 500 index hit the intraday low of 1560, near the support level I mentioned last week, and bounded back at 1573, which ignited the 3 day rally with the aid of good economy data. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index below, one can see the index bounced off the 28 week moving average and closed the week with a white candle stick. It is a positive sign that the index has stopped its downward spiral and managed to stay above the trend line.  For the correction to be over, I would like to see the momentum indicator turning around and the volatility reduced further. This may take another 2 or 3 weeks. 

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/21/2013

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
and 
HSA Ranking Table
SSPP Ranking Table
New SSPP (RSP) Ranking Table
Select Ranking Table
ETF Ranking Table
sETF Ranking Table
iETF Ranking Table
SSPP, RSP and HSA Trading Logs
Select and FEMKX Trading Logs
ETF, sETF and iETF Trading Logs

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Fed Chairman Bernanke's signaling the scale back of QE later this year validated the fear of investors on Wednesday.  Markets reacted badly to the news with a big sell off dropping DJIA more than 200 points Wednesday and more than 300 points the next day.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed  at 1592, down 2.11%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8%, and Nasdaq composite decreased 1.94%.

Pull back turns into sell-off, and consolidation became correction. S&P 500 index has fallen below the psychological support of 1600. As stated last week, the next logical support for S&P 500 index is at  around 1540.  

Our FEMKX timing system is more sensitive to the general market conditions. Although the fund, FEMKX, itself has not been performed well in the past couple of years due to the weakness in the emergent markets, the timing system has timed the market well. I have overlaid the trading signals generated from FEMKX system to the weekly chart of S&P 500 index for the past 3 years. The only big miss was the false buy and sell signal in July 2011 which resulted in large loss. Again, no system is perfect but with consistency we will come out winning at the end. One suggestion will be applying the FEMKX timing signals to the Ariel fund (ARGFX) in RSP. 

Fund Rankings Update, 6/14/2013

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
and 
HSA Ranking Table
SSPP Ranking Table
New SSPP (RSP) Ranking Table
Select Ranking Table
ETF Ranking Table
sETF Ranking Table
iETF Ranking Table
SSPP, RSP and HSA Trading Logs
Select and FEMKX Trading Logs
ETF, sETF and iETF Trading Logs

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FPBFX, Buy FOCPX.
Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell NAMAX, Buy NAESX.
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYT, Buy IBB.

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Worries abut Fed's tapering of easy money policy pushed the major indexes down for another week.   For the week, S&P 500 index closed  at 1626, down 1.018%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.17%, and Nasdaq composite decreased 1.32%.

In the blog dated 5/24, I indicated the start of the consolidation due to the reversal chart pattern in the daily chart of S&P 500 index. The consolidation has turned into 4 weeks of stock pull back. In the weekly chart below, the momentum indicator of S&P 500 index has fallen below 75 and heading downward. The 28 week moving average stands at 1550 and it may take the index a few weeks to get there if it ever does. From the daily chart, the index has touched and bounced off the 50 day moving average twice in the past two weeks, showing the importance of the 50 day moving average. If the support fails, which I think is likely this time, the next significant support level is 1540 - 1550. 

The four week pull back also causes fund rotation in our momentum ranking tables and position changes in our model portfolios. Small cap funds seem to maintain their momenta better in this pull back.  In SSPP rankings table, the rank of Pacific basin fund dropped dramatically due to the volatility in Japan and weak economy in China, while small cap fund, FOCPX, took the lead in the past 3 weeks. In HSA ranking table, the weakness in the mid cap fund, NAMAX, is replacing by small cap fund, NAESX, and in the ETF ranking table, the transport index IYT is pushing down by several small cap indexes with Biotech index, IBB, still leads the way.

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Fund Rankings Update, 6/7/2013

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
and 
HSA Ranking Table
SSPP Ranking Table
New SSPP (RSP) Ranking Table
Select Ranking Table
ETF Ranking Table
sETF Ranking Table
iETF Ranking Table
SSPP, RSP and HSA Trading Logs
Select and FEMKX Trading Logs
ETF, sETF and iETF Trading Logs

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH.

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Friday's report about US economy adding 175,000 jobs propelled the DJIA 207 points and save the otherwise down week for Wall street.   For the week, S&P 500 index closed  at 1643, up 0.78%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.88%, and Nasdaq composite increased 0.39%.

This 6 month rally started on 11/16/2012 from the low of 1343 and ran up to 1687 on 5/22/2013. Along the way, it has touched the 50 day moving average four times on 1/2, 2/26/, 4/19, 6/6, and has successfully bounced off (tested) the trend line the first 3 times to sustain the rally. The subsequent market reaction on Friday provided a positive sign for the rally to continue but we will see in the next couple of week that if this is a bully trap or genuine successful re-test. 

Daily chart of S&P 500 index

The market consolidation since May 17 and the weak global markets caused three consecutive down weeks for Fidelity emergent market fund, FEMKX, and pulled its momentum indicator down to 38, well below the sell threshold of 75 for our FEMKX market timing system. According the the system, a sell signal was issued to sell the fund and move to cash position. The system has held the fund for 32 days with a loss of 4.8% (see FEMKX trading log). 

Weekly chart of FEMKX 

Fund Rankings Update, 5/31/2013

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings
and 
HSA Ranking Table
SSPP Ranking Table
New SSPP (RSP) Ranking Table
Select Ranking Table
ETF Ranking Table
sETF Ranking Table
iETF Ranking Table
SSPP, RSP and HSA Trading Logs
Select and FEMKX Trading Logs
ETF, sETF and iETF Trading Logs


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Strong housing recovery and consumer confidence provided more evidence that economy growth is gaining momentum. However, worries about Fed's tapering of easing policy due to good economy health handed markets the second down week.  S&P 500 index closed  at 1630, down 1.147%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.23%, and Nasdaq composite decreased 0.09%.

We have witnessed another daily reversal on Friday. Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 70 points in the morning but late sell-of in afternoon pushed the index down 208 points. We can see the same reversal action in the weekly chart this week. S&P 500 as driven up 25 points to the high of 1675 in mid week but closed the week at the low of 1630, down 19 points. These reversals indicated that the markets are weakening and the consolidation is expected to continue.